Transcript Slide 1
The shape of things to come: long run forces affecting the Australian economy Presentation to Queensland University of Technology Business Leaders’ Forum Ken Henry Thursday 22 October 2009 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -4 -6 -6 -8 -8 -10 -10 Slovenia Finland Taiwan Ireland Japan Denmark Sweden Italy Germany UK Slovakia Luxembourg Netherlands Czech Rep. Norway Austria Spain US Hong Kong Belgium Portugal Singapore Canada Iceland Malta France Korea New Zealand Switzerland Cyprus Israel Greece Australia Chart 1: GDP growth in advanced economies 2 Per cent Source: Ecowin. Per cent 2 Chart 2: Participation Rate 66 Per cent Per cent 66 64 64 62 62 60 60 58 1979-80 1989-90 1999-2000 Source: ABS Cat No. 6202.0 and Treasury. 2009-10 2019-20 2029-30 2039-40 58 2049-50 Chart 3: Per capita GDP convergence 100 % US GDP per capita ($PPP) % US GDP per capita ($PPP) 80 100 80 Japan (1955-2008) NIEs (1967-2008) 60 60 40 40 20 20 ASEAN-4 (1973-2008) China (1980-2008) India (1982-2008) 0 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 Source: The Conference Board Total Economy Database, IMF and Treasury. 0 36 40 44 48 52 Chart 4: Terms of Trade 140 Index (2006-07=100) Index (2006-07=100) 1950-51 (f) Sep 2008 1924-25 120 140 120 100 100 Mar 1974 80 80 60 60 40 1901 1912 1923 1934 1945 1956 1967 1978 1989 2000 40 2011 Note: From September quarter 1959, quarterly data from ABS Catalogue Number 5302.0; prior to September quarter 1959, MW Butlin (1977) ‘A Preliminary Annual Database 1900-01 to 1973-74’, RBA Discussion Paper 7701. Source: ABS Catalogue Number 5302.0, RBA and Treasury. Chart 5: Australia’s Current Account Balance 1901-2009 2 Per cent Per cent 2 Current account balance 0 0 -2 -2 Century average -4 -4 Past three decades average -6 -6 1900s 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s Source: ABS Catalogue Numbers 5206.0, 5302.0 and RBA. 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s Chart 6: Australia’s national saving 24 Per cent of GDP Per cent of GDP 24 22 22 20 20 18 18 16 16 14 14 12 12 1990 1992 1994 Australia 1996 1998 United States Note: Gross National Savings. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, ABS Cat No. 5206.0. 2000 2002 2004 Major Advanced Economies 2006 2008 Chart 7: Australia’s National Investment 25 Per cent of GDP Per cent of GDP 25 Total Investment 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 United Kingdom United States Germany France Canada Japan Australia OECD Average Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, OECD Economic Outlook, ABS Cat No. 5206.0. Data refers to average of 2000s. The shape of things to come: long run forces affecting the Australian economy Presentation to Queensland University of Technology Business Leaders’ Forum Ken Henry Thursday 22 October 2009