Transcript Regional Cooperation for Human Security in Central Asia”

MA in Development Economics
Warsaw University
Europe and CIS
Development Challenges in Central Asia:
A Need for Regional Cooperation
Jacek Cukrowski
UNDP, Europe and the CIS
Bratislava Regional Centre
Warsaw, 16 December 2009
1
Outline

Central Asia and its challenges

Selected issues
Europe
and CIS
Trade, transport and transit
 Water, energy and environment
 Natural disasters, drugs, crime and terrorism
 Social development challenge
 Political and institutional constraints


Conclusions and recommendations
2
Europe
and CIS
Central Asia and its challenges
3
Central Asia: Key region in Eurasia
4
Jig-saw puzzle borders &
complex relations between states
Europe
and CIS
5
Borders in Central Asia
Europe
and CIS
Bridge between Kara-Suu (Kyrgyz Republic) and Quarasuv (Uzbekistan)
6
International interests in CA

After September 11 Central Asia became
important geopolitically


Europe
and CIS
However, after several years we are still to
see concrete results
Recently, there has been a refocused
interest in the region
Democracy and good governance
 Human rights issues

7
Central Asia – non homogenous
region

Europe
and CIS
Common inheritance
Soviet legacy left many difficult challenges
 Geography: All Central Asian countries are
landlocked



Uzbekistan: Double-landlocked
National differences
Size
 Resource endowment
 Incomes
 Interest in regional cooperation

8
Poverty and inequalities in CA
increased and remain high
Initial conditions
Per
capita
GNI
(1990)*
Europe
and CIS
Recent data
Gini
coefficient
(1989)
Poverty,
% of
population
(1989)**
Per
capita
GNI
(2006)*
Gini
coefficient
(2005)
Poverty,
% of
population***
(2003)
2870
0.289
11.1
--
--
--
Kazakhstan
$2600
0.289
15.5
$3870
0.339
21
Kyrgyzstan
$1570
0.287
32.9
$500
0.303
70
Tajikistan
$1130
0.308
51.2
$390
0.326
74
Turkmenistan
$1690
0.307
35.0
$1,669
0.408
44
Uzbekistan
$1340
0.304
43.6
$610
0.368
47
USSR
* GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US dollars). Turkmenistan - GDP per capita 2005 (HDR)
** Individuals in households with gross per capita monthly income of less than 75 rubles
*** Percent of population with expenditures below 2.15US dollars (PPP) per day
Sources: Pomfret, Anderson (2001), World Bank (2005)
9
Central Asia’s per-capita
GDPs: Not unlike Africa’s
$12,000
Per-capita $GDP, PPP terms, 2005 data
Europe
and CIS
$10,845$11,110
$10,000
$7,857
$8,000
$6,757
$6,000
$4,000
$2,000
$1,356
South
Africa
Russia
Kazakhstan
Source: UNDP Human Development Report (2007/2008)
China
Sudan
Uzbekistan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Rwanda
Nigeria
$0
$1,128 $1,206
$1,927 $2,063 $2,083
10
Human Development Index (HDI)
measuring the quality of life is low
HDI
rank*
HDI
GDP per
capita
(PPP US$,
2005)
Kazakhstan
73
0.794
7,857
65.9
99.5
Turkmenistan
109
0.713
3,838
62.6
98.8
Uzbekistan
113
0.702
2,063
66.8
na
Kyrgyzstan
116
0.696
1,927
65.6
98.7
Tajikistan
122
0.673
1,356
66.3
99.5
Russian Federation
67
0.802
10,845
65
99.4
Source: UNDP 2007/2008
Life
expectancy at
birth (years,
2005)
Adult literacy
rate (% ages 15
and older, 2005)
Europe
and CIS
*Note: Out of 177 countries.
11
Geographical disadvantage:
All CA countries are land-locked

Europe
and CIS
The distance from Central Asia
to the closest seaports in the Arabian Sea and
the Persian Gulf: 3900 km
 to the closest seaports in the Black Sea:
almost 3,000 km
 to the closest EU countries is about 4,000 km

