Transcript Cover Page

Economic Outlook
September 12, 2008
Table of Contents
I.
National Economic Overview
II.
Residential Real Estate Summary
III.
The Carolinas
Appendix
Wachovia Economics Group
2
National Economic Overview
Wachovia Economics Group
3
U.S. Economic Overview
National Economic Overview
Real GDP May Not Be Negative Going Forward, But We Still Expect the Weakest Consumer Cycle Since the
1981-82 Recession
Highlights



Real GDP
Tax rebate payments boosted
consumption in the second quarter and
may provide some limited help in the
second half of the year, but we still expect
the weakest consumer environment since
the early 1980s.
Labor markets continue to struggle as job
losses stretch into their eighth straight
month in August. The unemployment rate
has surged to over six percent.
The major positive contributions to GDP in
the second half will be from fewer
inventory liquidations and continued
improvement in the nation’s trade balance.
8.0%
Bars = Compound Annual Growth Rate
Nonfarm Employment Change
Line = Yr/ Yr Percent Change
Change in Employment in Thousands
8.0%
500
7.0%
7.0%
400
400
6.0%
6.0%
300
300
200
200
100
100
Forecast
5.0%
5.0%
4.0%
4.0%
3.0%
3.0%
0
2.0%
2.0%
1.0%
1.0%
0.0%
0.0%
GDPR - CAGR: Q2 @3.3%
GDPR - Yr/ Yr Percent Change: Q2 @2.2%
-1.0%
2000
2002
2004
2006
-100
-100
-200
-200
-1.0%
-300
-2.0%
-400
-300
Nonfarm Employment Change: Aug @-84,000
-2.0%
1998
0
2008
-400
2000
2001
2002
Wachovia U.S. Economic Forecast
Actual
Real Gross Domestic Product
Personal Consumption
Business Fixed Investment
Equipment and Software
2
3
Consumer Price Index
Corporate Profits Before Taxes
10-Year Treasury Note
1
3
2006
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Bars = Compound Annual Growth Rate
Line = Yr/ Yr Percent Change
Forecast
2007
2008
Core PCE Deflator
3.5%
2005
500
2008
2009
3.5%
Forecast
3.0%
3.0%
2.5%
2.5%
2.0%
2.0%
1.5%
1.5%
1.0%
1.0%
2010
2.9
3.0
7.2
9.3
3.4
2.8
3.0
7.5
7.2
3.2
2.0
2.8
4.9
1.7
2.9
1.8
1.0
3.0
0.1
4.2
1.8
0.9
-1.6
-0.2
2.0
2.2
2.1
-1.1
2.0
1.9
11.9
4.39
16.0
4.71
-0.6
4.04
-5.7
3.80
6.4
4.10
10.7
4.30
0.5%
0.5%
"Core" PCE Deflator - CAGR: Q2 @2.1%
"Core" PCE Deflator - Yr/ Yr Percent Change: Q2 @2.2%
0.0%
1998
0.0%
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Forecast as of: September 10, 2008 2Compound Annual Growth Rate 3 Year-over-Year Percent Change
Source: Federal Reserve Board, U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of Labor and Wachovia
Wachovia Economics Group
4
U.S. Economic Overview
National Economic Overview
The Economy Feels Weaker on Main Street Than the Real GDP Data Would Indicate
Highlights
 The real trade balance has been
Trade Balance in Goods
$0
3-Month Moving Average, Billions of Dollars
-$10
improving in recent months.
-$20
Exports are being fueled by a weak
dollar and strong foreign demand.
-$30
The nominal deficit has remained
-$40
wider on energy price changes.
-$50
Weak personal consumption will
-$60
restrain import growth even further
-$70
Nominal Trade Balance: Jun @-$71.7 Billion
in coming quarters, leading to
Real Trade Balance: Jun @-$43.2 Billion
additional reductions in the trade
-$80
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
gap.
 Real Core GDP, private domestic
final sales, has been negative in
two of the last three quarters, and
Change in Real Inventories
we estimate it will stay negative into
Billions of Dollars, Annual Rate
$125
next year. This measure lines up
$100
better with what consumers and
Forecast
$75
businesses are feeling on Main
$50
Street than headline GDP.
