Transcript 活力經濟 健康台灣 - Rutgers University

Taiwan’s Economic Momentum
and Prospects
Yaw-Chung Liaw, Ph.D.
Director General
Overall Planning Department,
Council for Economic Planning and Development
Executive Yuan (Cabinet), Taiwan
The 14th Annual Conference on Pacific Basin Finance, Economics, and
Accounting
Panel Session IX (Room 105) 15:45 p.m.- 17:00 p.m.
July 14, 2006
CONTENTS
I. TAIWAN ECONOMIC ACHIEVEMENTS AND CHALLENGES
II. TAIWAN CURRENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
III. GLOBAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT TRENDS AND
CHALLENGES
IV. TAIWAN’S FUTURE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND
OUTLOOK
V. CONCLUSION
2
I. Taiwan Economic Achievements and Challenges
1. Taiwan’s Industrial Development History (Course of Change in the Factor
Intensity of Production)
y＝ｆ(L, K, T, knowledge)
Ｌ
Ｌ
First-phase
Import
Substitution
Light
industry
1953
Export
Expansion
Stage
Second-phase
Import
Substitution
and Export
Expansion
Stage
Basic and
heavy
industries
Light
industry
1961
1973
Knowledge
y=f(T/L)
Ｔ
Ｋ
Economic
Liberalization Stage
High-tech
Industrial
Development Stage
Development Promotion
of
of ten
strategic
emerging
industries
industries
1984
1991
Knowledge
Economy
Stage
Knowledgebased
industries
2000
3
2. Taiwan’s Economic Development Experience and Achievements
Over the past fifty-some years, Taiwan has achieved rapid economic growth accompanied by
price stability. From 1953 to 2005, the economy grew at an average annual rate of 7.9%, with
consumer prices (the CPI) rising by an average of only 4.5% per year (2.4% if the energy
crisis years in the 1970s are excluded).
2005
1952
Annual rate of change
(％)
8.54
22.65
1.9
1,675
345,862
10.6
196
15,271
8.6
Agricultural output as ratio of GDP (％)
32.2
1.8
－
Industrial output as ratio of GDP (％)
19.7
24.6
－
Services output as ratio of GDP (％)
48.1
73.6
－
Exports (US$ million)
116
198,435
15.1
Imports (US$ million)
187
182,616
13.9
Foreign reserves (US$ million)
－*
253,290
－
Population (million persons)
GDP (US$ million; current prices)
Per capita GDP(US$)
Source: Directorate General of Budget, Accounting, and Statistics.
Note: *US$82 million in 1959.
4
 Taiwan Has Become a Global Stronghold of High-Tech Products
Taiwan’s “World Top Producer” Items in 1983 and 2005
1983
2005
Products
Production
Value
(US$ billions)
Shoes
Electric fans
Bicycles
Umbrellas
Sewing-machines
Bicycle tires
Thermos flasks
MSG
Bicycle brakes
Camphor
Bicycle chains
1.8
.23
.22
.19
.18
.10
.08
.04
.01
.01
.01
Sources: CEPD, MOEA ITIS Plan.
Products
(excluding offshore
production)
Foundry
IC packaging
IC testing
Mask ROMs
CD-R discs
CD-RW discs
DVD-R discs
DVD-RW discs
Glass fiber
ED Cu
Large-size TFT-LCDs
TN/STN-LCDs
IC design
DRAM
WLANs
Production
Value
(US$
billions)
Production
Volume
(billion
units)
11.3
5.53
2.1
.28
4.82
.18
3.5
.19
.49
.52
17.79
1.25
7.97
5.64
.52
Global Market
Share (%)
67
45
60
91
58
77
71
59
48
36
41 (#2)
20 (#2)
22 (#2)
22 (#2)
23 (#2)
5
3.Trend of Industrial Structure
◎ Industry’s Structural Trends
(1) The industrial structure has undergone enormous change: In 1986, industry share of GDP
rose to a historic high of 44.8%; services’ share increased year by year, to reach 73.6% in
2005.
(2) Within the manufacturing sector, high-tech industries accounted for 43.1% of output in
2005.
