Transcript PRESENTACION CHINA

China, Asia and Latin America: Setting the
Agenda
Osvaldo Rosales
Director
International Trade and Integration Division
ECLAC
ILAS-SWUST
Mianyang, May 9th , 2012
I. China in the World Economy:
Past, present and future.
Chinese Median Income Relative to Europe
1400
116,3
Year
1820
48,3
1950
9,3
1975
7,5
2000
20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
China in 2010
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
2nd largest economy in the world (7th in 2000)
1st in export of goods worldwide
5th in export of services worldwide
1st in automotive market
1st in renewable energy market
1st producer of steel and ships
1st in world savings
2nd in scientific publications
Future Structure of world’s GDP
(2004-2050)
(As a percentage of world GDP)
100%
90%
28
27
26
80%
70%
25
60%
50%
34
15
United States
4
European Union
Japan
7
40%
28
China
30%
12
15
India
20%
4
2
5
Other countries
10%
20
21
17
10
0%
2004
2025
2050
II. The impact of Chinese dynamism in
the World Economy
The impact upon the world economy from China’s growth
• The center of gravity of the world economy is shifting
towards emerging economies
– BRICS, G20
• China is the new global driver of the world’s growth
– The income gap is narrowing: In the 90s, 12 countries of low- and mediumincome doubled the average growth of the OECD; In the 2000s, 65 countries
did the same.
• Reinforces South-South linkages
– Sample of 20 developing countries…µY,G7=0.267; µY,China=0.37
– Relevance of South-South trade
• Engine to reduce poverty
– Extreme poverty in the world falls from 41% in 1990 to 35% in 1996 to 26% in 2005
• Adverse implications for income distribution
– Level of real wages for low-income workers drops 15%
China and India account for more than 1/3 of the world’s GDP
growth during this decade and more than 2/3 growth during the
global crisis.
8
100
India
90
China
7
World annual growth (right)
6
80
70
5
15.578
60
4
50
3
10.054
40
6.260
30
20
10
0
4.264
12.449
27.614
2000
2001
5.897
25.347
7.320
6.416
23.680
18.401
21.858
8.227
8.443
8.586
61.568
36.245
27.044
22.867
11.311
10.639
27.920
31.111
2
1
0
-1
-2
2002
2003
2000
2004
2001
2005
2002
2006
2003
2007
2004
2008
2005
2009
2006
2007
2010
2011
2008
2009
20002009
United States
20.3
11.1
14.5
15.8
16.4
15.3
11.5
8.8
3.0
-20.7
9.6
European Union
20.6
22.7
11.9
10.4
12.9
11.2
15.4
13.3
6.9
-33.5
9.2
Japan
4.5
0.6
0.7
2.8
3.9
3.0
2.7
3.0
-2.5
-13.0
0.6
Latin America and the
Caribbean
7.6
2.6
1.6
5.1
10.3
8.9
9.3
9.6
12.1
-7.2
6.0
12.4
4.3
27.6
6.3
25.3
5.9
23.7
7.3
18.4
6.4
21.9
8.6
22.9
8.4
27.0
8.2
36.2
10.1
61.6
15.6
27.7
8.1
Rest of Developing Asia
9.4
11.8
13.3
14.6
12.3
14.9
14.0
14.1
17.2
20.2
14.2
GDP annual growth
4.8
2.3
2.9
3.6
4.9
4.5
5.1
5.2
3.0
-0.6
3.6
China
India
China’s challenges in the global economy
• China is a key player in global macroeconomic stability
and in global governance.
