Transcript The “sense” or “nonsense” of biofuels

Will new biofuels provide the
solution?
New biofuels the solution?
Original three motivators for biofuels
 End of Oil Reserves (but biofuels poor substitute)
 Security of Supply (but biofuels poor solution)
 Climate change (but biofuels poor palliative)
New biofuels the solution?
End of Oil Reserves
 In 2007 greater reserves than in 1965
 40 + 60 + 100 yrs → “Yamani was right”
 The peak oil theory
 between 2021 and 2112
 more probable between 2030 and 2075
In fact 40 = “infinity”
 End of “cheap–oil” era
 EU need to be in control
New biofuels the solution?
Security of supply
By 2020 EU 70 % dependent on imports
But :
Increase in IEA ESIvol
Biofuels > 4,2 % need to be imported
No link dependency and economic growth
New biofuels the solution?
3rd main argument for biofuels: climate
 Biofuels ineffective solution
 Climate debate provides
 Emotional context
 Political reality
 Business opportunity !!
 First two other arguments
New biofuels the solution?
Two subsidiary arguments
 “Transport sector has to do its share”
 “It is good for Agricultural employment”
Not very convincing but we are stuck with it!
 2% increasing to 5,75%
 Ambition 10% in 2020
 Biofuels maintain inefficiencies of current
transport system
New biofuels the solution?
Climate
Combustion of biomass = 5 * more efficient
Rapeseed oil, palm oil and sugar only lead to
marginal CO2 reduction because the rest of the
plant is burned to make electricity
From climate viewpoint Biofuels only marginal
help
Destruction of Rainforest is deathblow to climate
(James Lovelock)
New biofuels the solution?
Political reality, yet serious concerns
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Moral
Climate
Environment
Biodiversity
Logistics
Product quality
Economy
Lisbon accord
New biofuels the solution?
Morality of biofuels
18 million people die each year from malnutrition
Food requirements increase by 50 % till 2020
Biofuel demand increases food prices
 Is turning food into fuel a moral proposition’?
 Is “our” car more important than “their” food ?
New biofuels the solution?
Source: IHT 11-04-2008
New biofuels the solution?
Environment
Rapeseed cultivation  100% increase acidification
(Senter Novem)
Biofuel cultivation leads to
 Deforestation
 Higher emissions of greenhouse gases
 Soil dehydration
(CE report)
Cultivation of biomass inevitably leads to
destruction of natural habitat (Greenpeace)
Rainforests are the lungs of the planet (Lovelock)
New biofuels the solution?
The logistical quandary
Bio ethanol only adds to the Gasoline surplus in EU25;
Security of Supply is better achieved by producing bio-diesel (substitute current
diesel imports)
Conventional B.Br. from EU sources cannot
reach the 5,75 % target
Conventional biofuels EU production
% of 2015 EU road fuel demand
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
Target
Shortfall
6.0%
Capability
4.0%
2.0%
A modest increase in production
capability is possible through
general agricultural yield improvement
0.0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Based on WtW
New biofuels the solution?
Product Quality
 EtOH in gasoline
 Vapour pressure
 Water solubility
 Sensitivity of some plastic couplings
 Blend characteristics
 Hence potential preference for ETBE
 FAME
 “strange components” (Cl, P)
 Lack of thermal and oxidation stability
 Dilution of Lubricating oil
 Hence limitation to 5 % for time being
New biofuels the solution?
Economy
First generation Biofuels heavily uncompetitive
hence subsidised
Is there still a learning curve ?
Does first generation open the way for the
second generation??
Can subsidies be stopped ?
New biofuels the solution?
Squaring the circle
New biofuels the solution?
Sustainability criteria
 3 “hard” criteria
 Reduction of GHG emissions
 No damage to environment
 No destruction of biodiversity
 3 “soft” criteria
 No competition with food chain
 Increase in welfare (GDP)
 No decrease in well being (Labour
conditions)
New biofuels the solution?
 Who will make them?
 How to stimulate R. & D. ?
 Will there be enough ?
 Is this the best use of biomass ?
New biofuels the solution?
New biofuels
 New technologies should lead to “learning curve”
 Lignocellulose fermentation (but logistical problem
remains)
 Biomass Hydrogenation
 Biomass intake into refineries
 Biomass gasification
 Algae
Full scale development requires another 10
years
“Sense” of Second Generation
All biofuels EU production
Approximately additional 10%
of EU 2020 cereal capacity
Shortfall
Capability
% of 2015 EU road fuel demand
Discounted annual cost
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
Conventional reach
full potential
2nd generation
reach full potential
10.0
8.0
Target
6.0
2nd generation
start
4.0
4.0%
2.0%
2006 NPV of substitution
cost 2008-2020
in the order of 40 GEUR
2.0
0.0%
0.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Based on WtW
GEUR/a
12.0%
Conclusion
 Current biofuels make no sense
 But for time being are here to stay !

New generation might make sense
 In line with Lisbon
 Meet “sustainability” criteria
 Reduce NOx and Pm emissions
 No product quality problems
 Reduce EU logistical imbalance
 BUT
 Better things to do with Biomass
 More innovative solutions to reduce Transport CO2
 Will it be cost competitive?