Transcript Document

Alone in the void :
getting real about the
fragile and tenuous
nature of modern
civilization
Dr. Paul C. Sutton
Department of Geography &
The Environment
University of Denver
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Adam Frank’s Op-Ed Piece
Magical Thinking in
A Reality Based World
“. . . . Short of a scientific miracle of the kind
that has never occurred, our future history for
millenniums will be played out on Earth and in
the “near space” environment of the other
seven planets, their moons and the asteroids in
between. For all our flights of imagination, we
have yet to absorb this reality. Like it or not, we
are probably trapped in our solar system for a
long, long time. We had better start coming to
terms with what that means for the human
future.
....
In a kind of cosmic version of Manifest Destiny
we assume that, unless something terrible
happens, our science will be taking us to the
stars sometime in the next few hundred years.”
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http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/25/opinion/alone-in-the-void.html?_r=0
The Myths we want to believe
Reader comments posted to this editorial suggested two:
A) The Myth of Human Progress
or
B) The Myth of the Coming Apocalypse
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The Facts we don’t want to believe
1) Human Population cannot grow forever.
2) Fossil Fuels are Finite.
3) Carrying Capacity is real.
4) Environmental Degradation is real.
5) Climate Change is real.
6) Failure is an option.
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The Human Population “Hockey Stick”
Milestones
1800
1 Billion
1927
2 Billion
1960
3Billion
1974
4 Billion
1987
5 Billion
But the Growth Rate is Slowing . . . Right?
1963
2.19%
66 Million / year
2010
1.15%
82 million / year
1999
6 Billion
2011
7 Billion
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Does ‘Peak Oil’ matter?
How will ‘Fracking’
stretch these
curves?
What comes first
Climate ‘Tipping Points’
or
The end of fossil fuel?
Conventional wisdom leans
Towards the former.6
Food for thought
A cocktail napkin calculation:
Global Energy Consumption
Is: 474 x 1018 joules.
Food production consumes 30% of the
world’s energy consumption and
1/3 of the food we produce is wasted.
Assume 2,000 calories/day (~8,300
joules) for 7 billion people.
We use ~ 5 joules of energy to produce
1 joule of food.
Globally the EROI for food
today is roughly 5 to 1
and most of the 5 is fossil fuel.
We consume roughly 400 years of
stored sunshine in the form of fossil
fuels every year. 7
Carrying Capacity &
The Ecological Footprint
Today humanity uses the
equivalent of 1.5 planets
to provide the resources
we use and absorb our
waste. This means it now
takes the Earth one year
and six months to
regenerate what we use in
a year.
August 20th
Is World
Overshoot Day
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http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/
Sustainability
varies spatially
The UNDP used
the Ecological
Footprint in
tandem with HDI
to measure
national
performance
regarding human
well-being.
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Some inconvenient facts and the
Environmental ‘State of the World’
The ‘Report Card’ of GEO 5
Shows ‘Little or No Progress’ or
worse on more than 50% of the
Environmental Challenges they
assessed (19 out of 34)
With ‘Further Deterioration’ the
Assessment for: ‘Wetlands’,
‘Fish Stocks’, and ‘Coral Reefs’’
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And to think we almost didn’t notice . . .
Rowland and Molina suggested that long-lived
halogens, including CFCs, would catalyze the
degradation of UV absorbing O3 to O2.
The Hole in the Ozone Layer
The Rowland–Molina hypothesis was strongly disputed by
representatives of the aerosol and halocarbon industries. The
Chair of the Board of DuPont was quoted as saying that
ozone depletion theory is "a science fiction tale ... a load of
rubbish ... utter nonsense".
The President of Precision Valve Corporation (and inventor
of the first practical aerosol spray can valve), wrote to the
Chancellor of UC Irvine to complain about Rowland's public
statements.
A trade journal even questioned whether Rowland was a
KGB agent bent on destroying capitalism.
Crutzen, Rowland, and
Molina were awarded
the 1995 Nobel Prize
in Chemistry.
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And to think we almost didn’t notice . . .
The Great Pacific
Garbage Gyre
Massive quantity of mostly
submerged plastic debris.