12
Distances from capitals of CA
and selected African land-locked
countries to the closest sea
Capital
Distance
(km)
Kazakhstan
Astana
2800
Kyrgyzstan
Bishkek
2300
Tajikistan
Dushanbe
1700
Turkmenistan
Ashgabat
1100
Uzbekistan
Tashkent
1900
N’djamena
1200
Central African Republic
Bangui
1000
Niger
Niamey
900
Chad
Europe
and CIS
13
Difficult conditions, … but
starting from 1999 high
economic growth
Europe
and CIS
Growth rate (in percentage)
30
20
10
0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
-10
-20
-30
-40
14
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Recent trends…
Europe
and CIS
Net fuel exporters
(GDP growth, percentages)
12
Net fuel importers
(GDP growth, percentages)
9.0
10
2008
8
2009
6
8.0
2010
4
7.0
2008
6.0
2009
5.0
2010
4.0
2
3.0
0
2.0
-2
1.0
-4
0.0
Azerbaijan
Kazakhstan
Source: UNECE
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
15
Central Asia’s opportunities
Europe
and CIS


Rapid economic recovery since 1999
Progress in integration with the world
economy



Kyrgyzstan in WTO since 1998
Rapid growth in energy, raw materials exports
However

Sustainable progress requires regional cooperation

Partnership (donors involvement) is important but
countries need to cooperate
16
Regional cooperation is a
necessity, not an option
Europe
and CIS
 Partners and neighbours
 International and bilateral donors
 Neighbours: China, Russia, Iran
 Regional


cooperation
to promote trade and investment
to better manage
 common
infrastructure
 shared water and energy resources
 common environmental, health, and disaster
preparedness challenges
 labour migration
17
Europe
and CIS
CENTRAL ASIA
HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT
Bringing down barriers:
Regional cooperation for human development
and human security
Download report at:
http://europeandcis.undp.org
18
Europe
and CIS
Selected issues
 Trade,
transport and transit
 Water,
energy and environment
 Natural disasters, drugs, crime and
terrorism
 Social development challenge
 Political and institutional constraints
19
TTT: Special Issues (1)

Europe
and CIS
Borders are difficult/expensive/time
consuming/dangerous



for trucks, cars, carts, people
visa requirements are burdensome
customs are often arbitrary and corrupt

Regional trade agreements are overlapping,
complex “spaghetti bowls”

Substantial investment and maintenance costs
from road and rail projects to circumvent borders

Air transport is underdeveloped, within region
and with rest of world
20
Transport is costly and time
consuming
Transport cost a (US$)
From… (to Europe)
Europe
and CIS
Transit time
(days)
Roadb
Railb
Airc
Roadb Railb
Airc
Dushanbe (Tajikistan)
9,200
3,400
2,400
15
28
7
Khodjant (Tajikistan)
9,000
3,000
2,200
14
26
7
Tashkent (Uzbekistan)
7,000
2,800
2,000
12
23
4
Almaty (Kazakhstan)
8,000
3,000
2,100
13
21
4
Ashgabat (Turkmenistan)
8,000
3,300
2,300
14
28
6
* 2004 г.
a
Including non-official payments
Source: UNDP
b
For container 40’
c
For one metric tonne
21
Spaghetti bowl of regional
trade agreements
Europe
and CIS
22
Regional Agreements involving
Central Asian Republics
Europe
and CIS
CIS EurAsec UES CACO SPECA ECO SCO
Kazakhstan
x
x
Kyrgyz Rep
x
Tajikistan
x
Turkmenistan
x
Uzbekistan
x
x
Russia
China
Iran
Pakistan
Turkey
Afghanistan
Azerbaijan
Armenia
Belarus
Georgia
Moldova
Ukraine
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
23
TTT: Special Issues (2)

Europe
and CIS
Shuttle traders (esp. women) face
restrictions
“If there were no such obstacles and additional
expenses, the goods would have been way cheaper.
We wouldn’t have seen the sad eyes of the parents,
who cannot afford an expensive piece of clothing for
their child.” (Interview with shuttle trader)

