Transcript Document

SYNERGIES AND TRADE-OFFS BETWEEN
UNSUSTAINABLE TRENDS IDENTIFIED IN THE
EUROPEAN UNION
JYRKI LUUKKANEN, JARMO VEHMAS, FRANCESCA ALLIEVI, JUHA PANULA-ONTTO & JARI KAIVOOJA FINLAND FUTURES RESEARCH CENTRE, UNIVERSITY OF TURKU
EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS CARRIED OUT WITH THE ADVANCED
SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS (ASA) APPROACH
1
0,5
0
1995
Synergy trend between CO2 and GDP from 1960 to 2007
1
0.9
Synergy factor
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Fig. 1. Development of the synergy trend between CO2 per capita
and GDP per capita in EU-15. Synergy factor 1 indicates total
synergy, while 0 represents delinking and -1 complete trade-off.
1997
1999
2001
2003
-0,5
0,8
0,6
0,4
0,2
0
-1
1995
1999
2001
2003
time
Fig. 2. Development of the synergy trends between CO2 per
capita and GDP per capita in the UK and Greece.
GDP per capita in Purchasing Power Standards VS Inequality of
income distribution
1
0,8
0,6
0,4
Finland
0,2
Italy
Spain
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
-0,2
1997
0
Romania
-0,4
United Kingdom
-0,6
Netherlands
-0,8
-1
average synergy
Netherlands
United Kingdom
Romania
Spain
Italy
Finland
-0,8
-0,6
-0,4
-0,2
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
Fig. 3. Synergy trends between GDP per capita and Inequality in
income distribution in selected EU countries.
Synergy trends between GDP and income inequality are studied
in Fig. 3. The development seems to be diversified. In a Nordic
welfare country the social policy to take care of poorer people
can be seen as delinking between these variables, while in
Romania the increasing GDP is linked to increasing inequality.
In the case of Italy the trade-off indicate that decrease in GDP
has resulted increase in inequality. The small positive synergy
in the UK and the Netherlands indicates that increase in GDP
increases slightly inequality.
In this paper, the potential synergies between unsustainable
trends in the European Union have been analysed by using the
Sustainable Development Indicator (SDI) data. The results of
the examples are challenging many basic policy formulations
and frameworks of the European Union. The results can help
the European Union to plan better and evidence based
sustainability strategy in the future.
The novel synergies and trade-offs analyses of key
sustainability issues is a methodological innovation in the field
futures oriented technology and societal analysis.
Contact
Jyrki Luukkanen
University of Turku, Finland Futures Research Centre
Tel. +358 50 3370710 • Fax +358 3 2238363
E-mail: [email protected]
© European Communities, 2011
1997
years
-1
An example of the synergy trend is given in the Fig. 1 for the
CO2 emissions and GDP in EU-15. In the 1060’ and 1970’s
there was considerable synergy between CO2 emissions and
GDP – when GDP increased also CO2 emissions increased. By
the 2000’s the synergy between these variables has almost
reached delinking.
Comparative analysis for the UK and Greece is provided in
Fig. 2, which indicates very different development in these
two countries.
Synergy factor
1
Synergy factor
European Union with novel methodological tools of the
sustainability analysis. The article provides a considerable
contribution to the European sustainability policy evaluation,
trend analysis and sustainability foresight analysis.
The study is based Advanced Sustainability Analysis (ASA)
framework and statistical decomposition analyses. The ASA
methodology tool package was developed in Terra2000,
DECOIN and SMILE projects of European framework
programmes. In order to explore synergies and trade-offs
between different trends we provide definitions for the terms.
We can say that there is synergy between two factors when
their combined effect is greater (or smaller) than the sum of
their separate effects. Trade-off can be defined as a balance
achieved between two features where the selection of one
feature results in the loss of another feature. In addition to
synergy and trade-off also delinking can describe the situation
between the variables and in this case the increase or decrease
of one variable does not have an effect on the other variable..
The trends investigated can represent different dimensions of
sustainable development.
Synergy trend between GDP and CO2 in Greece from 1995
to 2005
Synergy trend between CO2 per capita and GDP per capita
in UK from 1995 to 2005
2011
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