Predicted to exist in 1988.
Discovered to exist in 1997.
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And to think we almost didn’t notice . . .
Some of the effects of climate
change . . .
Pine Beetle Damage in New
Jersey (flat) vs. in Colorado
(mountainous)
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/02/science/earth/in-new-jersey-pines-trouble-arrives-on-sixlegs.html?pagewanted=2&_r=0&nl=todaysheadlines&emc=edit_th_20131202
New Jersey
(flat topography)
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Colorado (mountainous topography)
But even when we do notice . . .
All truth passes through three stages.
First, it is ridiculed.
Second, it is violently opposed.
Third, it is accepted as self-evident.
The Theory of Anthropogenic Climate Change
Seems to be enjoying
Stage 1, Stage 2, and Stage 3
Simultaneously.
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Maybe the ‘Truth’ of climate change does
not matter.
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The Most Dangerous Myth?
How many
Economists does it
take to screw
in a lightbulb?
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Adam Smith, Free Markets,
and Neo-Liberal Ideology
‘Greed is Good.’
People acting in their
own self interest
naturally and without
intention serve
societies interests
optimally.
“By preferring the support of domestic to that of
foreign industry, he intends only his own security;
and by directing that industry in such a manner as
its produce may be of the greatest value, he intends
only his own gain, and he is in this, as in many
other cases, led by an invisible hand to promote an
end which was no part of his intention. Nor is it
always the worse for the society that it was not part
of it. By pursuing his own interest he frequently
promotes that of the society more effectually than
when he really intends to promote it. I have never
known much good done by those who affected to
trade for the public good. It is an affectation,
indeed, not very common among merchants, and
very few words need be employed in dissuading
them from it.”
Adam Smith
The Wealth of17
Nations
Free Markets will not . . . .
1) Build a lighthouse or a weather satellite
2) Create and sustain a judicial system
3) Invest enough in basic research
4) Enforce property rights fairly
5) Provide public education
6) Find a hole in the ozone layer
7) Clean up an oil spill
8) Create a commonwealth
“Climate change is the greatest market failure the
world has ever seen, and it interacts with other
market imperfections.”
2006 Stern Report
on the Economics of Climate18
Change
Market Failures Matter
Monopolies
- A monopolist will overcharge and under produce
- This is why we have government regulated utilities
Public Goods
- Non-Rival & Non-Excludable in consumption
- Fresh air, knowledge, national defence, street lighting
Common Property
- Garrett Hardin’s ‘Tragedy of the commons’
Externalities
- Both Positive and Negative can be problematic
- Tragedy of the Condos, and Pollution
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Do we need more or less government?
“My goal is to cut
government in half in
twenty-five years, to get it
down to the size where we
can drown it in the
bathtub.”
Grover Norquist
Prominent and influential
conservative in the United States
Imagine a Footy game with
no referees, no
scorekeepers, no clock, no
groundskeeper.
In American gridiron there are 7
on the field and that does not
include timekeeper, chain gang,
scorekeeper, . . . .
1/3 of the personnel involved in
this ‘Free Market Competition’
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I am not alone on this soap box . . .
APOSTOLIC EXHORTATION
EVANGELII GAUDIUM
OF THE HOLY FATHER
FRANCIS
TO THE BISHOPS, CLERGY,
CONSECRATED PERSONS
AND THE LAY FAITHFUL
ON THE PROCLAMATION OF THE
GOSPEL
IN TODAY’S WORLD
November 26, 2013
Pope Francis
Note: It is a new and somewhat
uncomfortable feeling to find the Pope to
be an eloquent ally of mine 
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“No to an economy of exclusion”
“In this context, some people continue to defend trickle-down
theories which assume that economic growth, encouraged by a free
market, will inevitably succeed in bringing about greater justice and
inclusiveness in the world. This opinion, which has never been
confirmed by the facts, expresses a crude and naïve trust in the
goodness of those wielding economic power and in the sacralized
workings of the prevailing economic system. Meanwhile, the
excluded are still waiting. To sustain a lifestyle which excludes
others, or to sustain enthusiasm for that selfish ideal, a globalization
of indifference has developed. Almost without being aware of it, we
end up being incapable of feeling compassion at the outcry of the
poor, weeping for other people’s pain, and feeling a need to help
them, as though all this were someone else’s responsibility and not
our own. The culture of prosperity deadens us; we are thrilled if the
market offers us something new to purchase. In the meantime all
those lives stunted for lack of opportunity seem a mere spectacle; they
fail to move us.”