Reforms of trade, transit, business climate
require “good governance” reforms

anti-corruption, civil service, transparency,
accountability
24
Shuttle trade
Kyrgyz-Uzbek border in the
city of Kara Suu (Quarasuv)
A bridge destroyed by Uzbek
authorities in 2002
Source: www.fеrgana.ru and UNDP
Europe
and CIS
A bridge [temporarily] rebuilt by local
population just after events in Andijan
in May 2005
25
TTT: Great barriers and
opportunities

Trade could expand significantly


Better border management could reduce transport
and transit barriers/costs by 50%
Borders are difficult, expensive, dangerous


Europe
and CIS
Especially for shuttle traders – often women
Lower trade costs boost incomes, employment,
consumption in the region


Conservative estimate: 20%-55%
Many of the benefits go to Central Asia’s poor
26
Recent projects: CAREC
Trade Corridors
Europe
and CIS
27
UNDP: AfT for Central Asia: Support to
Economic Development along Trade Corridors
Europe
and CIS

Regional project financed by the Government of Finland

Support economic development of the areas located
along selected transport corridors in Central Asia

Help small/micro entrepreneurs and farmers to gain from
the economic opportunities the new transport
infrastructure will bring

Support local communities placed along transport
corridors





promotion of international standards and procedures
identification of the products with the biggest trade potential
improvement of the understanding of market mechanisms
matching potential trading partners
improving the regions competitiveness, expanding trade and
alleviating poverty
28
Europe
and CIS
Selected issues
 Trade,
transport and transit
 Water,
energy and
environment
 Natural
disasters, drugs, crime
and terrorism
 Social development challenge
 Political and institutional
constraints
29
The Aral sea disaster
Source: UNDP
Europe
and CIS
30
Water, energy, environment:
special issues

Central Asia has large water/energy
resources, export potential


Europe
and CIS
Water, energy, environment are tightly linked
Poor national policies, weak regional
institutions create:
obstacles to effective regional resource
management
 potential for national, community conflicts

31
Regional public goods in
search of regional approaches
Europe
and CIS

Goal of self-sufficiency in water and energy
resources for national security drives many
of the policies of non-cooperation

Regional solutions?
Large common benefits . . .
 . . . but require trust and some sharing of
sovereignty

32
Radioactive, chemical and
biological hazards
Europe
and CIS
Source: UNEP EnvSec initiative
33
Europe
and CIS
Selected issues
 Trade,
transport and transit
 Water, energy and environment
 Natural
disasters, drugs,
crime and terrorism
 Social
development challenge
 Political and institutional
constraints
34
Natural disasters pose high
economic and human risks
Europe
and CIS
Areas of high seismic risk
35
Economic loss potential from
catastrophic events is huge
Europe
and CIS
Percentage of GDP
0
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
100
Armenia*
Georgia
Tajikistan
Azerbaijan
Kyrgyzstan
Rep. of Moldova
Russia
Kazakhstan
percentage of GDP
Belarus
USD millions
Ukraine
$ millions
Uzbekistan
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000
Note: Annual probability of occurrence of catastrophic
events is 0.5 percent.
* For Armenia, percentage of GDP is 708.5
Source:
World Bank
36
Regional responses to natural
disasters needed

Regional response essential


Europe
and CIS
Jigsaw puzzle borders “regionalise” many
disaster issues
National, regional institutions lack capacity
in disaster
risk assessment, management
 prevention, preparedness, response


Community involvement critical
37
Illicit drug trafficking

Central Asia a major transit corridor for
illicit drugs from Afghanistan . . .


Europe
and CIS
. . . national production and use growing
Important links to:
HIV/AIDS
 crime and terrorism
 weak institutions and poor governance


Regional cooperation and drug trafficking:


necessary, but not sufficient
long-term answers largely outside Central Asia
38
Europe
and CIS
Selected issues
 Trade,
transport and transit
 Water, energy and environment
 Natural disasters, drugs, crime and
terrorism
 Social
development challenge
 Political
and institutional constraints
39
Labour migration

Europe
and CIS
Since the mid- 1990s, most migrants have
left to seek better economic opportunities
in Russia and recently in Kazakhstan
Sources of labour migrants: Tajikistan, Uzbekistan,
Kyrgyzstan
 Target countries: Russia, Kazakhstan