– Explains the 2003-2007 cycle and the current two-speed rate of recovery
– China’s contribution to global growth increases from 5% in 1980 to 12% in 2000 to
30% in 2010
– It’s weight in the global economy (PPP) increases from 2% in 1980, 3% in 1990 and 7%
in 2000
• 14% in 2010 compared to 18% in the US
• 19% In 2017 compared to 18% in the US
• China vs. Prebisch: long-term deterioration of terms of
trade
• Prebisch vs. China: central-peripheral
South-South trade has become more significant
within world trade in the wake of the crisis
and could exceed North-North trade by 2017
The South has driven much of the upturn
in international trade
GROWTH IN WORLD
TRADE AND
CONTRIBUTION OF
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES,
2003-2010
(Percentages)
WORLD: DISTRIBUTION OF
EXPORTS,
1985 AND 2010
(Percentages of world trade)
1985
Source: ECLAC, on the basis of data
from CPB Netherlands Bureau for
Economic Policy Analysis.
EXPORTS BY REGION, 1985-2020
(Percentages of the total)
2010 a
S-S
From 6% to 24%
N-N : From 63% to 38%
Source: ECLAC, on the basis of official figures
Nota Figures for 2011-2020 are projections on the basis of the
long-term linear trend.
Source: ECLAC, on the basis of United
Nations Commodity Trade Database
(COMTRADE).
a Estimate on the basis of 90% of world
exports.
10
In 2010, developing countries received 50%
of global FDI flows
FDI FLOWS BY RECIPIENT REGION, 1990-2010
(Billions of dollars and percentages of the total)
Source: ECLAC, on the basis of figures from World Investment Report 2011 (UNCTAD).
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The crisis hastened the reduction of the per capita income gap
between the developing countries and the advanced economies
WORLD: PER CAPITA INCOME GAP, 1980-2016
(Index of difference in per capita GDP with respect to the developed economies,
in logarithms and 1980=100)
Source: ECLAC, on the basis of IMF (2011), “World Economic Outlook Database,” and World Economic and Financial Surveys.
Note: the lines correspond the evolution of the gap. A positive trend denotes a widening of the gap, while a negative trend denotes a narrowing of the gap
(convergence).
12
En 2030, 2/3 of the world middle- class will be in East Asia.
This region will explain 60% of the world consumption
expenditure
POBLACIÓN Y GASTOS DE CONSUMO DE LA CLASE MEDIA,
POR REGIONES, 2009, 2020 Y 2030 a
Población
Gastos de consumo b
(En porcentajes del total mundial)
(En porcentajes del total mundial)
100%
100%
90%
90%
América del Norte
80%
70%
Europa
60%
80%
70%
60%
Africa sub-sahara
50%
Oriente Medio y
Africa del Norte
40%
30%
50%
40%
30%
América Latina y el
Caribe
20%
20%
Asia y Oceania
10%
0%
10%
0%
2009
2020*
2030*
2009
2020*
Fuente: CEPAL, sobre la base de Homi Kharas, “The Emerging Middle Class in Developing Countries”, enero de 2010.
a Las cifras de 2020 y 2030 son proyecciones.
b Los gastos de consumo se calcularon sobre la base de la paridad del poder adquisitivo (PPA).
2030*
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Developing Asia and Latin America and the
Caribbean will be leading world growth
Contribution to World Economic Growth by Region,
2011-2021 (In percentages)
BBVA. “Economic Outlook, Eagles”, Annual Report 2012, Economic Analysis
III. Trade and investment relationships
between China and Latin America
China has become a very important trading partner for some countries in
LAC particularly with respect to imports.
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: ASIA-PACIFIC AND CHINA’S PARTICIPATION IN TRADE, 2010
(In percentages of total imports and exports of each country)
A. Exports
B. Imports
Cuba
Chile
Peru
Brazil
Lat. Am. & Caribbean
Argentina
Venezuela, Bol. Rep. of
Uruguay
Panama
Colombia
Costa Rica
Bolivia, Plur. St. of
Dominican Republic
Honduras
Ecuador
Guyana
Dominica
Barbados
Haiti
Suriname
Paraguay
Trinidad and Tobago
Mexico
Guatemala
Jamaica
Saint Kitts & Nevis
Saint Lucia
El Salvador
Belize
St. Vincent and the Grenadines
Grenada
Bahamas
Nicaragua
9.1
China
0
10
20
30
Others Asia /a
40
50
Paraguay
Peru
Chile
Brazil
Argentina
Colombia
St. Vincent & the Grenadines
Uruguay
Cuba
Lat. Am. & Caribbean
Dominican Republic
Venezuela, Bol. Rep. of
Bolivia, Plur. St. of
Suriname
Ecuador
Dominica
Haiti
Guyana
Mexico
Guatemala
Costa Rica
Panama
El Salvador
Belize
Jamaica
Bahamas
Barbados
Trinidad and Tobago
Honduras
Grenada
Saint Kitts & Nevis
Saint Lucia
Nicaragua
60
Source: ECLAC based on data from COMTRADE
13.0
China
Others Asia /a
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
In eight short years, China’s importance as a trading partner for
Latin America has increased significantly.
