Transcript 38th TRC Meeting Venice 2003 How to define, identify and

7th International Forum on Tourism Statistics
Stockholm, 9-11 June, 2004
Theme: Sustainable Tourism
From sustainable tourism to decline:
how to monitor the risk
Mara Manente, director, CISET-University of Venice
[email protected]
Preliminaries
This presentation summarizes one of the themes
developed under the DETOUR project, carried out for
the European Commission with the aim to provide
“An early warning system for identifying declining
destinations”
The structure of the DETOUR project
- Conceptual framework
Re-defining a declining destination
Factors and conditions of decline
Signals of decline: inventory
Indicators grid: inventory and theoretical definition
- Early warning in practice (survey among practitioners
in tourist destinations)
Signals
Indicators
Strategies
- Warning system prototype: IDES (Interactive
Destination Evaluation System), a tool for visualising
threats of decline
Selection of the strategic variables
Adoption of appropriate decline thresholds (or tendency towards
decline)
Declining destination:
“destination with a certain tradition in providing tourism,
but characterised by one ore more negative trends.
Although at an advanced stage the decline results in
economic losses, even those destinations which are still
profitable might already be under acute threat of
decline”
It is insufficient to define “decline” merely by actual
decrease in guest numbers, turnover or benefit.
Indicators – inventory, selection, classification
First set: state of the art
(driving force, state, pressure indicators – EEA DSPIR model definitions)
a1 Destination functions
Urban functions (urban size,transport network, service sector, etc)
tourist functions (Tourist/resident ratio; economic role, etc.)
…
a2 Tourism vocation from the demand side and evolution
tourism demand market share
evolution of tourism demand (flows, expenditure, motivations)
…
a3 Tourism vocation from the supply side and evolution
natural and historical heritage
accommodation, restaurants, etc
ratio of tourist activities on total activities
…
… indicators
a4 Tourism vocation according to the whole tourism system
role of tourism on the local economy
role of tourism mobility on total mobility
…
a5 Quality of life
population trend
composition of population by age
per capita revenue
level of pollution
congestion of public structures and services
…
a6 Tourists quality of experience
tourist prices
level of satisfaction
willingness to repeat the visit
…
… indicators
Second set: towards a dynamic analysis
(impact and response indicators)
b1 Quality of socio-economic development
structure and evolution of the economic and productive base
employment rate and sectoral composition
per capita revenues
….
b2 Quality of tourism supply development (resource based approach)
destination system resources and strategic capabilities
organisational structure (partnerships)
…
b3 Tourism impacts
physical threshold
social threshold
economic threshold
Classification of identified indicators (more than 70)
I S.s.n – name: name of the indicator
description: short description of the indicator
source: the source of the indicator (i.e. of the mathematical formula or calculating
method, not of the data useful to calculate the indicator itself) is named if it seems to be
particularly relevant. It can be found in the existing literature or be a CISET proposal. For
some indicators multiple sources have been used.
measure: mathematical formula or calculating method
alternative definition: (when necessary) mathematical formula or calculating method
which can be used if the previous choice is not viable
unit of measurement: unit of measurement, strictly dependent on the measurement
method adopted
purpose: reason which led to the choice of the indicator
relevance: importance in identifying decline or in determining its preconditions (high,
medium, low, null)
difficulty degree: evaluation of the probability of success in getting data / information
needed in order to obtain the indicator value (high, medium, low, null)
linkages: (when necessary) what sections or indicators seem to be strictly related with
the considered indicator
warning signal: defines threshold value, critical range or negative trend useful in
identifying decline
….. Example
I 2.3.15 - name: Tourist flows trend
description: total tourist flows per annum during life cycle periods
(development, maturity, decline, rejuvenation)
source: multiple sources
measure: tourist arrivals to all accommodation establishments per annum –
per annum variation
alternative definition: tourist arrivals to all hotels; trend deducted from visitor
flows to the destination’s main attractions; if data referred to the life cycle
periods are not available, the most recent years could be considered
