Transcript PowerPoint Presentation - AIT

Eco-Housing in Asia and the
Pacific Region
Regional Training Programme on
the Design of Eco-house
8-12 August 2005
Population
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
Asia & Pacific
1000
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
0
Africa
Europe
North America
Asia and the Pacific
Latin America and the Caribbean
West Asia
Nearly two-thirds of world population growth is in Asia
Nearly 50 million peoples are being added to Asia every year
Population
Projected population
in Asia:Growth
4.88 billion
2030
Population
bybySub-region
2500000
Central Asia
1500000
North East Asia
South Asia
1000000
South East Asia
500000
2030
2020
2010
2000
1990
1980
1970
1960
0
1950
Thousand
2000000
Year
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision
Urbanization
Asia will have an urban population of 2.6 billion by 2030
3000
Asia
Growing
urban
proportion
2500
37%
(1.4 billion)
2000
1500
1000
54%
(2.6 billion)
24%
500
0
1975
2000
2030
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision
GDP Growth Forecast
6
2003-2015
5
6.0
4
3
2
3.1
3.1
2.3
1
0
World
U.S.A.
Europe
Asia
 The global economy is expected to grow at 3.1% during the 2002-2015
 Asian economy is projected to be growing at 6% during the same period
Source: Global Economic Prospects 2003, World Bank
Emerging Middle Class
Middle class (million) based on the
number of people who can buy
automobiles
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Asia:2003
China:2003 China:2006
 60s and 70s: if a Chinese person wanted to buy a bicycle, he had to save for a few years
 Now: for some middle class families, it would only take 2 to 3 years to save and buy a car
Growing Service Sector
60%
70
60
50
40
30
20
38%
Share of service
sector in
global economy
10
0
1960
1998
Urban vs. Rural: Energy Consumption
Energy
Consumption
Developed
(Germany)
(Kw/capita)
5
Developing
(India)
Kw/capita
0.6
Urban
6
2
Rural
3
0.3
Average
Emissions from mobile source
SO2 emissions2
Europe
USA & Canada
Asia
Mobile sources are the major
emitters
of
NOx,CO,
particulates, and HC, and in
addition contribute to SOx,
lead and CO2.
CO
HC NOx
Current 75% 93% 44%
2010
94% 98% 75%
(million metric tons per year)
Mobile sources contribution in
Shanghai1
110 million tons
120
100
80 million tons
80
60
40
20
0
2010
2020
Source: 1. SEI (2003); 2. www.wri.org
Impacts of Air Pollution at Different Scales
Global
Regional
Urban
Indoor
Health impacts of air pollution
Regional air pollution
Urban air pollution
Indoor air pollution
Scale of health impacts
Health Costs of Air Pollution
China2
• Environmental and health
costs of air pollution in China
is about 7 % of GDP [budget
deficit in 2003 = 3.3% of GDP]5
• Estimates shows that these
costs could rise to 13% of
China’s GDP by 2020
Bangkok
• Health cost of air pollution
• $640 million
• $800 million by 2020
Economic Implications of Health Impacts4
200
US$ millions (p.a.)
Asia1
• An estimated 487,000
premature deaths occur each
year due to outdoor air
pollution.
Bangkok
Mortality
Morbidity
150
100
50
0
Mumbai
Metro Manila
Jakarta
Kathmandu
Valley
Exposed to diesel exhaust6
Exposed to clean air6
Source: 1. WHO(2002); 2. State of the World 2003, World Watch Institute; 4. URBAIR project; 5. UN, 2004; 6: NIES, www.nies.go.jp
Costs of Air Pollution
Air pollution is becoming a major health threat in
Asian cities
“An
estimated
487,000
premature deaths in Asia occur
each year due to outdoor air
pollution”1
“ A total of 3,547 persons were
killed in international terrorist
attacks in 2001”2
1. WHO (2002);2. USDoS(2002)
Impact: water quantity
2003
105 million tons
grain short fall
Increasing
temperature
(largest in the
record)
Decreasing
water table
2004
Need to produce
105 m tons (2003
short fall)
• 3 of the 4 warmest years on record came
during the last 4 years
• 2004 projected to be the 5 consecutive year
th
in which the harvest falls short of
consumption
15 m tons (to feed
74 m people who
was added in
2004)
Impact: water quality
Urban centers
contribute more than
25% of the sewage in
India
• 63% of population in Asia
without access to clean water
• Infant mortality rates are 10 to
20 times higher in cities without
adequate water and sanitation
Import of Petroleum: burden on national budget
Total Asian Oil Consumption by 2010
(Barrel / Day)1
Need to be imported from
outside the region [18 – 24
million b/d]
25
20
15
10
5
0
Oil use
India spends over $3.5
billion on crude petroleum
import annually2.