Destination of Exports
Source of Imports
2000
2008
2000
2008
Argentina
6
2
4
3
Brazil
12
1
11
2
Chile
5
1
4
2
Colombia
35
4
15
2
Peru
4
2
13
2
Venezuela
37
3
18
3
Costa Rica
26
2
16
3
Mexico
25
5
6
3
Cuba
5
2
5
2
China has a presence in 21 Latin American nations
• Top 5 in 10 countries
• Top 1-2- in 6 countries
… in almost 32 markets
• Top 5 in 23 countries
• Top 2 in 5 countries
China is displacing EU as the second largest trading partner of LAC
LAC (16 countries): Share of the main destinations in
total exports, 2000-2020 (In %)
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean
(ECLAC), based on data from the COMTRADE database and national
sources.
Notes: The 16 countries are: Argentina, Bolivia (Plurinational State of),
Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala,
Honduras, Mexico, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, Venezuela (Bolivarian
Republic of). Estimates and projections based on GDP growth rates for the
years 2000-2009 in the United States, European Union, China, Latin America
and the Caribbean, Asia-Pacific, and the Rest of World. A growth rate of
trade which converges to the economies' long-term growth rate is expected.
LAC (16 countries): Share of the Main Sources of
Total Imports, 2000-2020. (In %)
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean
(ECLAC), based on data from the COMTRADE database and national
sources.
Notes: the 16 countries are: Argentina, Bolivia (Plurinational State of), Brazil,
Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras,
Mexico, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of).
Estimates and projections based on GDP growth rates for the years 2000-2009 in
the United States, European Union, China, Latin America and the Caribbean,
Asia-Pacific, and Rest of World. It is expected a growth rate of trade which
converges to the economies' long-term growth rate.
Recent features of trade between China
and Latin America
• Trade is concentrated in few countries and few
products
– Brazil, Chile and Argentina account for 77% of
exports
– Copper (30%) and Soy (12%)
• In each country, few products (2-3) make up 8090% of exports to China (with the exception of
Brazil and Mexico)
• They are basic products that are not
technologically intensive or knowledge-based
(with the exception of Mexico and Costa Rica)
A. Latin America: Main Exports to China
(% of total exports to China)
Countries
Main products SITC Rev. 2-4 digits
(Share greater than 5%)
Argentina Soybeans (47.6%), Soy oil (30.9%), Petroleum (5.6%)
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile
Peru
Tin concentrate (88.4%)
Iron concentrate (26.6%), Soybeans (24%), Iron ore
agglomerates (6.4%), Soy oil (6.2%)
Copper (54.2%), Copper concentrate (24%), Wood pulp
(9.3%)
Fish flour not for human consumption (32.9%), Copper
(26%), Iron concentrate (9.8%), Iron alloys (7.0%), Copper
alloys (5.1%)
Costa Rica Electronic micro assemblies (92.4%)
Electronic accessories (15.1%), Microcircuits (15.3%),
Cooper concentrate (6.2%), Iron Pic (5.8%), Other nonMexico
ferrous waste and scrap (5.4%)
Raw Sugar cane (46.6%), Other non-ferrous waste and
Guatemala scrap (36.2%), Refined sugar (6.5%)
Cuba
Sugar cane (85.5%), Copper (13.5%)
No. of Products % of Total
3
84.10%
1
88.40%
3
56.80%
3
85.20%
5
79.90%
1
92.40%
5
47.80%
3
89.30%
2
99.00%
Latin America and the Caribbean’s exports to the United States present a
larger share of manufactures than the region’s exports to the European
Union and China
Latin America and the Caribbean: breakdown of exports to selected partners by technological intensity, 1980-2009
(Percentages of total exports)