$25
 Nominal GDP, a measure of
$0
revenue growth for the economy,
-$25
continues to grow at a below-trend
-$50
pace; this means corporate
revenue growth will remain sluggish
-$75
Change in Private Inventories: Q2 @-$49.4B
in coming quarters.
-$100
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
 Inventory growth has been weak for
some time, which will limit the
downside risk to the economy inSource: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wachovia
this cycle.
Real "Core" GDP
$0
Bars = Compound Annual Growth Rate
8.0%
Line = Yr/ Yr Percent Change
8.0%
-$10
6.0%
6.0%
-$20
Forecast
4.0%
4.0%
2.0%
2.0%
0.0%
0.0%
-$30
-$40
-$50
-$60
-2.0%
-2.0%
-$70
-$80
"Core" GDP - CAGR: Q2 @1.1%
"Core" GDP - Yr/ Yr Percent Change: Q2 @0.7%
-4.0%
-4.0%
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Nominal GDP
$125
Compound Annual Growth Rate
10.0%
10.0%
$100
$75
Forecast
8.0%
8.0%
$50
6.0%
6.0%
4.0%
4.0%
$25
$0
-$25
-$50
2.0%
-$75
-$100
2.0%
Nominal GDP - CAGR: Q2 @4.6%
Nominal GDP - Yr/ Yr Percent Change: Q2 @4.2%
0.0%
1998
0.0%
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Wachovia Economics Group
5
Consumer Overview
National Economic Overview
Consumers Are Getting Squeezed on Many Fronts, But Rebates Gave Temporary Relief This Summer
Discretionary
Consumer
Discretionary
Spending Spending
July-2008
Other
Discretionary
19%
Housing Away
from Home
1%
Alcohol & Tobacco
3%
Clothing & Shoes
4%
Non-Discretionary
56%
Recreation
4%
Furniture &
HHEquip
4%
Motor Vehicles
4%
Negative
 Food & Energy Costs
 Food and energy continue to eat
a larger share of consumer
income.
 Housing & Home Equity
 Housing prices and home equity
are now falling, weighing on
consumer spending and
sentiment.
 Weakening Labor Market
 The labor market is expected to
continue its weakening trend for
at least the rest of the year.
Food Away from
Home
5%
Positive
Retail Sales Ex. Auto and Gas vs. Income Growth
3-Month Moving Averages
15.0%
15.0%
Tax Cut 2
12.5%
12.5%
Housing Refi
Boom
Stock Market
Bubble
Tax
Rebates
10.0%
Tax Cut 1
10.0%
7.5%
7.5%
5.0%
5.0%
2.5%
2.5%
0.0%
0.0%
-2.5%
-2.5%
Disposable Personal Income Yr/ Yr % Change: Jul @7.8%
3-Month Annual Rate: Jul @8.6%
-5.0%
-5.0%
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wachovia
04
05
06
07
08
 Tax Rebates
 The tax rebate checks have
landed in and left the pockets of
most Americans. This positive
will begin to fade in coming
months.
 Declining Energy Prices
 While energy prices remain well
above year ago levels, the
recent declines are a small but
welcome respite for consumers.
Wachovia Economics Group
6
Credit Spreads & The Yield Curve
National Economic Overview
We Are Not Out of the Woods Yet
Highlights


200
275
275
250
250
225
225
200
200
175
175
150
150
TED: Aug @106 bps
150
150
100
100
50
50
125
125
Mortgages: Aug @251 bps
0
0
1996
1998
2000
Baa Corporate Spread
2002
2004
2006
2008
100
1996
100
1998
CDX IG Index
Basis Points
400
Basis Points
Basis Points
200
The TED spread had again shown
improvement in late spring, only to blowout anew in July.
Mortgages are more expensive than they
have been historically. Restrictive lending
standards have also made them more
difficult to obtain. Fannie Mae & Freddie
Mac’s conservatorship, however, has
already begun to help, quickly pushing in
mortgage spreads.
Corporate credit is also more costly but
businesses are tapping the market
anyway to build a capital cushion.