In some countries remittances accounts
for 20-50 percent of GDP, but
Status of labour migrants is not regulated
 Significant social costs of labour migration


Children, families, communities
40
Remittances are large
(Inflows as percentage of GDP)
Europe
and CIS
Source: IMF
41
Basic health indicators in CA
have deteriorated
A decrease in life expectancy at birth
72
Infant and under-five mortality
120
1990
70
Europe
and CIS
2005
104
69.6
68.8
69.5
Infant mortality
100
68.8
Under-five mortality
81
68
65.9
66
66.3
66.4
66.8
80
65.6
73
63
58
60
71
67
68
59
57
64
62.6
40
62
20
60
58
0
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
42
Tuberculosis is a regional
problem
Europe
and CIS
300
297
250
1990
2005
200
155
133
150
139
90
100
65.5
52.5
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
50
63.4
46.4
45.9
0
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Source: UNDP Human Development Report (2007/2008)
43
Crisis of education
60.0
52.7
Europe
and CIS
School enrolment, tertiary (% gross)
50.0
1991
42.7
40.0
2006
40.0
30.4
30.0
22.1
18.6
20.0
21.7
14.3
9.84
10.0
0.0
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyz
Republic
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Source: WDI, World Bank, 2008
44
Other issues

The risk of loosing Russian as a lingua
franca

Access to information


Europe
and CIS
Internet users
Gender issues

Equality of men and women
45
Europe
and CIS
Selected issues
 Trade,
transport and transit
 Water, energy and environment
 Natural disasters, drugs, crime
and terrorism
 Social development challenge
 Political
and institutional
constraints
46
Political and institutional
constraints
Europe
and CIS

Not all political and economic interests benefit
from cooperation

Even if there is interest in cooperation at the top,
implementation may be blocked by those who
would lose

Corruption, poor administrative capacity, lack of
accountability hinder reforms

More participation by communities, giving voice
to those who suffer from poor border
management and related restrictions would help
47
Prospects for regional
cooperation
Europe
and CIS

Region-wide, comprehensive and
intensive cooperation may not occur in
Central Asia for some time to come, due to
political and institutional constraints

…but progress on many selected issues is
nonetheless possible and desirable
48
Europe
and CIS
Conclusions
and recommendations
49
Conclusions
and recommendations

Biggest gains come from improvements in:



trade, transport and transit
water/energy development and use
Biggest potential threats come from:




Europe
and CIS
natural disasters
communicable diseases
regional conflict
Domestic reforms are a precondition



good governance
trade and investment climate
social, environmental policies
50
More recommendations

Broader networking across borders

governments, business, academia, civil society

National development strategies should reflect
regional dimensions

Key regional institutions:



Europe
and CIS
Should be strengthened
Mandates made clearer
Neighbors and international organizations
should support regional cooperation, integration
51
Priorities for actions

Priorities for action should focus on
creating
“borders with a human face”

Regional dimensions should be explicitly
incorporated into national strategies
(PRSPs)

Domestic reforms are an essential
complement to regional cooperation

Europe
and CIS
especially to promote good governance, trade and
investment, and social and environmental policies52
Europe
and CIS
Thank you…

[email protected]

United Nations Development Programme,
Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States,
Bratislava Regional Centre

http://europeandcis.undp.org
53
Europe
and CIS
Annex
54
Scope of the report

The report is “people centered”



human development and human security defined in
terms of broad goals and measures of human welfare
“freedom from want, freedom from fear”
linked to Millennium Declaration, MDGs
Addresses cooperation among the five Central
Asian CIS countries


Europe
and CIS
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan,
Uzbekistan
And integration with the rest of the world

especially neighbors (Afghanistan, China, Iran,
Russia) and other partners
55
Report chapter structure
I.
II.
III.
IV.
V.
VI.
VII.
VIII.
IX.
Europe
and CIS
Introduction
Central Asia as a region
Trade and investment
Resources: water, energy, environment
Threats: natural disasters, drugs, crime,
terrorism
Social development
Regional cooperation: political constraints
Cooperation with neighbors, partners
Conclusions
56