A. Latin America and the Caribbean (intraregional trade)
H. T. M.
M. T. M.
L. T. M.
N. R. B. M.
P . P.
B. United States
H .T. M.
M. T. M.
L. T. M.
N. R. B. M.
P. P.
D. China
H. T. M.
M. T. M.
L. T. M.
N. R. B. M.
P . P.
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
H. T. M.
M. T. M.
L. T. M.
N. R. B. M.
P . P.
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
C. European Union
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) on the basis of COMTRADE database.
Technological intensity of Latin American and Caribbean exports
US
EU
AP
Primary
products
NRBM
26%
46%
59%
12%
29%
24%
LTM
11%
5%
3%
MTM
30%
15%
9%
HTM
19%
4%
5%
Higher quality of
exports directed to
US markets
Recent features of trade between LAC-AP
• Trade ties with China and Asia-Pacific are different among
the regions.
– In South America they are of a complementary nature
and South America has a slight surplus.
– Competition and deficits in Mexico and Central America
• High asymmetries between elevated trade flows and low
reciprocal investment
• Trade with China is excessively of an inter-industrial
nature.
– Lat. Am. exports raw materials and imports
manufactures.
– Less room for diversifying exports
– Productive and technological alliances are more difficult.
Exports, imports and trade balance with China
(In millions of dollars)
Trade pattern of LAC with China is
different among South America and
Mexico and Central America
Source: ECLAC on the basis of
COMTRADE data, official data and
DOTs (IMF).
China is one of the main recipients of FDI and has also begun investing abroad. Latin
America has become an important destination but China invests primarily in fiscal
paradises.
Chinese FDI abroad, outward 2003-2007
100%
Main destinations in Latin America and the Caribbean
90%
North America
80%
70%
Europe
60%
50%
Africa
40%
Latin America &
Caribbean
30%
20%
Asia-Pacífic
10%
0%
2003
2004
2005
2006
Chinese FDI abroad, stock 2007
Latin
America
and the
Caribbean
21.0%
Europe
3.8%
Africa
3.8%
North
America
2.7%
AsiaPacífic
68.7%
2007
stock 2007
Country
Cayman Islands
British Virgin Islands
Brazil
Argentina
Mexico
Venezuela (Bol. Rep. of)
Peru
Bermuda
Guyana
Cuba
Suriname
Chile
Bahamas
Panama
Ecuador
Bolivia
St Vincent & the Grenadines
Colombia
Uruguay
Honduras
Others
Value
16,810.7
6,626.5
185.6
157.2
151.4
143.9
137.1
105.8
68.6
66.5
65.3
56.8
56.5
55.3
49.2
23.0
20.8
6.8
2.1
0.9
16.7
%
67.8
26.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
Source: Ministry of Commerce of People’s Republic of China, 2007 Statistical
Bulletin of China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment
Main Issues
• China is more important for South America’s growth
than the United States.
• Positive cycle for international prices for commodities
for the remainder of the decade (relevant for South America)
– Possibility of a “super cycle”
– Risk: excessive support for commodities with low value
added, exchange rate appreciation, obstacles for export
diversification and productive transformation
– Challenge: Take advantage of the opportunities
• “Dutch Disease?” The curse of natural resources?
• New central-peripheral cycle in the XXI century?
