Transcript Adaptive Scheduling System: A Decision Theoretic Approach

Industrial feasibility analysis:
Introduction
Nur Aini Masruroh
http://aini.staff.ugm.ac.id/ ; Email: [email protected]; [email protected]
Questions
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What is feasibility analysis?
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Why should we perform it?
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What do you expect to get from this course?
Materials
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Introduction
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Non-capital analysis
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Business concept
Marketing aspect
Technical and operational aspect
Legal aspect
Environmental aspect
Capital planning and budgeting
Materials (cont’d)
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Basic capital investment analysis
Capital asset pricing model
Replacement analysis
Capital investment analysis in uncertain world
Feasibility report
Grading
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Assignments
Mid term
Final exam
: 50%
: 25%
: 25% (compulsory)
Text books
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J.R. Canada, W.G. Sullivan, D.J. Kulonda, and J.A. White, 2005, Capital
Investment Analysis for Engineering and Management, 3rd Ed., Prentice Hall,
New York.
Bodie, Z., Kane, A., and Marcus, A.J., 1999, Investments, 4th Ed., McGraw
Hill, Singapore
Bodie, Z., Kane, A., and Marcus, A.J., 2007, Essentials of Investments, 6th
Ed., McGraw Hill, Singapore
E.M Tainer, 1998, Using Economic Indicators to improve investment analysis,
John Wiley & Son, New York.
What’s business?
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Wikipedia:
“a legally recognized organization designed to provide goods
and/or services to consumers “
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Activity to “create money” in a responsible way
What is the most valuable company today?
CNN Money, 23 Oct 2009
Sales revenues
USD 372.824 bio
sales revenues
Profit
USD 40.610 bio
profit
Employees
107,100
employees
Market
Capitalization
USD 60.42 bio
USD 17.681 bio
91,000
market
USD 353.23 bio
capitalization
USD 249.9 bio
GDP Indonesia 2009 USD 629.244 bio !! (231 mio people@ USD 2,724)
*GDP = consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exports − imports)
US most valuable company
CNN Money, 23 Oct 2009
Based on market capitalization
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Exxon Mobil: $353.23 billion
Microsoft : $249.9 billion
Wal-Mart : $194.3 billion
Apple: $183.88 billion
JP Morgan Chase: $179.84 billion
Google: $175.93 billion
Procter & Gamble : $167.3 billion
Johnson & Johnson : $166.2 billion
General Electric : $161.42 billion
IBM : $159.08 billion
Value chain evolution
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70’s : COSTS + PROFIT = PRICE
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80’s : PRICE – COSTS = PROFIT
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90’s : PRICE – PROFIT = COSTS
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Now: SET TARGETS
PROFIT – PRICE – COSTS
Activities
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New product/process/project/plant/…  plan
Ongoing
Replacement the existing tools
Question: should we continue/realize or stop?
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What aspects should we consider to make the decision?
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In what extent an alternative is said to be feasible?
Industries
Manufacture
 Service
 feasibility studies can be done for both
 Different in product, process, problem faced,
performance measurements, etc.
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Investing, what’s for?
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Investor: financial benefit
Government: economic benefit (economic growth,
increase GDP (gross domestic product), export, import
substitution, etc)
Community: social-economic benefit (jobs, public facilities,
etc)
Investment characteristics
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Capital intensive
Long term period
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Usually need time before getting profit
Resource constrained
Risky  wrong decision needs “money” and “time” to
improve
Steps of feasibility study
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Pre-evaluation study
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Non-capital analysis
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Feasibility study (bankable)
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Start by simplifying the problem (make necessary
assumptions), if looks beneficial, make it in detail
The top 10 risks for business
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Regulatory and compliance risk
Global financial shocks
Aging consumers and workforce
The inability to capitalize on
emerging markets (rapidly
developing economies)
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Industry consolidation/transition
Energy shocks
Execution of strategic
transactions
Cost inflation
Radical greening
Consumer demand shifts
Weighting of the top 10 strategic business
risks across the sectors studied
Who may use the feasibility report?
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Investor
Funding resources, i.e. bank
Partner(s) to be
Benefactor (donor)
Government