Transcript No Slide Title

Regional Visions of Integrated Sustainable Infrastructure Optimised for Neighbourhoods
Alternative transportation
technologies compared
John D Nelson
ReVISIONS Annual Symposium June 2012, Sao Paulo
Regional Visions of Integrated Sustainable Infrastructure Optimised for Neighbourhoods
Overview
• Context of this study
– Transport
– Technology
– Policy: The National Infrastructure Plan
• Transport technologies for supply-side measures
within ReVISIONS
• Concluding remarks
Regional Visions of Integrated Sustainable Infrastructure Optimised for Neighbourhoods
Transport context
• Transport is a key determinant of people’s travel
choices and “costs” of travel, and hence
influences the location of households and firms as
well as energy demands. This in turn influences
infrastructure requirements
• The ReVISIONS project is testing combinations of
future spatial options and transport policies,
including priorities for infrastructure investment
• ReVISIONS has found, like the NIP, that new
technologies would be needed to provide more
substantial benefits.
Regional Visions of Integrated Sustainable Infrastructure Optimised for Neighbourhoods
Technology context
•
•
•
•
•
Technology is a key determinant of future transport
policy
Over the next 25 years: what technology is inevitable,
very likely or a far off vision?
Is the technology likely to have significant impacts on
travel behaviour or on network conditions when
aggregated to the regional level?
Is the technology likely to have significant impacts on
sustainability?
Is the technology likely to have significant impacts on
other sectors (e.g. demands for energy or health
impacts etc.)?
Regional Visions of Integrated Sustainable Infrastructure Optimised for Neighbourhoods
Digital Economy
 Digital Economy
 is the novel design or use of information
and communication technologies to help
transform the lives of individuals, society
or business
 RCUK Digital Economy Programme
 EPSRC (lead Council), AHRC and ESRC
 Transport is a priority theme
 http://www.rcukdigitaleconomy.org.uk/
Regional Visions of Integrated Sustainable Infrastructure Optimised for Neighbourhoods
The National
Infrastructure Plan
“Britain will not be able to compete in the modern
world unless we improve our infrastructure. Our
transport systems are congested. Many of our
older and more polluting power stations will come
to the end of their lives over the next decade.
Increases in population will put more pressure on
our water supplies and advances in technology
will increase demand for digital connectivity.”
http://www.hmtreasury.gov.uk/national_infrastructure_plan201
1.htm
Regional Visions of Integrated Sustainable Infrastructure Optimised for Neighbourhoods
The NIP Strategy
•
The NIP sets out a new strategy for meeting the infrastructure needs of the
UK economy. There are three elements to this strategy.
– A plan for the medium term and across sectors. The Plan brings together
the first ever comprehensive cross-sectoral analysis of the UK’s
infrastructure networks and sets out a clear pipeline of over 500
infrastructure projects.
– Mobilisation of the finance required to deliver these projects. The Plan
sets out a new approach to co-ordinating public and private investment
in UK infrastructure. Public capital investment is prioritised towards
infrastructure that supports growth. Private investment will finance the
majority of the infrastructure by bringing in new investors; introducing
new sources of revenue such as tolling; and allowing local authorities
more flexibility in the way they use local receipts to fund major
infrastructure in specific circumstances.
– The Government will take an active role in ensuring the infrastructure in
the Plan is delivered efficiently and on time, with priority given to those
projects most critical for economic growth. Government will play their
part in tackling planning and regulatory delays and addressing key
commercial and policy issues.
Regional Visions of Integrated Sustainable Infrastructure Optimised for Neighbourhoods
Transport and the NIP
•
The vision for the future of the transport networks is:
– to keep Britain moving by improving the capacity, performance and resilience of
roads, railways and international gateways, making smarter use of existing
infrastructure and tackling performance problems.
– to improve integration between different modes of transport, improving people’s
choice as to how they travel and facilitating movement of freight from road to rail
and water where this is viable and appropriate;
– to support the move to a low carbon economy, reducing the environmental
impacts of the transport system so that transport greenhouse gas emissions are
falling, and supporting cost effective delivery of the UK’s carbon budgets; and
– to improve connectivity and capacity between main urban areas and between
them and international gateways, to deal with longer term capacity constraints, by
delivering a series of projects to enhance network capability, including reducing
journey times and improving interchanges.