Improving relationships between China and Latin America:
challenges for L. America
• Privilege multinational approaches. Less emphasis to
unilateral approaching initiatives to China and Asia
Pacific
– Scale matters: more coverage initiatives capable of attracting
resources in larger
– Larger scale of initiatives
• Coordinate efforts between LatAm countries
• Define regional priorities in an agreed agenda
–
–
–
–
Export diversification
Attracting Chinese FDI: investing in Asian value-chains
Business and technology Sino-Lat Am alliances
Advancing on trade and investment operations in renminbi
Improving relationships between China and Latin America:
challenges for China
• Increase and diversify its FDI in Lat Am
• Understand the political and institutional features of
Lat Am
– Separation of powers; legislation on visas; labor and
environment legislation; role of civil society
• Funds to support export diversification of Lat AM SMEs
–
–
–
–
–
Traceability in natural resources exports
Quality certification
Technical standards
Reducing carbon footprint in exports
Joint promotion in China
Joint challenges for China and Lat Am
• Increase levels of bilateral trade and investment
–
–
–
–
Improve dialogue on trade remedies.
Transparency on SPS issues and health protocols
NTB in line with WTO provisions
Mechanisms for consultation, negotiation, mediation and
arbitration to resolve commercial disputes
• Cooperation on the global agenda
– Reform the international monetary system and international
financial regulation
– Climate change
– Early warning and policy coordination against threats of
international economic crisis
– South-South cooperation mechanisms in preventing financial
impacts, preventing contagion and preserving trade flows.
Challenges and Proposals
1. Diversify Lat Am exports destined for China
and Asia-Pacific
2.Tie the approach towards Asia-Pacific with a
domestic agenda of innovation and
competitiveness
3.Take advantage of a favorable cycle in
natural resources to invest in infrastructure,
training, innovation and reforms that will
stimulate productivity and the business
environment
Challenges and Proposals
4. Presence in the supply value chains linked to
exporting natural resources to Asia-Pacific
(knowledge intensive segments)
5. Latin American investment in China and more
Chinese investment in Latin America
(manufactures and infrastructure)
1. Telecommunications (Huawei, ZTE)
2. Automotive(BYD, Chery, Geely)
6. Overcome transportation and economic costs,
long delivery times, infrastructure and logistic,
air travel connections.
Challenges and Proposals
7. Mutually agreed upon agendas at the regional (or subregional) level to address China and Asia-Pacific
– Agreed upon by Latin American governments, by and
between the government agencies of each country
and by and between governments and private actors.
8. Formalize the dialogue between Latin America and
China and Asia-Pacific
– China holds Summits with Asia, Africa and Europe
– Who will take the next step?
• China has already taken the first step (White Book)
Advancing an agenda for ChinaLatam cooperation
• Strengthening S-S dialogue on issues • Diversifying Trade (Chinese fund for LA X
diversification)
of the global agenda
– Traceability in natural resource
– International monetary system
exports
reform
– Food safety and sustainable
– Climate Change
agriculture
– Reducing carbon in exports
• Increasing Trade
– Tech standards, quality certifications
– Transparency on SPs and sanitary
• Fostering reciprocal investments
protocols
– Regional portal on Investment
– NTB in line with WTO provisions
opportunities
– Arbitrations and negotiated
– Attract Chinese investors to invest in
settlements to avoid excessive
LA infrastructures
AD accusations
– Support LA investment in China and
• Fostering reciprocal investments
Asia Pacific (CCPIT may help)
•
Working for a China-Latin America
Summit
China’s Challenges
• Increase FDI in Latin America
• Funds to support SMEs exporters
• Technological Cooperation
• Understand political-institutional
aspects of Latin America
Latin America’s Challenges
• Diversify Exports
Joint Challenges
• Invest in China
• Improve dialogue between ministries of
trade (trade remedies)
• Participate in Asian supply value
chains
• Identify joint opportunites in China, Asia
and Latin America
• Coordinated policy on China
• Trade, investment and technological
business partnerships
• Work towards a China-Latin America
Summit.
• Create a forum for an ongoing dialogue
• Cooperation on issues of the global
agenda
How to deal with these challenges?
Please, read it.
osvaldo. [email protected]
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