Conventional Mortgage to 10-Year Treasury Spread
Ted Spread
400
175
350
300
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
2004
2006
2008
Basis Points
300
CDX - IG 3-10: Aug @143 bps
350
2002
Yield Curve Spread
Basis Points
175
2000
300
10Y - 2Y: Aug @147 bps
150
150
250
250
125
125
200
200
100
100
150
150
75
75
100
100
50
50
50
50
25
25
0
0
Corporates: Aug @326 bps
100
1996
100
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
0
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
-50
1996
-50
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Source: Bloomberg LP, Federal Reserve Board, Freddie Mac, Wachovia Securities and Wachovia
Wachovia Economics Group
7
Global Growth & The Dollar
National Economic Overview
Global Growth Remains Steady But Weaker—The Dollar Is Poised For a Turnaround in the Second Half
Highlights



Real Global GDP Growth
Real Global GDP Growth
Year-over-Year Percent Change
7.5%
Global growth had its best four year run
since the 1970s, but we expect growth will
moderate abroad this year and next.
Weakness in Europe has become
apparent, notably in the U.K., which may
be slipping into its first recession in 18
years.
The dollar should grind higher against
most major currencies over the next year,
not-withstanding the recent strength in
high-yielding currencies.
7.5%
6.0%
Year-over-Year Percent Change, 1st Quarter 2008
12.0%
10.0%
10.0%
8.0%
8.0%
6.0%
6.0%
4.0%
4.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.0%
0.0%
0.0%
6.0%
Period Average
4.5%
4.5%
3.0%
3.0%
1.5%
0.0%
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
0.0%
China
2005
India
Wachovia Major Currency Forecast
Major Currencies
Euro ($/ €)
U.K. ($/ £)
U.K. (£/ €)
Japan (¥/ $)
Other Industrialized
Canada (C$/ US$)
Switzerland (CHF/ $)
Norway (NOK/ $)
Sweden (SEK/ $)
Australia (US$/ A$)
1
1.56
1.96
0.80
108
1.04
1.04
5.10
6.00
0.92
2009
Q4
Q1
1.54
1.94
0.79
110
1.06
1.06
5.20
6.10
0.90
1.50
1.90
0.79
114
1.10
1.08
5.30
6.20
0.88
Q2
1.45
1.85
0.78
116
1.14
1.12
5.40
6.40
0.84
2010
Q3
1.40
1.80
0.78
118
1.16
1.15
5.60
6.60
0.80
Brazil
UK
Japan
Major Curency Index, 1973 = 100
115.0
2008
Russia
Trade Weighted Dollar
(End of Quarter Rates)
Q3
12.0%
Q4
1.35
1.75
0.77
120
1.18
1.18
5.80
6.80
0.76
Q1
1.30
1.72
0.76
122
1.20
1.23
5.90
7.00
0.72
Q2
1.26
1.70
0.74
125
1.22
1.26
6.10
7.20
0.70
115.0
110.0
110.0
105.0
105.0
100.0
100.0
95.0
95.0
90.0
90.0
Forecast
85.0
85.0
80.0
80.0
75.0
75.0
70.0
70.0
Trade Weighted Dollar : Q2 @70.96
65.0
65.0
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Data as of: August 6, 2008
Source: Bloomberg LP, Federal Reserve Board, International Monetary Fund and Wachovia
Wachovia Economics Group
8
Residential Real Estate Summary
Wachovia Economics Group
9
Homebuilding
Residential Real Estate Summary
Five Years of Overbuilding Has Pushed Inventories of Unsold Homes up by Around 1.225M Units
Highlights
Housing Starts
Millions of Units
 We calculated that we need to build about 1.575 million homes a year to meet
2.2
underlying demographic demand.
 Just under 1.2 million for population growth and about 380K units for
obsolescence, and a few for second homes at this point.
 Home sales peaked more than two years ago and we believe we are two-thirds
of the way through this housing correction.
 New home sales will likely bottom in the second half of the year. Since the
demand for housing is derived from the underlying growth in the economy, the
economy will have to return before demand picks up in any meaningful way.
 Our estimated overbuild of 1.225M units compares favorably with the rise in the
number of vacant homes for sale or rent.