Regional Visions of Integrated Sustainable Infrastructure Optimised for Neighbourhoods
Transport Infrastructure /
technologies in ReVISIONS
• Options include:
–
–
–
–
–
Highway measures
Bus based measures
Rail based measures
Vehicle and engine technologies
General demand reduction
Regional Visions of Integrated Sustainable Infrastructure Optimised for Neighbourhoods
Modelling transport
technologies
• For each technology the following
characteristics will form a set of inputs to
the ReVISIONS modelling framework:
– scale of introduction over time
– the cost of introduction (per unit or per km as appropriate)
– cost to user (per unit (e.g. purchase cost) or per km (e.g.
operating cost) as appropriate)
– any impacts in terms of changes to travel times, congestion levels,
speeds, carbon emissions etc.
– changes in capacity on the network.
Regional Visions of Integrated Sustainable Infrastructure Optimised for Neighbourhoods
Highway measures
• Technologies to increase road capacity through
advanced traffic management and signalling
systems
–
–
–
–
Urban Traffic Control (UTC)
Motorway hard shoulder running
In-vehicle dynamic route guidance systems
Autonomous vehicles
Regional Visions of Integrated Sustainable Infrastructure Optimised for Neighbourhoods
Traffic signalling/control
•
•
•
•
•
New wireless vehicle-detection and
communication systems provide a
reliable, accurate and cost-effective
alternative to inductive loop
detectors
Permits accurate vehicle detection
to be deployed at a much higher
density than has previously been
possible.
A real-time traffic signal control system
Source: various papers and websites
Several systems globally: SCOOT,
SCATS, OPAC, RHODES,
SPOTS/UTOPIA, PRODYN, MOTION
SCOOT is most prevalent in UK
– on average reduces delays by
approx 20% over typical fixed
time system
– av reduction in journey time
across the network of 8%
Fuel saving potential ~ 20%
A simplified diagram of the RHODES operation
Source: Mirchandani and Lucas (2004)
Regional Visions of Integrated Sustainable Infrastructure Optimised for Neighbourhoods
Bus based measures
• Technologies to reduce bus wait times or
increase bus speed
– Real-time bus information via mobile devices
– Bus priority systems
– Smart card payment
Regional Visions of Integrated Sustainable Infrastructure Optimised for Neighbourhoods
Real-time passenger information
Real-time bus information (provided via mobile
device) before arrival at the bus stop
• Time saving evidence:
– OneBus Away system, Seattle: 91% of users
reported spending less time waiting
– Transit Tracker system, 95% of users stated
system reduces their wait time
•
Actual time savings depends on frequency (and
reliability) of bus services
•
Cost of introduction :
– costs in the order of £1,600 - £3,500 per
bus at 2008 prices (Source - AECOM 2008)
– Britain has approximately 40,000
conventional buses in service. To equip all
of these at £2000 per bus would cost
£80m. Replacement needed every 5 years.
Regional Visions of Integrated Sustainable Infrastructure Optimised for Neighbourhoods
Smart cards
•
A credit-card-sized piece of plastic which has a
microchip with the ability to read and write data, and
to store much more data all within an extremely
secure environment.
National smart ticketing infrastructure
Source: DfT and Detica (2009)
Or
• Near Field Communications (NFC) equipped phone
•
Key benefits include: reduced boarding times + simple
ticketing for passengers; improved public transport
running times and fuel efficiency for operators
•
75% of passenger boarding time could be saved
amounting to 15 seconds per stop. This equates to a
total average journey time saving of 2 ½ minutes.
•
Cost of introduction :
– Considerable start-up costs to rolling out national
smart ticketing schemes on buses across England
(£360m).
– The on-going costs are lower but also significant
(£75m).