Gasoline consumption trends in
Shanghai, China3
Source: 1. Harvard International Review (2003); 2. ESCAP Statistical Year Book 2002; 3. M.P. Walsh, US AEP 2000
Global Primary Energy Use
Source: 1. Volt Viewtech (www.energyloans.org)
Emissions from residential areas
 Average home emit more than twice as much carbon dioxide as the average car1
4,535 Kg of CO2 / year
9,979 Kg of CO2 /year
Source: 1. Volt Viewtech (www.energyloans.org)
Prevention: Turning the environmental degradation curve
Environmental
degradation
Business as usual
scenario
Prevention measures
such as renewable
energy sources
Economic development
Prevention Vs Mitigation/rehabilitation
Rehabilitation
Mitigation
Prevention
Costs of damage
Today & Tomorrow
Prevention
Rehabilitation
99% efforts
Today
Tomorrow
Mitigation
99% efforts
Hybrids
Price: $20,810 MSRP
Fuel efficiency: 23 Km / litre
Saving: $5,000 over 15 years
Reduces
CO2 by 50% CO,
HC and NOx by
90% below
Japanese
standards.
Toyota Prius Hybrid
SOLVE SOCIAL, ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES
SOCIAL BENEFITS
• create domestic jobs
• electricity to remote areas which
are not in the national power grid
ECONOMIC BENEFITS
• eliminate our
dependence on
foreign oil
• solve our
balance of
payments woes
H2O
• export
opportunities
Hydrogen
Energy
water
ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS
• solve our air
pollution
problems
• eliminate oil
spills
• reduce noise
pollution
WATER RESOURCES IN NEPAL
Nepal is reach in water resources and among the world’s top 5
countries in hydropower potential.
83,000MW
Less than
1.2% of
economic
potential
42,000MW
Current use
H2O
Economic
Technical
Hydropower potential in Nepal
Prevention
Mobility
Technical measures
Legal & financial
Housing
Technical measures
Legal & financial
Regional Expert Consultation
First Expert group meeting; 13 September 2005
Knowledge building
and education
Networking
Demonstration
Projects
3 groups were formed, and each of them are bringing out a white paper on it.
Demonstration Project: Objectives
General Objective:
promote eco-friendly buildings in the Asia Pacific region.
Specific Objectives:
1. demonstrate the
feasibility.
2.
suitability
and
technological
create awareness about the sustainability of ecofriendly buildings, leading to their wider acceptance
and use.
Demonstration Project: Scope
i)
Regional expert group
ii)
Develop generic designs for the different climatic zone
and economic groups
iii) Assist in constituting a National Task Force (NTF)
iv)
Design tailored to each of the selected countries
v)
Enhance the capacity of national technical committee
vi)
Assist in the construction in selected countries
vii) Facilitate wider dissemination of the demonstrated
concept
viii) Promotion in other countries of the region
Demonstration Project: Implementation Arrangement
National
Regional
Guidance
National Focal Points
Steering Committee
Technical input
National Implementing Agencies
Regional Expert group
Actual construction
National Task Force
•The project will be implemented in full ownership of governments, and in
collaboration with the private sector and expert institutions.
•Development of win-win partnership (public-private partnerships)
eg: manufacturers of solar panel.
•Governments will provide land, and other facility to enable the
demonstration.
Regional Training Programme
Maldives
Sri Lanka
Indonesia
National WS
National WS
National WS
Site Selection
Site Selection
Site Selection
Regional Training
Site Specific
Design
Site Specific
Design
Site Specific
Design