2.0
2.0
1.8
1.8
1.6
1.6
1.4
1.4
1.2
1.2
1.0
1.0
Single-Family Housing Starts
Housing Vacancies
Millions of Units
Millions of Units, Percentage of Owner Occupied Homes
2.0
1.8
2.0
Single family: Jul @0.64M
Linear Trend: Jul @1.49M
2.5
3.0%
0.8
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Millions of Units
4.5
4.0
4.5
New Homes: Jun @0.43M
Existing Homes: Jul @3.90M
4.0
2.5%
2.0
1.6
0.8
Single-Family Home Inventory
Vacant for Sale: Q2 @2.2M (Left Axis)
Vacancy Rate: Q2 @2.9% (Right Axis)
1.8
2.2
Dashed Line is Underlying Demographic Trend
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
1.6
2.0%
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.5%
1.2
1.2
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0%
0.5
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.6
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
0.5%
0.0
0.0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
0.0
1992
0.0
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Source: NAR, U.S. Department of Commerce and Wachovia
Wachovia Economics Group
10
Home Price Declines From Peak
Residential Real Estate Summary
Very Few Markets Are Immune to the Housing Downturn, But the Worst Problems are Concentrated
OFHEO Home Price Index
OFHEO: Q2-2008
Percent Change from Peak Value
No Change
-1 .0 % t o 0.0 %
-4 .0 % t o -1 .0 %
-4 0.6 % t o -4 .0 %
Source: OFHEO and Wachovia Corp.
Wachovia Economics Group
11
Investor & Second-Home Mortgages
Residential Real Estate Summary
Investors Were Responsible for More Than Half of the Purchases in Some Markets in 2006
Non-Owner Occupied Purchase Loans: 2006
Non-Owner Occupied Purchase Loans
Percent of Total Value of Purchase Loans
Greater than 25%
15.0% to 25.0%
10.0% to 15.0%
7.5% to 10.0%
Less than 7.5%
Source: HMDA and Wachovia
Wachovia Economics Group
12
Home Prices Outlook
Residential Real Estate Summary
How Far Will Housing Prices Fall and When Will They Bottom-Out?
Highlights
Home Prices
S&P Case-Shiller Home Prices
Year-over-Year Percentage Change
 Our best estimates lead us to
believe the S&P/Case-Shiller 10city composite index will fall 28.6
percent on a peak-to-trough basis.
 We estimate that the OFHEO
Purchase Only index will decline
around 22 percent.
 Our forecast for the NAR Median
Price series calls for a peak-totrough drop of around 17 percent.
24%
24%
20%
20%
16%
16%
12%
12%
8%
8%
4%
4%
0%
0%
-4%
-4%
-8%
-8%
Median Sale Price: Jul @$210,900
Median Sales Price 3-Month Mov. Avg.: Jul @-7.2 %
OFHEO Purchase Only Index: Jun @-4.8 %
S&P Case-Shiller Composite 10: Jun @-17.0 %
-12%
-16%
-12%
Percent Decline From Local Market Peak
Charlotte
Dallas
Denver
Portland
Seattle
Atlanta
New York
Chicago
Boston
Cleveland
Minneapolis
Washington
Tampa
San
Detroit
Los Angeles
San Diego
Miami
Los Vegas
Phoenix
-16%
-20%
99
01
03
05
07
Peak-to-Current
Percent Change
Per Capita Income
Projected
Decline
Trough
17.3%
21.4%
26.5%
26.8%
27.1%
28.5%
29.9%
32.4%
32.5%
32.6%
20.3%
18.8%
0%
Home Price Decline Projections
Home Price to
6.2%
6.2%
7.3%
8.3%
10.0%
10.9%
11.0%
11.2%
C-10
C-20
-20%
97
1.6%
3.2%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Median Home Price Relative to Owner's Rent
Home Price to
Owners' Equivalent Rent
Projected
Decline
Trough
NAR Median Sale Price
-11.2%
-17.2% Q2 - 2009
-20.3% Q4 - 2009
OFEHO All-Transactions
OFEHO Purchase-Only
-0.3%
-3.6%
-3.7% Q4 - 2011
-12.7% Q3 - 2009
-20.1% Q4 - 2011
-21.2% Q3 - 2010
S&P/ Case Shiller National HPI
S&P/ Case Shiller 10-City Comp.
S&P/ Case Shiller 20-City Comp.
