Transcript Sustainable Development Construction

Introduction to Sustainable Development
Lecture A
Purpose of the Course
 Introduce the Concept of Sustainability as the
Foundation of Future Society
 Provide a Foundation for Understanding and
Implementing Sustainability Principles
 Show the Importance of a Sustainable
Community as the Key Concept
 Indicate Methods for Implementing
Sustainability in Various Social and Economic
Sectors
Reasons for this Course
 Humankind is profoundly affecting the Earth:
Destruction of ecosystems and biodiversity
Global environmental problems: greenhouse warming, ozone
depletion, toxification, soil erosion, emissions
Mass movements of materials
Introduction of biological agents: estrogen mimickers, genetically
engineered products
 Humankind does not understand or appreciate the role of
ecosystems for our health and in our economy
 Humanity may be crashing the critical planetary ecosystems
 How do we change direction at this critical point in time?
Globally? In Poland?
Proposed Solution -Briefly
 Sustainable development or sustainability
 “Development that meets the needs of the
present without compromising the ability of
future generations to meet their own needs”
[World Commission on Environment and
Development, 1987; Our Common Future
(Brundtland Report)]
 Balancing environment, economy, and society’s
needs
 Sustainability Clarified: Satisfying lives for all within
the means of nature—now and in the future.
[Redefining Progress, 2002, www.rprogress.org]
 Sustainability
 Substitutability
 Deep Ecology
 Factor 4 and Factor 10
 Carrying Capacity
 Ecological Footprint
 Ecological Rucksack
 Adaptive Management
 Ecological Economics
 Environmental Ethics
 Clean Production
 Industrial Ecology
 Eco-efficiency
 MIPS
Some New Vocabulary
The Twin Problems: Population and
Consumption
 Human population has been growing exponentially since the
beginning of the industrial revolution (1.7%/year)
 Industrial production has also been growing at an exponential
rate (3.5%/year 1970-2000)
 World fertilizer consumption is doubling every 15 years.
Total use now is 15 times greater than the end of WWII.
 In this century, consumption of energy and materials will
increase by a Factor of 12 (2000-2100) if growth in population
continues at the same rates
Beyond the Limits to Growth, Meadows, Meadows, and Rander
World Population Growth
World Population Growth
World Demographic Transition
Population Growth over Time
 1650:
0.5 billion 0.3%/year DT=250 yrs
 1900:
1.6 billion 0.5%/year DT=140 yrs
 1970:
3.6 billion 2.1%/year DT= 34 yrs
 Result: Superexponential growth, the rate of
increase is increasing
 1990:
5.4 billion 1.7%/year DT= 42 yrs
 2000:
6.0 billion 1.7%/year DT= 42 yrs
World Industrial Production
Percent Change in Industrial Production from Previous Year
World Fertilizer Use 1950-2000
Year
1950
Total
106 tons
14
Per Person
Kg
5.5
1960
27
8.9
1970
66
17.8
1980
112
25.1
1990
143
27.1
2000
141
23.2
Worldwide Growth in Selected Activities 1970-2000
1970
2000
Population
3.6 billion
6.1 billion
Automobile Production
22.5 million
40.9 million
Oil consumption
2,189 MTOE
3,332 MTOE
Natural gas consumption
1,022 MTOE
2,277 MTOE
Coal consumption
1,635 MTOE
2,034 MTOE
Wind Energy Capacity(MW) approx 0
18,100
GDP ($-1999)
$16.3 trillion
$43.2 trillion
GDP ($-1999/capita
$4,407
$7,102
AIDS Deaths
approx 0
21.8 million
Key Lesson about Growth Rates
 Apparently small growth rates have massive
consequences
 World population growth rate is ‘only’ 1.7%
 Buy means 78 million new people per year
 World population doubled since 1960!
 Why?
Doubling Times
Growth Rate, %/year
Doubling Time (years)
0.1
700
0.5
140
1.0
70
2.0
35
3.0
23
4.0
18
5.0
14
6.0
10
7.0
7
Example: Nigeria’s Population
 Population growth rate: 2.7%/year
Year
Population (millions)
1990
118
2014
236
2038
472
2062
944
2086
1,888
Rule of 72
72/Growth Rate in %/year = Doubling Time in Years
Nigerian Example: 72/2.7% = 26.7 years
One more example: Paper!
 Double a sheet of paper: the thickness is
doubled.
 Double the sheet of paper 40 times: how
thick is it?
Thickness = 0.5 mm x 240 = 0.5 x 1.1 x 1012 = 5.5 x1011 mm
= 550,000,000,000 mm = 550,000 km
= distance from the Earth to the Moon!
IPAT Formula
Impact=Population x Affluence x Technology
I
=
P x A x T
Impact (throughput) of a population on the planet’s sources and sinks
equals the population times its affluence times the damage done by the
technologies supporting the affluence. Environmental impact/person
Source: Paul Ehrlich
Affecting IPAT Outcomes
 Population (P) : family planning, female literacy, social
welfare, role of women, land tenure
 Affluence (A) :
Capital
stock/person: values, prices, full costing, what do we want?,
What is enough?
Material throughput/capital stock: product longevity, material
choice, minimum materials design, recycling/reuse/recovery, scrap
recovery
 Technology (T) :
Energy/material throughput: End-use efficiency, conversion
efficiency, distribution efficiency, system integration, process
redesign
Environmental impact/Energy: Benign sources, scale, siting,
technical mitigation, offsets
Some Evidence of Real Problems
 Humans are coopting 40% of terrestrial and 30% of
aquatic Net Primary Production (NPP) (Vitousek et al
1986))
 Humans are coopting 26% of all evapotranspiration
and 54% of available water runoff, a net of about 30%
of all the solar powered hydrologic cycle (Postel 1997)
 Humans are moving 2x more material than all natural
forces combined (Schmidt-Bleek 1997)
 Atmospheric CO2 has risen from 290 ppm (early
1880’s) to 315 ppm in 1958, 345 ppm in 1990, 369
ppm in 2000
 Falling grain production
World Grain Production 1950-2006
Year
Total
106 tons
Per Person
Kg
1950
631
247
1960
824
271
1970
1,079
291
1980
1,430
321
1990
1,769
335
2000
1,840
303
2006
1,984
303
What is Sustainable Development?
_
Sustainable development is development that meets the
needs of the present without compromising the ability of
future generations to meet their own needs [World
Commission on Environment and Development, 1987; Our
Common Future (Brundtland Report)]
_
Agenda 21: In order to meet the challenges of
environment and development, States decided to engage
in a new global partnership ... sustainable development
should become a priority item on the agenda of the
international community [UN Conf on Env Dev, Rio de
Janeiro, June 1992]
_
... is nondeclining human well-being over time [David
Pearce, Economics of Sustainable Development, 1994]
More on Sustainable Development
 A particular system that when considered in isolation has a
positive balance in relation to its own costs and benefits
(Ravetz 1992)
 Improving the quality of life within the carrying capacity or
supporting ecosystems (WCU 1991)
 The use of energy and materials in an urban area in balance
with what the region can supply continuously through natural
processes such as photosynthesis, biological decomposition,
and the biochemical processes which sustain life (Lyle 1994)
 Something is 'sustainable' if it has the capacity to continue.
(Sustainable London)
Lester Brown (Worldwatch Institute)
 Over the long term for sustainability:
Species Extinction <= Species Evolution
Soil Erosion <= Soil Formation
Forest Destruction <= Forest Regeneration
Carbon Emissions <= Carbon Fixation
Fish Catches <= Regeneration Capacity of
Fisheries
Human Births <= Human Deaths
Key Points
Sustainability is concerned with future
generations, intergenerational justice,
resources, environment
Three systems must be maintained in healthy
a healthy relationship: ecological, social, and
economic
Natural systems hold the key to human
sustainability
The Systems
Natural (N)
Social (S)
Economic (E)
Proto-Sustainable Systems
N
E
S
Truly Sustainable Systems
E
S
N
Paradigm Shifts
NOW
Consumption
Depletion
Divided
Centralized
Artificial
Unhealthy
Linear
Impersonal
Bland
Rights
FUTURE
Conservation
Stewardship
Integrated
Local
Natural
Healthy
Circular
Community
Aesthetic
Responsibilities
Social problems
– erosion of the family
– educational system quality
– crime and prisoners
What is the connection
– decaying cities
between...?
 Economic problems
– unequal distribution of wealth
– shift of productivity income, workers to capital owners
– technology driven “creative destruction”
 Environmental problems
– loss of natural capital: rainforest
– greenhouse warming and ozone depletion
– loss of soil, over-fishing, over-grazing, over-foresting

