Transcript Tax Incentive Budget:

A Tax Expenditure is:
 defined as “revenue losses … which
allow a special exclusion, exemption, or
deduction…” relative to “normal income
tax law” (“normal” is left undefined and
open to interpretation)1
 intended to measure those tax provisions
that could have been spending programs
instead of tax breaks
1. The official definition is in the Congressional Budget and Impoundment
Act of 1974 (Public Law 93-344), but its spirit was defined by Stanley
Surrey, who in 1967 instructed his staff in the Treasury Office for Tax Policy
to list income tax preferences that were similar to expenditure programs.
Tax Expenditure Budget:
The size and scope of tax
expenditures, many of which are
tax incentives for some behavior,
e.g. mortgage interest
deduction which encourages some
to buy houses (and finance their
purchases with debt).
Size of Government Spending Categories Compared
with Tax Expenditures, tax year 2007
Tax Expenditures
Non-defense Discretionary Spending
Social Security
Medicaid and Medicare
Other Mandatory
Interest
Source: TPC tax
expenditure estimates,
OMB spending
categories.
Defense
0
200
400
600
Billions of dollars
800
Grew until TRA86, up again
Source: Burman, Geissler, and Toder (2008) at http://www.urban.org/publications/1001234.html
Selected tax expenditures, nominal dollars
175
150
125
Retirement Plans
Employer-Sponsored
Health Insurance
100
Mortgage Interest
75
Charitable Contributions
Earned Income Credit
50
Source: Annual JCT tax
expenditure estimates.
25
Year
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
0
Selected tax expenditures, relative to GDP
120
100
80
Pensions
Employer-sponsored
Health Insurance
60
Mortgage Interest
Charitable contributions
Earned Income Credit
40
Source: Annual JCT tax
expenditure estimates, CBO
projections for GDP.
20
Year
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
0
Table 1: Non-Business Tax Expenditures in 2007, Billions $
TPC
OMB
JCT
Exclusions and above-the-line deductions
Retirement plans
126.8
108.2
132.9
Health insurance
141.5
145.7
109.5
Student loan interest
1.1
0.8
0.9
Retirement benefits
23
26.9
22.4
Other
37.2
50.9
56.7
Special capital tax rates
94.8
53.1
127.1
Itemized deductions
Mortgage interest
92.4
79.9
73.7
Charitable contributions
43.3
47.4
41.9
Medical expenses
5.6
4.2
8.4
Other
39.4
49.5
51.5
Non-refundable credits
Education (HOPE, Lifetime learning)
4.2
5.5
3.1
Other
3.8
3.5
3.9
Refundable credits
Child credit
44.9
47.5
45
Earned income credit
43.7
41.8
44.7
Total, all tax expenditures
701.8
664.9
721.7
Total with interactions
760.5
Source: Burman, Geissler, and Toder (2008). Estimates are from the Tax Policy
Center (TPC), Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT), and Treasury, as reported by the
Office of Management and Budget (OMB).
See full paper at http://www.urban.org/publications/1001234.html
Table 2: Distributional Effects of Eliminating Groups of Tax Expenditures:
Percentage Change in After-Tax Income, by Income Quintile
(2007, with no AMT, with interactions)
Bottom Second Middle Fourth Top
Exclusions from Income
-0.54 -2.99 -3.79 -3.68 -4.74
Above the line deductions
-0.01 -0.06 -0.09 -0.11 -0.08
Special tax rates for capital gains and dividends
0 -0.01 -0.04 -0.12 -2.11
Itemized deductions
-0.02 -0.11 -0.38 -1.09 -2.91
Non-refundable credits
-0.05 -0.28 -0.33 -0.23 -0.06
Refundable credits
-5.49
-5
-2.2 -0.99 -0.25
Total: all provisions
-6.52 -8.16 -6.76 -6.79 -11.36
Source: Burman, Geissler, and Toder (2008)
See full paper at http://www.urban.org/publications/1001234.html
Top
1%
-2.9
-0.06
-5.87
-3.24
0
0
-13.53
All
-4.19
-0.08
-1.26
-1.97
-0.14
-1.14
-9.57