-16.2%
-19.0%
-17.5%
-28.3% Q3 - 2009
-36.0% Q2 - 2009
-35.1% Q2 - 2009
-31.9% Q1 - 2010
-42.2% Q1 - 2010
-39.7% Q1 - 2010
All-in Average
-11.3%
-22.2%
-29.2%
Index 1983=100, Seasonally Adjusted
1.5
1.5
Median Home Sales "P/ E Ratio": May @1.2
Average 1983-1998 = 1
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.9
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
Source: Bloomberg LP, Federal Reserve Board, International Monetary Fund and Wachovia
Wachovia Economics Group
13
The Carolinas
Wachovia Economics Group
14
North Carolina
The Carolinas
Unemployment and Housing Cool the Economy
Highlights
 North Carolina’s unemployment rate




North Carolina MSA Unemployment Rate
8%
Seasonally Adjusted
North Carolina Housing Permits
8%
120
Thousands of Permits, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
120
Single-Family: Jun @45,120
Single-Family, 12-Month Moving Avg.: Jun @52,369
Multi-Family, 12-Month Moving Avg.: Jun @15,108
7%
7%
100
has spiked significantly higher in
recent months and now stands
6%
6%
80
almost a point higher than the
5%
5%
60
national rate. Most of the recent rise
has come from labor force growth,
4%
4%
40
not layoffs.
3%
3%
20
Unemployment Rate: Jul @6.6%
Industrial development remains
12-Month Moving Average: Jul @5.2%
2%
2%
0
stable in most major metropolitan
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
areas, particularly in technology and
energy related ventures.
North Carolina has seen record
North Carolina Population Growth
population gains with the Charlotte
North Carolina Home Prices
In Thousands
OFHEO Home Price Index
225
225
12%
and Raleigh-Durham regions leading
Quarterly Change, Annual Rate: Q1 @3.4%
200
200
Year-over-Year Percent Change: Q1 @4.0%
the way.
10%
175
175
With the exception of some coastal
8%
150
150
areas, the state did not experience
6%
125
125
the same rapid price appreciation
100
100
4%
during the housing boom as was
75
75
2%
seen in other parts of the country.
50
50
Still, home price increases have
0%
25
25
declined and we expect a flattening
0
0
-2%
80
83
86
89
92
95
98
01
04
07
going forward.
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
New single-family activity has
declined considerably from cycle
highs as national builders have
Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of Labor and Wachovia
scaled back to bolster their balance
sheets and reduce inventories.
100
80
60
40
20
0
06
08
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
06
Wachovia Economics Group
08
15
Charlotte-Residential
The Carolinas
Charlotte Saw Record Employment & Population Gains this Past Year, Despite the Credit Crunch
Highlights







Charlotte MSA Unemployment Rate
Charlotte has seen strong job growth
across a broad assortment of industries,
including the higher paying investment
banking, legal services, engineering and
corporate headquarters fields.
Strong job growth has encourage a wave
of in-migration from young, collegeeducated professionals.
Population growth in 2007 totaled 68,000
in the MSA and close to 80,000 in the
broader CMSA, which includes emerging
suburbs and employment markets in
Mooresville, Denver, and Lancaster
County.
The unemployment rate has risen recently,
probably reflecting a slight increase in
layoffs, reduced hiring and continued
strong labor force growth.
Charlotte’s housing market saw strong
growth but was not a bubble market.
Nevertheless, excesses occurred at both
the lower and upper ends of the market.
Single-family construction has pulled back
more than 60 percent from its peak,
reflecting pull backs by national builders
and the effects of tighter credit.
Home price growth slowed late last year
and we expect prices changes will be
roughly flat in 2008.
Charlotte MSA Housing Permits
Seasonally Adjusted
8%
8%
Thousands of Permits, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
25
7%
7%
6%
6%
5%
5%
4%
4%
3%
3%
2%
2%
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
90
92
Charlotte MSA Population Growth
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
Charlotte MSA Home Prices
In Thousands
80
25
Single-Family: Jun @7,200
Single-Family, 12-Month Mov. Avg.: Jun @10,617
Multi-Family, 12-Month Mov. Avg.: Jun @5,499
Unemployment Rate: Jun @6.0%
12-Month Moving Average: Jun @5.1%
04
06
OFHEO Home Price Index
15%
15%
10%
10%
5%
5%
0%
0%
Quarterly Change, Annual Rate: Q1 @5.0%
Year-over-Year Percent Change: Q1 @6.2%
-5%
-5%
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
Source: OFHEO, U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of Labor and Wachovia
Wachovia Economics Group
16
Charlotte-Commercial
The Carolinas
Strong Job Growth in Professional Services Has Kept Office Vacancy Rates Extremely Low
Highlights






Charlotte added 35,000 net new jobs in
2007 but will add less than half that in
2008.