Regional Visions of Integrated Sustainable Infrastructure Optimised for Neighbourhoods
Rail based measures
• Measures to increase rail capacity
– Improvements to rail signalling systems
• CBTC ; ERTMS
• Measures to increase rail speed
– Rail electrification
– High speed commuter rail / Super Express trains
Regional Visions of Integrated Sustainable Infrastructure Optimised for Neighbourhoods
Rail electrification
Source: DfT (2009) Britain’s Transport Infrastructure
Rail Electrification
•
Approximately 33% of the British rail network is
currently electrified
•
Typically an electric train emits 20–35% less carbon
per passenger mile than a diesel train. This advantage
will increase over time as our power generation mix
becomes less carbon intensive.
+ Regenerative braking enables many electric trains to reuse the energy that would otherwise have been lost
when braking, by converting the energy of motion back
into electricity
Electric trains have zero emissions at the point of use
•
•
Electric trains can provide additional carrying capacity
compared to a diesel train of the same overall length.
Diesel high-speed trains are unable to carry many
people in the power cars at either end of the train.
This is not the case for electric trains.
In addition to the journey time savings, it is expected
that the introduction of Super Express trains will
provide at least 15% extra capacity on intercity
services during the morning peak hour.
Regional Visions of Integrated Sustainable Infrastructure Optimised for Neighbourhoods
Vehicle and engine technologies
• Petrol /diesel engine
technology
improvements
• Alternatively fuelled
vehicles
• Electric vehicles
Regional Visions of Integrated Sustainable Infrastructure Optimised for Neighbourhoods
UK Scenarios
• King Review (2007):
– A mixture of fuels in 2030 (different fuels suit different uses)
– EV for short city journeys and PHEV/alternative fuels vehicles for long journeys
• BERR and DfT (2008):
– Forecast EV and PHEV market uptake up to 2030
Business as usual:
2010: 0.01%
Extreme scenario:
2010: 0.01%
– EV energy use in kWh/km =
2020: 1% 2030: 8%
2020: 9% 2030: 59%
2010: 0.16; 2020: 0.13; 2030: 0.11
– Emission factor well to wheel in gCO2e/km =
2010:
2020:
2030:
EV
ICE (petrol)
ICE (diesel)
69
56
47
172
144
120
156
130
109
Regional Visions of Integrated Sustainable Infrastructure Optimised for Neighbourhoods
General Demand Reduction
Measures
Source: various sources
•
Telecommuting:
– On its own transport substitution through the use of ICT will deliver only
modest reductions in overall traffic levels for 3 basic reasons:
• Work-related trips are only around half of all trips by car
• UK figures show 83% of full-time employees currently consider it
would not be possible for them to work at home (DfT, 2005). Even
accounting for changing working practices in the future, probably
only about 30-40% of work can effectively be done on a flexible
location basis.
• It is likely that other trips will be generated.
– UK evidence has shown an apparent higher incidence of part-day
homeworking compared to whole-day homeworking amongst full-time
paid employees - the implication is that this could in future contribute to
spreading of peak period traffic (Haddad, Lyons and Chatterjee, 2009)
– Homeworking clearly has potential, in principle, to make a modest
contribution towards reducing the growth of peak time congestion. The
potential for reducing carbon emissions is less clear.
Regional Visions of Integrated Sustainable Infrastructure Optimised for Neighbourhoods
Concluding remarks
• Technology is a key determinant of future
transport policy but we must understand the
drivers of travel demand
• What is the role of roads, railways and high speed
broadband in promoting growth across regions
and nations?
• How can we co-ordinate and plan public and
private investment?
• How can any plan be delivered efficiently and on
time?
Regional Visions of Integrated Sustainable Infrastructure Optimised for Neighbourhoods
Contact details
Centre for Transport Research http://www.abdn.ac.uk/ctr
RCUK dot.rural Digital Economy Research Hub
http://www.dotrural.ac.uk
Professor John D Nelson
[email protected]
Dr Steve Wright
[email protected]
Regional Visions of Integrated Sustainable Infrastructure Optimised for Neighbourhoods
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Regional Visions of Integrated Sustainable Infrastructure Optimised for Neighbourhoods