(3) Changes in the industrial structure have generated structural unemployment. In recent
years, the government has adopted a raft of short-, mid- and long-term employment
promotion measures, and in the future must consider industrial development directions
in the light of such structural changes.
80
%
70
60
Service
50
40
Industry
30
20
10
Agriculture
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
0
Source: Directorate General of Budget, Accounting, and Statistics.
6
⊙ Main competitive industries have large output value. As trillion-dollar
industries have gradually take shape, they have also gradually developed
comprehensive supply chains.
2005
Semiconductor
(NT$1.11 trillion)

Petrochemicals
(NT$1.14 trillion)
Image display
Iron & steel
Machinery &
equipment
Textile mill
products
(476)
Communication

(909)
(640) (955) (579)
 2-Trillion
2-Star
industries
Digital
content
Biotech
(NT$290
billion)
(NT$15
billion)
7
⊙ Certain industries have fallen into severe decline, and need
assistance to transform and upgrade.
Under the impact of the international
competition brought by globalization, some
export industries have experienced relatively
serious decline. These include the apparel,
leather & fur, and wood & bamboo products
industries.
Taiwan’s entry to the WTO has also delivered a
serious blow to certain traditional-industry
manufactures. Besides the large-volume import
of low-cost towels from China, ceramics,
furniture, non-woven cloth, fiber-optic cable,
paper, and building materials all face
competition from Asian countries.
8
⊙ Internationally competitive products have already generated industrial
and regional clusters, with industries developing backward from
downstream to upstream and toward capital and technology intensity,
while science parks have also promoted related industrial clustering.
1996 export value
(percentage)
2005 export value
(percentage)
Flat panel display
industry
1,188 (3.7%)
1,821 (3.0%)
Unit: NT$100
millions
Semiconductor
industry
Upstream
industries
2,623 (8.3%)
9,690 (15.9%)
(13.0%)
(31.1%)
Machinery and parts
Metal products
1,730 (5.4%)
2,873 (4.7%)
1,537 (4.8%)
2,551 (4.2%)
Supportive
industries
290 (0.9%)
4,759 (7.8%)
Passive components
industry
Plastics and
composite
fiber industry
1,200 (3.8%)
4,513 (7.4%)
Communications
industry
Computers and
peripherals
828 (2.6%)
3,764 (6.2%)
4,558 (14.3%)
2,662 ( 4.4%)
Vehicles and parts
1,258 (4.0%)
1,944 (3.2%)
(13.9%)
(11.9%)
Final
consumption
(20.9%)
(13.8%)
Source: Compiled by CEPD from MOEA and MOF statistical data.
9
II. Taiwan Current Economic Development
1. Monitoring Indicators
The monitoring indicators flashed “green” in May 2006 for the tenth successive
month. The positive movements of most indicators suggest continued steady
expansion..
Source: Council for Economic Planning and Development.
10
2. Economic Growth
Despite the deceleration in the first half of 2005 due to a worldwide slowdown, the
economy gained momentum in the second half, thanks to the boost brought to
exports by the upswing in the global consumer electronics market, and steady
pickup in private consumption, leading to a 4.1% growth for the whole year.
The economy grew 4.9% in the first quarter of 2006, with exports and
manufacturing production remaining strong.
Contribution to Economic Growth (in percentage points)
Economic
Growth
(yoy)
Domestic
Demand
Private
Consumption
Private Gross
Fixed Capital
Formation
Others
Net
Foreign
Demand
2001
-2.2
-4.6
0.4
-4.4
-0.6
2.5
2002
4.3
1.6
1.5
0.5
-0.4
2.6
2003
3.4
0.7
0.6
-0.03
0.1
2.7
2004
6.0
6.3
2.3
3.7
0.3
-0.2
2005
4.1
1.6
1.8
-0.2
0.0
2.5
4.9
1.2
1.3
-0.5
0.4
3.8
2006
(Jan.-Mar.)
Source: Directorate General of Budget, Accounting, and Statistics.
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3. Domestic Investment
Total investment increased at a modest rate of 0.5% in 2005, with private investment
declining 1.3% while investment by government and by public enterprises expanding
0.3% and 17.2%, respectively.