Downtown Charlotte has one of the lowest
office vacancy rates ever recorded in
North America. Current construction
should keep the market well supplied,
however, and we expect few new projects
to be added.
Suburban office markets continue to enjoy
strong demand but are seeing little to no
new construction. The northeast market,
which includes the University Area and
Concord, stands to benefit from the
opening of the new biotech park in
Kannapolis.
Charlotte’s industrial market has seen
strong gains in recent years but will likely
slow somewhat in 2008 as companies
work to reduce inventories and logistics
costs. Growth is shifting to the south along
I-77 in York County and I-85 around the
airport.
The biggest opportunities in Charlotte are
the continued expansion of the airport, with
a third parallel runway nearing completion
and plans in place for a new international
concourse, and new parking facilities. In
addition, the North Carolina Research
Park, which opened in March, and the
continued growth of NASCAR, will add to
growth.
The biggest threat to Charlotte is the
unfolding credit crunch, which is leading to
cutbacks in financial and legal services.
Charlotte MSA Nonfarm Employment
Charlotte MSA Office Vacancies
3-Month Moving Averages
10%
10%
8%
8%
6%
6%
4%
4%
2%
2%
0%
0%
-2%
-2%
-4%
-4%
Percent Vacant
30%
25%
3-Month Annual Rate: Jul @4.2%
Year-over-Year Percent Change: Jul @2.2%
Household: Year-over-Year Percent Change: Jun @0.1%
-6%
-8%
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
25%
20%
20%
15%
15%
10%
10%
5%
5%
-6%
-8%
90
30%
Metropolitan Office Vacancy Rate: Q2 @12.1%
Downtown Office Vacancy Rate: Q2 @1.1%
Suburban Office Vacancy Rate: Q2 @18.7%
06
0%
08
0%
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
Charlotte MSA Industrial Vacancies
Percent Vacant
20%
20%
Industrial Vacancy Rate: Q2 @9.9%
16%
16%
12%
12%
8%
8%
4%
4%
0%
0%
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
Source: CB Richard Ellis, Colliers, Cushman & Wakefield, U.S. Department of Labor and Wachovia
Wachovia Economics Group
17
Charlotte CMSA
The Carolinas
Charlotte CMSA Population Growth
Charlotte CMSA Employment Growth
Thousands of Persons
90
Greater Charlotte: 2007 @11.9
Charlotte MSA: 2007 @66.7
Charlotte CMSA: 2007 @78.6
80
80
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
0
Outlying areas add
significantly to
Charlotte’s growth
50
70
10
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
Annual Growth, Thousands of Jobs
90
-10
10
-20
0
-30
06
-10
Charlotte CMSA: 2007 @33.2
Greater Charlotte: 2007 @1.7
Charlotte MSA: 2007 @31.5
8%
6%
4%
4%
2%
2%
0%
0%
-2%
-2%
-4%
-4%
-6%
-6%
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Charlotte CMSA Unemployment Rate
Year-over-Year Percent Change
6%
1991
-20
-30
1992
Charlotte CMSA Job Growth
8%
50
2005
2007
Percent of Labor Force
8.0%
8.0%
7.0%
7.0%
6.0%
6.0%
5.0%
5.0%
4.0%
4.0%
3.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1990
2.0%
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of Labor and Wachovia
Wachovia Economics Group
18
York County
The Carolinas
York County, SC Housing Permits
York County, SC Unemployment Rate
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
3000
3000
2500
Seasonally Adjusted
8%
8%
7%
7%
6%
6%
5%
5%
4%
4%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2500
2000
2000
1500
1500
1000
1000
1%
500
500
95
97
99
01
03
05
1%
Unemployment Rate: Jul @6.5%
12-Month Moving Average: Jul @5.9%
Single-Family: Jul @2,225
0%
07
0%
90
92
York County, SC Employment
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
York County, SC Population Growth
Year-over-Year Percent Change, Seasonally Adjusted
Thousands of Persons
8%
8%
12
6%
6%
10
10
4%
4%
8
8
2%
2%
6
6
0%
0%
4
4
-2%
-2%
2
2
-4%
-4%
12-Month Moving Average: Dec @3.2%
3-Month Moving Average: Dec @2.0%
-6%
-6%
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
12
0
0
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of Labor and Wachovia
Wachovia Economics Group
19
Chester County
The Carolinas
Chester County, SC Housing Permits
