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Role of Integrated
Environment Assessment
Models in Developing
Nations
APEIS Capacity Building Workshop on
Integrated Environment Assessment in the Asia-Pacific Region
October 24-26, 2002, New Delhi
Prof. Dr. Tsuneyuki Morita
National Institute for Environmental Studies
Framework of APEIS
WSSD
Propose Asia-Pacific model
ECO ASIA Ministerial Meeting
ECO ASIA Panel
Scientific database and options
Policy Guidance
International Scientific Activities
International
organizations
(ADB, UNEP,
UNU)
APN
Joint project
collaboration
Research on innovative and strategic
policy options
Sub-projects
Integrated
Environmental
Monitoring
Integrated
Environmental
Assessment
Create linkages and cooperative structures
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and Other international projects
2
Management Framework
ECO ASIA
· Environmental ministers and international
organizations from the Asia-Pacific region
→Forum for policy discussion
based on outcomes of scientific
activities and provider of policy
guidance
ECO ASIA Panel
· Senior officials from Asia-Pacific countries
· Members of RCC
· Representatives from international
organizations
→Review, endorsement and
coordination of the overall project
→Forum for coordination between
scientific activities and policy
makers
Research Coordination Committee (RCC)
· Representatives of each sub-project and APN
experts
→Coordination between each subproject
→Development of a draft overall
research plan
IEM
IEA
RISPO
Sub-Projects
3
Objectives of APEIS
• To develop scientific knowledge-based tools and innovative
strategy options to promote informed decision-making
• To promote regional cooperation and capacity building
• To propose a model of a regional initiative to substantiate and
realize the Plan of Implementation for the WSSD
Three Sub-Projects
• IEM: to develop an integrated environmental monitoring system
• IEA: to provide integrated models of the environment and
economy, as well as a strategic database
• RISPO: to propose innovative and strategic policy options and
policy inventories
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Integrated Environmental
Assessments (IEA)
• A set of integrated assessment models as major tools of
APEIS, including an environment-economy model, an
ecosystem/health impact model, a water
resource/agriculture model, a material/recycle-economy
model and an energy technology model
• Strategic database as well as indicators for APEIS use
• Systematic projections of environmental trends as well
as assessments of innovative options based on the above
models and database
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Participating Organizations
NIES (Japan); Kyoto University (Japan); Energy Research
Institute (China); Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural
Resources Research(China); Indian Institute of Management,
Ahmedabad (India); Asian Institute of Technology (Thailand);
Korea Environment Institute (Korea); Sangmyung University
(Korea); Universiti Putra Malaysia (Malaysia)
Calling for wider participation
Capacity Building Activities
(1) Assessment models are transferred with detailed manuals
(2) Experts are invited to NIES or participating organizations
to participate in the model development process
(3) The 1st Capacity Building Workshop on IEA will be held in
October 2002 in Delhi, India.
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Economic growth
Why is Innovation Required for
Environmental Policies?
Introduction
very strict
of innovations
tradeoffs
in Asia
Environmental protection
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SO2 emissions [million t]
40
35
Reduction by fuel switch
30
20
Predicted emissions without control
Reduction by Industrial Structure Change
15
Actual emissions
25
10
5
0
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
year
Reduction by Flue-gas Desulfurization
8
(Billons $U.S.)
Actual Investments for Flue-Gas Desulfurization
and Model Calculation Results(1960-1990)
Flue-Gas Desulfurizatio Investment
1.2
Actual Values
1
Model Estimate Values
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1960
1965
1970
1975
Year
1980
1985
1990
9
Why the Japanese pollution control was integrated with
economic development ?
(1) Technological development was essential to reduce
the costs of pollution abatement.
(2) A Competitive market gave an environment which was
crucial in giving companies the incentive to invest in
technology development.
(3) Environmental investment created new businesses
and industries in Japan, which increased Japan’s GDP.
(4) Such environmental investment improved not only the
quality of products, but also production processes and
recycling processes in factories, which in turn
encouraged Japan’s long-term development.
Per Capita SO2 [tS]
0.14
Japan
0.12
0.10
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
1990
1885
0.00
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
Per Capita GDP [1990 US$]
25000
11
Per Capita SO2[tS]
0.14
Japan
US
0.12
0.10
0.08
0.06
0.04
1990
1870
0.02
0.00
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
Per Capita GDP [1990 US$]
25000
12
Per Capita SO2 [tS]
0.14
Japan
US
China
0.12
0.10
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
Per Capita GDP [1990 US$]
25000
13
If China follows Japanese experience,
Japanese
experience,
--If China follows US
and European
experience,
--and if China precede Japan
--US
Per Capita SO2 [tS]
0.030
0.025
0.020
China
0.015
0.010
China
0.005
Japan
0.000
0
10000
20000
30000
Per Capita GDP [US$]
40000
Following US/Europe
Following Japan
Following but preceding Japan
14
Production of Environmental Industries
in the Asia-Pacific Major Countries (billion US$)
203
Year Year
2002 2032
119
112
37
9.4
12
65
2.6
IND
KOR
CHN
1.7
JPN
11
0.6
THA
13
PHL
22
1.4
IDN
Estimated by AIM model
7.8 16
15
AUS
Policymaking
Process
AIM
IMAGE
(Asia)
(Netherlands）
GCAM
MIT
（USA）
(USA）
Integrated Assessment
meteorology
ecology
geophysics
pedology
geochemistry
Atmospheric
Chemistry
economics
policy sciences
paleoclimatology
hydraulics
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What is Integrated Assessment (IA) ?
A framework for the "best available synthesis of current
scientific, technical, economic, and sociopolitical knowledge"
(IPCC 1995).
History
beginning 1970s
1st IA : Climatic Impacts Assessment Program (CIAP)
late 1970s
Formal computer simulation models were introduced
during 1980s
IA trials in ozone layer, acid rain, and climate change issues
1990s
Rapid increase of interest in the IA and many progresses in
computer simulation models as a core tool of IA.
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Integrated assessment and Capacity Building


integrated assessment approaches have led to
improvements in communication between
policy-makers and scientists
the development of Integrated Assessment
Model has greatly improved the ability of, and
incentives for, scientists and policy makers to
integrate their research and governance
activities
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Integrated assessment and Capacity Building
(cont.)


the development of integrated assessment
approaches has created a competitive situation
among science and policy fields, which
encourage new research and policymaking
therefore, long-term joint research program for
integrated assessment is one of very effective
way to build capacity for comprehensive
policymaking
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