In 2006, private investment is expected to grow more quickly while government
investment will grow only marginally. Investment by public enterprises is expected
to fall as a result of privatization.
Gross Fixed Capital Formation: Growth rate
unit：%
Total
Private
investment
Public enterprises
investment
Government
investment
2001
-19.9
-26.8
1.4
-6.4
2002
-0.6
4.1
-1.3
-12.8
2003
-0.9
-0.3
-4.1
-1.1
2004
17.5
31.0
-18.2
-5.7
2005
2006
0.5
-1.3
17.2
0.3
-4.0
-3.9
-4.9
-3.8
(Jan.-Mar.)
Source: Directorate General of Budget, Accounting, and Statistics.
12
4. Industrial Production
Industrial production softened in the first half of 2005, but has displayed much
more strength since August, increasing 3.4% for the whole year. It went up higher
in the first five months of 2006, with manufacturing and construction industries
increasing 8.0% and 19.3% respectively.
Growth of Industrial Production
unit：%
Total
Mining
Manufacturin
g
Electricity, gas,
and water
construction
2001
-7.8
0.1
-8.4
1.1
-11.2
2002
7.9
8.3
9.4
3.3
-20.7
2003
7.1
-7.4
7.4
3.8
8.9
2004
9.9
-4.4
10.6
3.0
4.9
2005
3.4
-9.9
3.2
3.8
11.4
2006
7.9
-6.2
8.0
2.8
19.3
(Jan.-May)
Source: Ministry of Economic Affairs.
13
5. Foreign Trade
Exports and imports softened in 2005, with two-way trade increasing to 8.5%.
Exports and imports expanded by 12.9% and 9.5%, respectively, in the first six
months of 2006.
Trade surplus grew to US$15.8 billion in 2005, from US$13.6 billion in 2004. It
posted US$7.8 billion in first half of 2006, up US$3.6 billion from the same months
last year.
Units: US$ billion, ％
Trade
Exports
Imports
Balance
Value
Growth
Value
Growth
Value
Growth
2001
234.3
-19.9
126.3
-16.9
108.0
-23.3
18.3
2002
248.5
6.1
135.3
7.1
113.2
4.9
22.1
2003
278.6
12.1
150.6
11.3
128.0
13.0
22.6
2004
351.2
26.1
182.4
21.1
168.8
31.8
13.6
2005
2006
381.0
8.5
198.4
8.8
182.6
8.2
15.8
204.3
11.3
106.0
12.9
98.3
9.5
7.8
(Jan.-Jun.)
Source: Ministry of Finance.
6
6. Employment
Total employment growth decelerated in 2005 and further in the first five months
of 2006.
The unemployment rate continued to display a declining trend, dropping to 3.8%
in January-May 2006, the lowest since 2001.
％
6
Unemployment Rate
5
4
3
2.6
2.7
2.7
2.9
3.0
5.0
4.4
1.8
2.2
1.2
1.2
0
1.2
1.0
4.1
3.8
1.6
1.5
2005
2006
Employment
Growth Rate
2
1
5.2
4.6
1.1
1.3
0.8
0.3
-1
-1.1
-2
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
(Jan.-May)
Source: Directorate General of Budget, Accounting, and Statistics.
15
7. Price
Prices increased moderately in 2005, with consumer prices up by 2.3%. .
Due to higher prices of energy, mineral and basic metal products, wholesale prices
in the first half of 2006 increased 4.0% from a year ago. Consumer prices rose
1.4%, with increases in fruits, oil, tobacco, and medical care offsetting a fall in
garments. Core prices (excluding fresh food and energy prices) rose 0.6%.
%
0.71
0.65
2004
2005
0.58
Core Prices
8
2003
7.03
WPI
2006
(Jan.-Jun.)
6
4.01
-0.61
4
3.08
1.69
0.89
2
0
-2
0.6
-1.01
-0.45
2.48
1.82
0.17
1.26
-0.01
0.05
-0.2
2.3
1.62
0.61
-0.28
1.43
-1.34
CPI
-4
-4.55
-6
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Source: Directorate General of Budget, Accounting, and Statistics.
2004
2005
2006
(Jan.-Jun.)