Chester County, SC Unemployment Rate
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
500
500
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
Seasonally Adjusted
18%
15%
15%
12%
12%
9%
9%
6%
6%
3%
3%
Unemployment Rate: Jul @11.5%
12-Month Moving Average: Jul @11.4%
Single-Family: Jul @218
0
0
95
97
99
01
03
05
0%
07
0%
90
92
Chester County, SC Employment
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
Chester County, SC Population Growth
Year-over-Year Percent Change, Seasonally Adjusted
10%
18%
Persons
10%
750
5%
5%
500
500
0%
0%
250
250
-5%
-5%
0
-10%
-10%
-250
-15%
-500
750
0
-250
12-Month Moving Average: Dec @-11.9%
3-Month Moving Average: Dec @-14.3%
-15%
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
-500
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of Labor and Wachovia
Wachovia Economics Group
20
Lancaster County
The Carolinas
Lancaster County, SC Housing Permits
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
500
Lancaster County, SC Unemployment Rate
500
400
Seasonally Adjusted
12%
12%
10%
10%
8%
8%
6%
6%
4%
4%
400
300
300
200
200
2%
2%
Unemployment Rate: Jul @10.4%
12-Month Moving Average: Jul @10.3%
Single-Family: Jul @218
100
100
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
0%
0%
90
Lancaster County, SC Employment
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
Lancaster County, SC Population Growth
Year-over-Year Percent Change, Seasonally Adjusted
6%
6%
4%
4%
2%
2%
0%
0%
-2%
-2%
-4%
-4%
-6%
-6%
Persons
2000
2000
1500
1500
1000
1000
500
500
0
-8%
-10%
-10%
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
0
-8%
12-Month Moving Average: Dec @-6.7%
Year-Over-Year Percent Change: Dec @-8.5%
04
06
-500
-500
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Department of Labor and Wachovia
Wachovia Economics Group
21
Appendix
Wachovia Economics Group
22
Economics Group Publications
Appendix
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Recent Special Commentary
Date
August-29
August-28
August-19
August-19
August-15
August-14
August-07
Title
California is Still Managing to Eke Out Modest Gains
Housing Chartbook - August 2008
“ Older and More Diverse Nation by Midcentury”
Commercial Real Estate Quarterly: Second Quarter
Consumers Feeling A Little Blue This Year
The Outlook for U.S. Export Growth Revisited
Global Chartbook - August 2008
Authors
Vitner & York
Vitner & York
Vitner & York
Vitner & Khan
Vitner & York
Bryson
Bryson
July-31
July-24
July-14
July-13
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July-02
Florida’ s Economy Sinks To Unfamiliar Territory
By Land and Sea: Autos, Boats, and RV Chartbook
How Far Will Housing Prices Fall
Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac Developments
Global Chartbook - July 2008
No Bright Light Marking the End of Sub-Par Growth in the U.S.
Vitner & York
Vitner & Khan
Vitner & York
Vitner
Bryson
Silvia
June-26
June-24
June-12
June-12
June-12
June-04
Surging Gas Prices Are Putting the Brakes on Auto Sales
Despite Challenges, Charlotte Still Finds a Way to Grow
Discretionary Spending Share Held Near All-Time Low
Housing Chartbook - June 2008
Global Chartbook - June 2008
Commercial Real Estate Chartbook
Vitner &
Vitner
Vitner &
Vitner &
Bryson
Vitner &
May-29
May-21
May-07
May-02
May-01
Some Thoughts on Oil Prices and Global Inflation
Credit Shocks: Follow-up to the NABE Conference Call
Global Chartbook - May 2007
Commodity Prices in Historical Perspective
The Shrinking Discretionary Dollar
Bryson
Silvia
Bryson
Bryson
Vitner & York
April-29
April-25
April-16
A Modern Policy for a Dynamic Labor Market
Recent Trends in U.S. Exports
Does Chinese Inflation Mean Higher U.S. Inflation?
Silvia
Bryson
Bryson
Khan
York
York
Khan
Wachovia Economics Group
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Economy
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Economics Group



Appendix
John E. Silvia, Ph.D.
Mark Vitner
Jay H. Bryson, Ph.D.
Chief Economist
Senior Economist
Global Economist
[email protected]
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