Transcript No Slide Title

Testimony of
Wayne A. Cornelius
Director, Center for
Comparative Immigration
Studies, UC-San Diego
To the House Judiciary
Committee, Field Hearing
on Immigration,
San Diego,
August 2, 2006
U.S. border enforcement spending
5000
Concentrated border
enforcement strategy
initiated
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
Year
20
00
19
90
19
80
19
70
0
19
60
Millons of 1998 US $
4500
Southwest border apprehensions
1800000
1600000
1400000
FY 06: 1,146,600*
1200000
1000000
FY 94: 979,101
800000
600000
Concentrated border
enforcement strategy
initiated
400000
200000
86
FY
87
FY
88
FY
89
FY
90
FY
91
FY
92
FY
93
FY
94
FY
95
FY
96
FY
97
FY
98
' FY
99
FY
00
FY
01
FY
02
FY
03
FY
04
FY
05
FY
06
85
FY
84
FY
83
FY
82
FY
81
FY
80
FY
79
FY
78
FY
77
FY
76
FY
75
FY
74
FY
73
FY
72
FY
71
FY
FY
FY
70
0
*Projected, based on 2% decline during Oct. 1, 2005 – July 15, 2006 period
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
Expenditures (In Real
1990$ Miillions)
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
0
19
8
19 9
9
19 0
91
19
9
19 2
9
19 3
94
19
9
19 5
96
19
9
19 7
9
19 8
99
20
0
20 0
0
20 1
02
20
0
20 3
0
20 4
05
20
06
Apprehensions (In
Thousands)
U.S Border Enforcement Expenditure and Apprehensions
Fiscal Year
Apprehensions
Expenditures
*Apprehensions in 2006 projected, based on 2% decline during Oct. 1, 2005 – July 15, 2006 period
Stock
of unauthorized immigrants
Unauthorized
Clearly at
living
in
the
United
States
New High — Trend Uncertain
New
High
—
Trend
Uncertain
(estimate by Pew Hispanic Center, March 2006)
Millions of Unauthorized Migrants Living in the U.S.
11.1
(2005)
8.4
4
3
5
3.9
Net growth, 2000-2005:
500,000 per year
3.3
2.5
4-80 1-82
6-86
6-89
10-92
10-96
4-00
3-05
Migrants Take More Dangerous Routes Around
Border Patrol Operations
Major
Border Patrol
Operations
New Migration
Routes
SOURCE: Cornelius 2005
Source: UCSD survey in Yucatan, 2006
Actual border crossing experiences of
unauthorized migrants
(among those apprehended one or more
times on most recent trip to the border)
 92% of Jalisco + Zacatecas migrants were
able to enter eventually, on same trip
 97% of Yucatec migrants eventually
succeeded
 Most entered successfully on 1st or 2nd try
Knowledge of intensified border enforcement
• 75% of unauthorized
migrants from Jalisco,
Zacatecas, and
Yucatan knew about
enhanced border
enforcement efforts
Perceived difficulty of clandestine entry
(among those with U.S. migration experience)
% who believe it is “much more
difficult” to evade the Border Patrol
when crossing the border now:
Jalisco, Zacatecas:
62%
Yucatan:
68%
Source: UCSD surveys in Jalisco and Zacatecas (Jan. 2005), and Yucatan
(Jan.-Feb. 2006)
Perceived danger of illegal entry
• 78% of recent migrants from Jalisco, Zacatecas
believe it is “very dangerous” to cross the border
without papers (81% of Yucatecan migrants)
• 64% of Jalisco, Zac.
migrants knew
someone who died
trying to cross border
(12% of Yucatecan
migrants)
Perceived danger of illegal entry
(among Yucatecan migrants)
• 69% had seen or
listened to PSAs
warning of dangers of
clandestine crossings
• 9.6% said warnings
had some effect on
their plans to migrate
U.S. Border Patrol-sponsored TV
spot broadcast in Mexico, 2005
Effects of border enforcement on
migration behavior
 Most would-be migrants are wellinformed about the difficulty and
hazards of clandestine entry.
