Transcript Trend in Educational Assortative Marriages in China from

Trends in Educational Assortative
Marriages in China from 1970 to 2000
Hongyun Han
Department of Sociology
Center for Demography and Ecology
[email protected]
University of Wisconsin-Madison
WHAT WE LEARNED
This study shows that couples are more likely to marry within their own educational groups between 1970 and 2000, as China’s economy grew rapidly. The rising spousal resemblance and
declining intermarriages among college (or high school) grads and elementary (or illiterates) indicate a widening social distance in China.
BACKGROUND
RESULTS
 Soared GDP per capita
 Transition from distribution
power to market
 Increasing mean age at first
marriage
 Growing educational attainment for
both men and women
How about homogamy?
 Minor decrease between 1970 and
1980, confirmed Raymo&Xie (2000)
 30% increase between 1980 and
2000
 Growth slows down in the late 1990s
 2.2 times more like to marry those w/
similar education in 2000
OBJECTIVES
 To examine the trends in
educational assortative mating
among newlyweds
 To assess the modernization
hypothesis (Smits et al., 1998)
DATA AND METHODS
 Data: Pooled 2000 China Census and 2001
Demographic Reproductive Health Survey
 Sample: 260,216 newlyweds composing
of 6 marriage cohorts
 Education: 5 categories
 Log-linear models
• Homogamy : estimate the trend in the odds
of homogamy
• Crossing models: estimate the trends in
odds of crossing educational barriers for
newlyweds
• Model specifications follow Schwartz
and Mare (2005) and Mare (1991)
 Rising spousal resemblance as
China’s economy boomed
 Declining intermarriages across
any educational barriers
 Supporting evidence to the
Modernization hypothesis
STUDY STRENGHTHEN
AND LIMITATION
 New and recent trends at national
level
 Large representative sample
 Yet without differentiating
regional variances (urban/rural)
How about heterogamy?
 People are less likely to marry
down (cross one education barrier)
• College grads : least, twice less likely to
marry down in the late 1980s than 1970s.
• Senior high grads: 50% drop in odds of
intermarriages, below 0.2 in 2000.
• Junior high grads: 30% drop
• Elementary: 50% drop
 Few, yet similar declines in
intermarriages among couples
crossing two or more educational
barriers
Patterns level off for highly
educated people in the late 1990s
CONCLUSION
STUDY IMPLICATIONS
 May indicate greater social
distance among groups
 May contribute to growing
economic inequality between
couples and their children.
Result in polarization of marriages and
households
• Highly educated couples (>12 yrs)
• Very low educated couples (<6 yrs)
Acknowledgement: This study is under the
supervision of Alberto Palloni, Christine
Schwartz and Jim Raymo. The author is
solely responsible for any errors and
mistakes.