Transcript Diapositiva 1 - Universidad Autonoma de Madrid

RENEWABLE ENERGIES AND
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE
MEDITERRANEAN: THE CASE OF
MOROCCO (Simulation 2010-2040)
PROJECT: FEM34-02
Co-directors: Prof. A. Lorca & Prof. de Arce
RENEWABLE ENERGIES AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE MEDITERRANEAN: MOROCCO AND THE MEDITERRANEAN SOLAR PLAN
RESEARCH TEAM:
Prof. Idriss El Abbassi (Université Mohamed V)
Prof. Abdelhamid El Bouhadi (Université Mohamed V)
Prof. Rafael de Arce (UAM – AGREEM)
Prof. Gonzalo Escribano (UNED)
Mr. AyacheKhellaf(Université Mohamed V)
Prof. Alejandro Lorca (UAM – AGREEM)
Prof. Ramón Mahia (UAM – AGREEM)
Prof. Jose María Marín (UNED)
Prof. Eva Medina (Universidad Autónoma de Madrid)
Prof. Lahcen Oulhaj (Université Mohamed V)
Prof. Said Tounsi (Université Mohamed V)
RENEWABLE ENERGIES AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE MEDITERRANEAN: MOROCCO AND THE MEDITERRANEAN SOLAR PLAN
Project Narrative
 Renewable Energies (RES) have become an identity sign of
EU’s Energy Policy.
 The Union for the Mediterranean (UfM) has launched the
Mediterranean Solar Plan (MSP) to support RES deployment in
the region.
 Morocco is probably on of the best positioned country to
implement the Mediterranean Solar Plan.
 The MSP would help Morocco to supply its domestic
electricity markets with RES, and may be to export a surplus
benefiting from the new green energy trade.
RENEWABLE ENERGIES AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE MEDITERRANEAN: MOROCCO AND THE MEDITERRANEAN SOLAR PLAN
Within this regional and national context, the
main objective of this project is to analyze the
economic effects of building Concentrated
Solar Plants (CSP), Photovoltaic (PV) and
Wind farms (WP) installation in Morocco
during the next 30 years.
Concerned Technologies in the MSP
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RENEWABLE ENERGIES AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE MEDITERRANEAN: MOROCCO AND THE MEDITERRANEAN SOLAR PLAN
RES ElectricityMix in Morocco
(Baseline,MW)
CSP
(PARAB. THROUGH) WIND POWER PHOTOVOLTAIC
TOTAL
2010
20
284
13
317
2012
20
1,192
20
1,232
2015
225
1,595
50
1,870
2020
416
2,000
80
2,496
2030
1,299
3,390
128
4,816
2040
2,893
5,777
205
8,875
Evolution of CostsbyTechnology
Parabolic Through
Tower Plant
140,000
250,000
C t Storage
C t Power Block
200,000
C t Solar Field
150,000
120,000
100,000
Storage
80,000
Tower
60,000
100,000
Power block
Solar Field
40,000
50,000
20,000
0
2000 2006 2007 2010 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050
0
2000 2006 2007 2010 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050
Photovoltaic
Windmills
1,400
5,000.0
4,500.0
1,200
4,000.0
1,000
3,500.0
3,000.0
Bateries/Storage
2,500.0
PV modules
2,000.0
BOS
1,500.0
Tower
Power block
600
Electric Installation
400
200
1,000.0
500.0
0.0
2009
800
0
2008 2009
2010
2020
2025
2030
2040
2050
2010 2015 2020
2025 2030
2040
2050
Methodology I: Production Effect
“SECTORIZED” INVESTMENT / BUSINESS PLAN
DOMESTIC / INTERNATIONAL COEFFICIENTS
TIME DECOMPOSITION
Coef_GOS
t

GOS
t
COE
t
I-O FINAL DEMAND INCREASE
DIRECT EF. INDUCED
DEMAND
=
DISAGGREGATION BY
SECTOR
LABOUR
PRODUCTIVITY TIME
SERIES MODELS
TOTAL EFFECT
INDUCED DEMAND
(DIRECT + INDIRECT)
=
Value added Coefficient
Δ VALUE ADDED
P' = (I-A)-1D
Employment Coefficient
Δ EMPLOYMENT
Methodology II: Induced Demand Effect
PRODUCTION EFFECT EMPLOYMENT INCREASE
SALARIES
(-) TAXES
(+) NEW YIELD
(-) SAVES
Δ CONSUMPTION YIELD
DIRECT EF.