 Such knowledge has no effect on the
propensity to migrate.
 Unauthorized migrants are willing to
take greater risks and pay much more
to people-smugglers to reduce risk and
gain entry.
 Despite the border build-up, most
unauthorized migrants still succeed in
entering on the first or second try.
 Migration strategies have been
affected by enhanced border
enforcement (crossing points have
changed; use of smugglers has
increased), but illegal entry attempts
are not being deterred.
“We don’t care if we
have to walk eight
days, fifteen days—it
doesn’t matter the
danger we put
ourselves in. If and
when we cross alive,
we will have a job to
give our families the
best.”
– Miguel, 28 yr.-old
migrant to the U.S.,
February 2006
Unintended consequences of border
enforcement have been more important than
the predicted outcome (deterrence of unwanted
immigration)
 creating new opportunities for professional
people-smugglers
 making borders more lethal
(increasing migrant fatalities)
 higher rates of permanent settlement in
the U.S.
of people-smugglers by
migrants
UseUse
of people-smugglers
byunauthorized
unauthorized
migrants
(on most
recent
trip to U.S.)
from
Yucatan
(on most recent trip to U.S.)
Yes: 92.6%
No: 7.4%
Source: UCSD survey in Yucatan, January-February 2006
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Average Coyote Fee Paid in Dollars: 1969-2004
1970
1980
1990
Years
Source: UCSD survey of returned migrants in Yucatan, 2006
2000
N=202
Deaths due to unauthorized border crossings,
detected in U.S.-Mexico borderlands
600
516
499
500
400
329
358
387
417
371
373
300
200
149
168*
87
100
61
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Source: Mexican Consulates/Mexican Ministry of Foreign Relations. Includes unidentified
bodies and bodies found on both sides of border
*through May 31, 2006
Causes of death among
unauthorized border crossers
250
200
Environmental causes
150
(hypothermia, dehydration,
sunstroke, asphyxia)
100
50
Drowning
0
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Source: Mexican Consulates/Mexican Ministry of Foreign Relations
Extending stays in the United States
• 37% of Jalisco + Zacatecas migrants
stayed longer than expected on most
recent U.S. sojourn
(51% among Yucatecos)
• 79% know someone who
remained in the U.S.
because of stronger border
enforcement
Source: UCSD surveys in Jalisco, Zacatecas, and Yucatan, 2005-2006.
900 miles
Sub-Saharan
migration to Spain
500
mi.
Mauritania
Policy recommendations
• Legalize most unauthorized immigrants
already here, and encourage
naturalization.
• Provide more legal entry opportunities
for new immigrants, both high-skilled
and low-skilled, temporary and
permanent.
• Create alternatives to emigration in
sending areas (targeted development
programs that create higher-paying jobs)
Employment-based immigrant visas
Current cap: 140,000 per year
(of which 5,000-10,000 are usually
allocated to low-skilled workers)
3,261 employment-based visas were
issued to Mexican immigrants in 2003
________________________________________
= manufactured illegality?
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20 9
0
20 0
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20 1
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20 2
03
Per Capita GDP
35000
Ratio of U.S./
Mexico GDP
25000
U.S.
Per capita GDP in Mexico (2000 US$)
NAFTA
20000
3
15000
2
10000
Mexico
1
5000
0
0
Per capita GDP in US (2000 US$)
US GDP/Mex GDP
Ratio US/Mex Per Capita GDP
40000
6
GDP per capita in Mexico and the United States
5
30000
4
Principal reason for most recent
migration to the United States
Higher wages in U.S. than in Mexico
36%
Home construction, debt repayment, or
starting business in Mexico
16
More job opportunities in U.S.
15
Family reunification
12
Vacation
8
Returning to the same job in U.S.
3
Other
10
Total
100%
Source: UCSD survey of Yucatec migrants, 2006
Questions and further information:
Wayne Cornelius
Center for Comparative Immigration Studies, UCSD
Tel. 858-822-4447
[email protected]
http://www.ccis-ucsd.org