Transcript Economic Vitality and Political Legitimacy

Economic Vitality and Political
Legitimacy
SOUTHEAST ASIA IN AN ERA OF FINANCIAL
CRISES
“It’s the economy, stupid”
 Or is it?
Singapore’s 2010 GDP growth was 14.5%
 PAP took a “pasting” in 2011 elections
1997-1998
 Fall of Suharto in Indonesia
 Mahathir-Anwar split in Malaysia
 New government and constitution in Thailand
This morning’s session
 Lecture One: Changes in Southeast Asian economies
 Regional “commodity chains”
 Lecture Two: Why are many SEA economies so
successful?
Southeast Asian economies
 Large populations
 Largish economies
 Average 2009 pci (PPP $) near $5,000
 Malaysia near $14,000
 Myanmar near $1,000
Why was the “hamburger” crisis less severe?
 Commodity prices (China)
 Demand (China)
 Lessons learned
healthy banks
current account surpluses
 Fiscal stimulus
De-coupled from Europe and NA?
 Falling shares of exports to EU and NA
 Rising shares of exports to China
 But….
ASEAN
 1967
 1992: AFTA
 AEC by 2015
Vertical specialization
 Middle income trap?
 Global economic adjustments
From flying geese to commodity chains
 Textile industry
 Transport machinery and electronics
Further readings?
 OECD, Southeast Asian Economic Outlook, 2010
 Dan Slater, Ordering Power. Contentious Politics
and Authoritarian Leviathans in Southeast Asia
(Cambridge University Press, 2010)
 Olivier Cattaneo, Gary Gereffi, and Cornelia Staritz,
eds. Global Value Chains in a Postcrisis World: A
Development Perspective (World Bank, 2010)