unit of measurement: absolute value
purpose: determining the quantitative evolution of tourist flows to the
considered destination
relevance: high
difficulty degree: medium
linkages: I 1.1.5; I 1.2.2; I 1.2.6
warning signal: decreasing or not increasing values
A first warning system prototype:
the Interactive Destination Evaluation System (IDES)
- giving destination managers strategic information about current
situation and risk of decline
- showing in a really effective way the evolution of the destination
over time
- simulating by means of images the effect of changes in the selected
variables
The implementation requires the adaptation of the set of variables
chosen to the characteristics of the destination, as well as to the
availability of data
Application to the Canary Islands: from the document
prepared for the Canary Islands Government
Risk analysis
Competitiveness analysis
Risks
Indicators:
• Tourists/Residents = number of tourist arrivals on residents,
i.e. average number of interactions of each member of the
local community with different people coming from outside
• Tourist pressure on environment = average daily number of
tourists per square km of suitable soil*, i.e. additional
human pressure on the environment caused by tourists
• Cement sold per person = yearly tonnes of cement sold on
average population (= inhabitants plus daily number of
tourists)
• Consumption of electricity per person = daily kwh on
average population (= inhabitants plus daily number of
tourists)
* suitable soil = total surface - geomorphological soil - protected soil
18/07/2015
•
•
•
•
Seasonal concentration = GINI Seasonality Index
measuring the concentration of tourist flows during the year
Hotel Beds/Total Beds = percentage of Hotel Beds on Total
Beds expressing the weight of hotel supply on
accommodation market
Hotels and restaurants G.V.A./Agricolture & Fishing G.V.A.=
ratio of tourist industry G.V.A. on primary sector G.V.A.
expressing the dependence of the economy from external
resources
Import /Export (base=1992) = ratio of imports on exports
index numbers expressing the dependence of the economy
from external resources
CANARY ISLANDS RISKS (1992-2000)
Tourists/Residents
Import/Export (base=1992)
Tourist pressure on environment
Hotels and restaurants
G.V.A./Agricolture & Fishing G.V.A.
Cement sold per person
Consumption of electricity per
person
Hotel Beds/Total Beds
Seasonal concentration
1992
2000
FUERTEVENTURA RISKS (1992-2000)
Tourists/Residents
Import/Export (base=1992)
Tourist pressure on environment
Hotels and restaurants
G.V.A./Agricolture & Fishing G.V.A.
Cement sold per person
Consumption of electricity per
person
Hotel Beds/Total Beds
Seasonal concentration
1992
2000
LA PALMA RISKS (1992-2000)
Tourists/Residents
Import/Export (base=1992)
Tourist pressure on environment
Hotels and restaurants
G.V.A./Agricolture & Fishing G.V.A.
Cement sold per person
Consumption of electricity per
person
Hotel Beds/Total Beds
Seasonal concentration
1992
2000
Competitiveness
Indicators:
• Hotel Occupancy rate, which expresses the profitability
of the hotel structures (optimal value = 100% occupancy)
• Guest Mix by purpose, which expresses the variety of
demand segments by purpose (the more wide is variety,
the less dependent on a particular market is the tourism
industry i.e. the more sustainable is the tourism sector)
(optimal value = 100% variety)
• Guest Mix by origin, which expresses the variety of
demand segments by origin (the more wide is variety, the
less dependent on a particular market is the tourism
industry i.e. the more sustainable is the tourism sector)
(optimal value = 100% variety)
•
•
•
•
CPI/TPI, which expresses the ratio Consumer Price
Index on Tourism Price Index (the lower are tourist
prices the cheaper is the destination) (optimal value =
1)
Seasonal distribution (=1-Seasonal concentration),
which expresses the homogeneity degree of tourist
flows along the year (optimal value = 100%, i.e. uniform
distribution)
Economic role of tourism, which expresses the weight
of tourist G.V.A. on destination's total G.V.A. (optimal
value = 30%)
Demand average growth, yearly average growth on
three years which expresses the actual trend of tourist
flows to the destination (threshold chosen for the
Canary Islands = 15%)
CANARY ISLANDS COMPETITIVENESS (1992)
Hotel Occupancy rate
Demand average growth **
Guest Mix by purpose
Economic role of tourism *
Seasonal distribution
Guest Mix by origin
CPI/TPI
COMPETITIVE SCORE * = 50
* Score = (Blue area / Regular Polygon Area) * 100
CANARY ISLANDS COMPETITIVENESS (2000)
Hotel Occupancy rate
Demand average growth **
Guest Mix by purpose
Economic role of tourism *
Seasonal distribution
Guest Mix by origin
CPI/TPI
COMPETITIVE SCORE = 38