16
8. Money and Banking
For the first five months in 2006, M1B and M2 expanded 6.2% and 6.7%, respectively.
Market interest rates have seen a slightly upward trend since the second half of 2004.
In May 2006, commercial paper rate and interbank rate recorded 1.50% and 1.52%,
respectively. The Central Bank raised the rediscount rate four times in 2005, and
further to 2. 500% in June 2006.
Since the broadly defined non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of domestic banks peaked
at 11.27% at the end of 2001, a continuing program of financial reforms has slashed it
dramatically to just 2.24% in December 2005 .
5.72
4.9
900
740.5
Non-performing Loan Ratio
4.52
841.6
3.8
688.9
590.7
600
3.66
576.5
4
3.24
518.1
2.8
455.0
300
2.24
2.53
370.5
423.8
0
2004
3
6
Non-performing Loan Amount
6
9
12
Source: The Central Bank of China, R.O.C.
2005
3
2
Non-performimg loan ratio (%)
Non-performimg loans (NT$ billion)
1200
0
2006 year
6
9
12
5
month
17
III. Global Economic Development Trends and Challenges
1. The Formation of Economic and Trade Networks
around the World
EU-Mexico
FTA
North American Free
Trade Area
(NAFTA)
US and Central America
Free Trade Agreement
(CAFTA)
Expanding to Latin
American countries
2005 Establishment of Free
Trade Area of the Americas
(FTAA)
Southern Cone
Common Market
（MERCOSUR）
Already signed and set up
Under consideration or
negotiation
2004 Eastward Expansion to 25
Japan-South Korea
Countries
European
FTA
Union
China-ASEAN
15 Countries
FTA
China-HK/Macau
ASEAN-India
(EU)
(2010)
Closer Economic
Partnership
Arrangements
(CEPA)
EU-ASEAN
Japan-ASEAN
Comprehensive
ASEAN Free Trade
Economic
Area
EU-ACP (African,
Partnership
(AFTA)
Caribbean & Pacific
Framework
Countries) FTAs
Agreement
(more than 70 countries)
(2003)
Japan-Singapore
ASEAN-AustraliaNew Century Economic
New Zealand
Partnership Agreement Closer Economic
(2002)
Relations
(CER)
Taiwan-Panama FTA (concluded)
Taiwan-Nicaragua FTA (under negotiation)
Taiwan-Guatemala FTA (concluded)
18
2. The Rising Power of Emerging Economies
BRICs GDP rising as ratio of G6 GDP
2003：13.3％  2015：19.1％
˙World economy entering golden
decade of stability and prosperity.
˙Asia’s rise serving as a new driving
force for the global economy.
2005-2015 annual average growth rates
Unit: ％
5.0
4.0
3.0
India
Russia
Brazil
2.6
6.8
5.5
4.3
3.9
6.0
5.7
3.2
3.2
3.2
2.5
3.2
2.3
1.7
2.2
1.9
1.8
2005-2008
2005-2015
1.5
EU
Japan
USA
1.0
2.5
World
2.0
China
5.9
6.0
East Asia
Economic growth rate
％
7.0
G6
0.0
2001-2004
Note: BRICs refers to Brazil, Russia, India and China; the G6 are the US, Japan, Germany, UK, France
and Italy; East Asia refers to the 4 Asian Dragons, the ASEAN 4, and China.
Source: Global Insight Inc.
19
3. Pivotal Profit Niche of Innovational Services
In the wake of the tremendous advances in information and communications
technology, and the sharp fall in communication costs, service industries will break
through their traditional limitations of “inseparability”, “unstorability” and
“undeliverability” to spark a new “service sector revolution.”
With IT industry hardware and consumer electronics having already reached a plateau, the
focus will shift from hardware to software in the next stage of the information revolution,
and innovational services will become the key competitive factor.
In recent years, the sharp expansion of investment by transnational corporations has fully
reflected the opportunities of service industry development.
A look at FDI flows shows that in 2001~2002, 71% of global FDI went into the service sector,
with telecommunications, storage and transportation showing the fastest growth, followed
by business services.