http://www.vatican.va/holy_father/francesco/apost_exhortations/documents/papa-francesco_esortazioneap_20131124_evangelii-gaudium_en.html
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“No to the new idolatry of money”
“While the earnings of a minority are growing exponentially, so
too is the gap separating the majority from the prosperity
enjoyed by those happy few. This imbalance is the result of
ideologies which defend the absolute autonomy of the
marketplace and financial speculation. Consequently, they reject
the right of states, charged with vigilance for the common good,
to exercise any form of control. A new tyranny is thus born,
invisible and often virtual, which unilaterally and relentlessly
imposes its own laws and rules. Debt and the accumulation of
interest also make it difficult for countries to realize the potential
of their own economies and keep citizens from enjoying their real
purchasing power. To all this we can add widespread corruption
and self-serving tax evasion, which have taken on worldwide
dimensions. The thirst for power and possessions knows no limits.
In this system, which tends to devour everything which stands in
the way of increased profits, whatever is fragile, like the
environment, is defenseless before the interests of a deified
market, which become the only rule.”
http://www.vatican.va/holy_father/francesco/apost_exhortations/documents/papa23
francesco_esortazione-ap_20131124_evangelii-gaudium_en.html
Ecological Economics Worldview
Interaction between built, social,
human, and natural capital
required to produce human wellbeing. Built and human capital (the
economy) are embedded in society
which is embedded in the rest of
nature.
Ecosystem services are the relative
contribution of natural capital to
human well-being, they do not flow
directly. It is therefore essential to
adopt a broad, transdisciplinary
perspective in order to address
ecosystem services.
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Ecosystem Services are a multi-faceted Market Failure
Economic Valuation of Ecosystem
Services have suggested that the
Total value of the world’s Ecosystem
Services and Natural Capital are
Signifcantly larger the the world’s
Market Economy.
Gross World Product
~ $50 Trillion
Economic Value of
World’s Eco-Services ~$125 Trillion
These findings are also ridiculed,
violently opposed, and accepted as
having always been true.
Also described as
an underestimate
of infinity.
Costanza, R; d’Arge, R; de Groot, R; Farber, S; Grasso,
M; Hannon, B; Naeem,
S; Limburg, K; Paruelo, J; O’Neill, R; Raskin, R; Sutton,
P; van den Belt, M; (1997)
The Value of the World’s Ecosystem Services and
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Natural Capital Nature Vol 387 May 15
Changes in the Global Value of
Ecosystem Services
New Total Global Value for Ecosystem
Services:
$145 Trillion / year
(Currently Global GDP is $ 85 Trillion)
Losses since 1997 $20.2 Trillion / year
Forthcoming Article in Global Environmental Change:
Changes in the global value of ecosystem services
Robert Costanza, Ph.D.; Rudolph de Groot, Ph.D.; Paul C
Sutton, Ph.D.; Sander van der Ploeg, Ph.D.; Sharolyn
Anderson, Ph.D.; Ida Kubiszewski, Ph.D.; Stephen Farber,
Ph.D.; R. Kerry Turner, Ph.D.
A Tale of Two Paradigms
Neo-Classical
Economics
Ecological
Economics
The purpose of an economic
system is to maximize Gross
Domestic Product (GDP or
GDP/Capita) regardless of
how wealth is distributed.
The purpose of an economic
system is to maximize human
well-being which results from
an interaction of social, built,
natural, and human capital
Not everything than can be counted counts,
and not everything that counts can be counted.
Albert Einstein
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“Ah, but aFree
man’s reach
should
exceed
his
grasp,
Markets willnot:
Or what’s a heaven for?”
Robert Browning
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The Pale Blue Dot
Thank
You
Questions
or
Comments ?
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