Transcript Document

13th International Oil Summit
Abdalla Salem El-Badri
OPEC Secretary General
The Current Oil Market
Paris, France
3rd May 2012
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Challenging times for the oil industry
Last year:
Global economic turbulence
Unrest in the MENA region
Japan’s triple disaster
This year:
Continued economic uncertainty
Geopolitical developments
Supply disruptions in some non-OPEC regions, although Libya is returning to
pre-uprising levels
However, there has been, and remains, NO shortage of oil in the market
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The world economy: moving to a lower growth trajectory?
Real GDP growth (in %)
2.2
1.7
USA
-0.3
Euro-z
Japan
2012
2011
1.4
1.8
-0.7
8.2
China
9.2
6.9
7.0
India
3.7
4.2
4.8
3.2
Russia
OPEC
-5
0
5
10
Global economic growth patchy
US showing some positive signs, but Euro-zone still struggling with sovereign debt
Japan some improvement, but still suffering from last year’s triple disaster
Data suggests China is slowing, but will this trend continue?
Concerns that OECD problems will spill over into developing countries
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High levels of open interest contracts
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Some non-OPEC disruptions, but overall supply increasing
World oil supply
Non-OPEC supply disruptions; Syria, South Sudan, Yemen, North Sea
Strong increase in the first quarter of this year from other non-OPEC supply, e.g.
North America
Libyan crude has a made a quick return to the market
Overall, world oil supply is increasing
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OECD commercial oil stocks
(up to end-March 2012)
Million barrels
Days of forward cover
63
2850
61
59.2
2750
59
57
2638
2650
56
55
2634
53
2550
51
Range 07-11
Avg 07-11
2011
Range 07-11
2012
Average 07-11
2012
2011
49
2450
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Month
8
9
10 11 12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12
Month
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Steady rise in OPEC crude oil production
30.7
29.7
29.8
29.2
28.8
29
28.8
32
31.3
(2009 – 2012, mb/d)
26
Mar12
Feb12
Jan12
Dec11
Nov11
Oct11
Sep11
Aug11
Jul11
Jun11
May11
Apr11
Mar11
2011
2010
2009
23
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Key messages in the current oil market
The oil market is well supplied
Supply and demand fundamentals are sound
Global economic growth remains a key uncertainty, particularly in the Euro-zone
Today’s price levels are being impacted by speculation
Market stability needs to be our focus
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Thank you
www.opec.org
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