Thinking Sustainably: Observe Nature
 There
is no such thing as waste
 Live off current solar income
 Respect and foster diversity
A key lesson from this course!
General Sustainability Principles
 minimize
resource consumption, use of
non-renewables, pollution, toxics, waste
 maximize efficiency, reuse, recycling,
renewable resource use
 foster conservation, understanding of natural
systems functions, economic justice
 focus on quality v. quantity, needs v. wants
 redesign the economy and artifacts to mimic
natural systems
Waste = Pollution = Inefficiency = Lost $



Positive Correlation: environmentalism & economic
prosperity
Germany
– environmental technologies
– environmental policy = economic policy
– improved environmental quality = improved
competitiveness
Japan
– 40% less energy in steel production than US, far less air
pollution
– defy conventional wisdom
– Research Agency of Innovative Technology for the
Earth: international competitiveness
Perverse Economics
 Environmental
damage actually add to GNP
 Depletion of natural resources adds to GNP (+ tax
credits!!)
 The polluter hardly pays
 Waste disposal is heavily subsidized
 Maximum ROI drives corporate decisions
 Discount rate maximizes today’s
consumption/depletion
Strong vs. Weak Sustainability
 Refers to different schools of thought
 Strong: natural capital is irreplaceable
 Weak: natural capital is substitutable by
manmade capital
 More discussion when we cover economic
concepts
Summary
 Extraction of resource and environmental damage
continuing and even accelerating
 We are rapidly destroying adapted, diverse
ecosystems crucial to both our economy and our
survival
 Growth as a basic assumption of the economic
system is mathematically and physically impossible
 Sustainability can help us change course to live
within the constraints of nature with a high quality
of life, to change our thinking.
“The significant problems we face cannot be
solved at the same level of thinking we were
at when we created them.” - Albert Einstein