INDUCED DEMAND
=
DETAIL BY
CONSUMPTION
STANDARD BASKET
=
P' = (I-A)-1D
TOTAL EF.
INDUCED DEMAND
(DIRECT + INDIRECT)
Value added Coefficient
Δ VALUE ADDED
Employment Coefficient
Δ EMPLOYMENT
RENEWABLE ENERGIES AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE MEDITERRANEAN: MOROCCO AND THE MEDITERRANEAN SOLAR PLAN
Scenarios of Simulation and Main Results
PROGRESSIVE REDUCTION OF
IMPORTED COMPONENTS
NO
YES
NO
20% OF RENEWABLE ENERGY
BASELINE
“SMART”
“EXPORTS”
“SMART
EXPORTS”
CSP EXPORTS
-
PV EXPORTS
-
WF EXPORTS
-
EXPORTING
INCREASING ...CSP PLANTS
THE INSTALLED
CAPACITY IN
...PV PLANTS
RENEWABLES
...WIND
TO EXPORT
FARMS
WITH...
RENEWABLE ENERGIES AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE MEDITERRANEAN: MOROCCO AND THE MEDITERRANEAN SOLAR PLAN
Scenarios of Simulation and Main Results
PROGRESSIVE REDUCTION OF
IMPORTED COMPONENTS
NO
YES
NO
20% OF RENEWABLE ENERGY
EXPORTING
BASELINE
“SMART”
+1.17% GDP
+1.59% GDP
+265,730 Empl +401,671 Empl.
“EXPORTS”
+1.41% GDP
+318,876 Empl.
+1.27% GDP
INCREASING ...CSP PLANTS
+289,369 Mill.
THE INSTALLED
+1.24% GDP
CAPACITY IN
...PV PLANTS
+282,631 Empl.
RENEWABLES
TO EXPORT
...WIND
+1.6% GDP
WITH...
FARMS
+415,032 Empl.
“SMART
EXPORTS”
+1.91% GDP
+482,005 Empl.
-
-
RENEWABLE ENERGIES AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE MEDITERRANEAN: MOROCCO AND THE MEDITERRANEAN SOLAR PLAN
TOTAL INVESTMENT BY SCENARIO (,000 EUROS)
6,000,000
9,000,000
8,000,000
7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
2010
2020
2030
2010
2040
2020
CSP
2030
PV
2010
2020
2030
2040
BASELINE SCENARIO
407,970
1,043,078
3,573,795
5,950,772
EXPORTS OF 20% SURPLUS
407,970
1,251,693
4,288,554
7,140,926
CSP
407,970
1,416,230
4,834,630
8,041,514
PV
407,970
1,826,916
3,876,471
7,678,002
WIND
407,970
1,288,267
2,268,991
5,194,873
WIND
2040
FINAL REMARKS
RES deployment entails a significant direct economic impact for
Morocco in terms of GDP and employment .
Additionally, preliminary results of a GEM shows that the increase in energy
capacity could increase potential growth, rising real GDP growth between
0.1%-0.4%, lowering consumption and exporting prices and noticeable
increasing labor income and public savings and revenues.
Comparing technologies, wind farms seems the tech alternative that
produces more benefits in terms of GDP and employment growth is the
installation of wind farms.
Technology import dependency limits the positive impact of RES
deployment.
RENEWABLE ENERGIES AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE MEDITERRANEAN: MOROCCO AND THE MEDITERRANEAN SOLAR PLAN
SOME ADITIONAL MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS
Taking into account the General Equilibrium Model of the “Haut Commisariat
du Plan de Maroc”:
Real GDP growth could be higher by 0.4% in the first years to 0.1% in the
end would mean that the potential growth will increase with the increase in
energy capacity.
Increase of labor income which
will be higher by 1.71%.
Government savings which will
increase by 3.8%.
Total government revenue will be
higher by 0.64%