Heavy Investment in the Service Sector by Transnational Corporations
－Global FDI Flows by Industrial Sector
1989~1991
2001~2002
Services
Services
55%
Manufacturing
39%
Source: UNCTAD
71%
Manufacturing
6%Primary
industry
22%
7% Primary
industry
20
4. Accelerating Trends of Population Aging and Fertility Decline
Item
Year-end Population
Fertility
Total Fertility
Rate
(Ave. no. of
children per
woman)
Annual
Growth
Rate
(%)
Year-end Population Structure (%)
Dependency Ratio (%)
Year
Total
Populatio
n
(1000s)
1993
20,944
0.9
1.76
325
25.1
67.8
7.1
37.1
10.5
2004
22,615
0.4
1.20
217
19.3
71.2
9.5
27.1
13.3
2005
22,690
0.3
1.12
205
18.6
71.7
9.7
26.0
13.5
2011
23,138
0.2
1.10
197
15.3
74.0
10.7
20.6
14.5
2021
23,284
-0.1
1.10
169
12.0
71.3
16.6
16.9
23.3
2051
18,627
-1.4
1.10
86
7.8
55.2
37.0
14.2
67.0
No. of
Births
(1000s)
Yearend
1981
2014
2026
31.6
64.0
Unit: ％
65 &+
74.3
11.3
2051 7.8
68.1
55.2
Elderly
/*100
218
7.1
71.3
13.9
Infants
/*100
250
4.4
67.8
19.3
65 &+

1000 persons
200
25.1
1993
2004
15-64
15-64

◎ Projected Future Birth Rate (Median Projection)
◎ Future Population Structure
0-14
0-14

9.4
150
11.8
100
20.6
37.0
189
169
131
104
86
50
2004
2014
2021
2031
2041
2051
21
5. Green Energy-Saving Driving Tide
Kyoto Protocol
 38 countries (excluding nonsignatory US) to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions by
average of 5.2% below 1990
levels from 2008 to 2012.
Global CO2 Emissions from Fossil Energy
100 million tons
400
Coal
Natural gas
Oil
350
Industrialized countries’
greenhouse gas emission
reduction pledges
(2008~2012)
Emission limits (1990=100)
300
250
200
150
100
EU
92
Japan
94
Canada
94
50
0
1970
1980
1990
2001
2010
2020
22
IV. Taiwan’s Future Economic Development and Outlook
◎ The Driving Forces of Taiwan’s Economic Development
Average Income
Innovation
driven
(knowledge)
Investment
driven
(capital)
Resource
driven
Taiwan’s
current
stage
Development Stage
23
◎ Forecasts for Taiwan’s economic growth
Forecasting Institution
Release Date
2006
2007
DGBAS
May. 2006
4.31
-
Academia Sinica
Jun. 2006
4.13
-
TIER
April 2006
3.91
-
CIER
April 2006
4.17
4.18
IMF
April 2006
4.5
4.5
EIU
July 2006
4.0
4.3
World Bank
March 2006
4.1
4.1
Global Insight
March 2006
3.7
3.9
Note: 1. DGBAS = Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Taiwan, ROC.
2. CIER = Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research, Taipei.
3. TIER = Taiwan Institute of Economic Research, Taipei.
4. IMF = International Monetary Fund.
5. EIU = Economist Intelligence Unit.
Source: Websites of each forecasting institution.
24
◎ Macroeconomic Targets
2006
4.5％
US$15,207
Targets
Growth of potential
GDP
Economic
growth
Per capita GDP
2006~2008
2006~2015
4.9％
4.6％
US$18,000
（2008）
US$27,000~30,000
（2015）
1.4％
Employment growth
1.4％
1.2％
Less than 4.0％
Unemployment rate
4.0％（2008）
4.0％（2015）
Less than 2.0％
CPI increase
New Century Manpower Plan
25
⊙ Sources of Potential GDP growth
26
V. Conclusion
Conference on Sustaining Taiwan’s Economic Development
(COSTED)
◎ Macroeconomic Targets
During 2006 to 2015, Taiwan’s average growth rate of GDP
is estimated at 5%.
Per capita GDP is projected to increase to US$32,000 in
2015.
27
Thank you
28