Transcript PRESENTATION OF THE VIENNA INSTITUTE FOR

Wiener Institut für
Internationale
Wirtschaftsvergleiche
The Vienna Institute for
International Economic
Studies
www.wiiw.ac.at
Russia‘s WTO accession and Austria
Vasily Astrov
3 November 2011
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Austria‘s exports to Russia, 2010
Source: own calculations based on Statistik Austria
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WTO impact on AT exports to RU
 WTO accession
decline in some RU import tariffs
- +20% for chemicals (incl. pharmaceuticals) exports to RU
- +3% for machinery & equipment exports to RU
 Long run
 WTO multilateral rounds of trade liberalization
- + up to 40% for chemicals exports to RU
- + up to 25% for machinery & equipment exports to RU
 Efficiency gains in RU economy – higher GDP growth
– more import demand
- + up to 25% for overall AT exports to RU
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Austria‘s imports from Russia, 2010
Source: own calculations based on Statistik Austria
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WTO impact on AT imports from RU:
more limited
 Energy imports (85% of total) not affected by WTO
 Non-energy: MFN (or GSP) import tariffs apply already now!
 Less non-tariff barriers (anti-dumping…): not guaranteed
 Long run:
 Higher competitiveness of RU exports: +1% increase
 WTO multilateral rounds of trade liberalization
lower MFN import tariffs in EU
up to +50%?
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WTO impact on RU-AT investments
 AT FDI stock in RU: ~ € 6 billion
- 2014 Olympic Games in Sochi – infrastructure projects
- WTO: little impact on banking sector
- But: esp. Raiffeisenbank already active in RU!
- Insurance sector to be liberalized more: possibilities for AT companies
 RU FDI stock in AT: ~ € 2 billion (???)
- Deripaska – Strabag
- Energy cooperation and RU-EU political rapprochement more important
than WTO
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