Transcript CHINA’S POPULATION & DEVELOPMENT

Population GrowthImpact on the MDGs
Baige Zhao, Ph.D.
Vice minister
National Population &
Family Planning Commission, China
5 June 2006, UK Hearing
New Approach of the Chinese Government
• Shift from population control to human development
• Shift from simply paying concerns to population quantity
to solving the population issue as a whole
• Strategy: promote economic development, keep the low
fertility rate (replacement level), improve population
quality in terms of health and education, improve
population structure, promote rational population
migration, safeguard population safety, and promote the
overall development of the human beings.
Concept of Human Development
• Human development refers to the expansion of people’s
capabilities and choices to lead lives they value.
• Human development advocates for people’s freedom to
choose the lives they want, enhancing freedom is
ultimately the goal of human development, the means to
achieve it, and its guarantee for sustainability.
• The supreme goal of human development is achieved
through the “two-C” concept of development: the common
development of all members of society and the
comprehensive development of each individual.
•
Mobilizing public enthusiasm for participating in social and
economic advancement—rather than passively accepting
development’s results—is therefore a linchpin of the “humanoriented” approach to development.
Indicator of Human Development
A society’s achievements in human development are
measured by the human development index (HDI), a
weighed index of three measures:
1) Life expectancy;
2) Level of education (measured by a combination
of literacy rates and combined primary,
secondary, and tertiary school enrollment ratios);
3) Level of economic development (measured by
GDP per capita).
Changes in China’s Human Development
Index (HDI)
Source: Based on data from the UNDP, 2003; 2005.
Changes in National, Urban & Rural HDIs, 1990-2002
Source: China Human Development Report 2005
Changes in China’s Total Fertility Rate
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
1980
1990
2000
Source: China Population and Family Planning Data Manual 2004
Demographics (1990-2003)
1990
1995
2003
Population, total (000,000)
1,143.3
1,211.2
1,292.3
Total Fertility Rate
2.25
1.85
1.80
Birth Defects / 100,000 Live Births N.A.
8.7
13.0
Population by Age 65+ (%)
5.6
6.7
7.0
Sex Ratio at Birth
111.3
115.6
117.0
Floating Population (000,000)
N.A.
N.A.
140
Proportion on Urban Population
26.4
29.0
40.5
Resource: UN Country Team in China
Indicators of Economic Development (1990-2003)
1990
1995
2003
Decadal Average Annual Growth Rate
9.0 (1984- 8.0 (1994-
of GDP Per Capita (%)
1993)
2003)
1,627
4,767
9,023
1,510
4,283
8,472
686
1,578
2,622
4.0
3.0
5.5
GNP Per Capita (RMB)
Per Capita Disposable Income
of Urban Residents (RMB)
Per Capita Net Income of Rural
Residents (RMB)
Public Expenditure on Social,Cultural
& Educational Development (%)
Resource: UN Country Team in China
Trends in per Capita Income Changes of Urban and
Rural Residents 1990-2003(at variable prices)
Source: China Human Development Report 2005
Number of Rural Poor
Public Expenditure on Education
(100 Million RMB, Current Prices, 1978-2001)
Source: China Human Development Report 2005
Government Budget on Health expenditure
Source: China Human Development Report 2005
Indicators of Human and Social Development in
China
Items/ Year
1990
2003
Human Development Index
0.627
0.755
Life Expectation at Birth
68.6
71.4
MMR (100,000)
88.9
51.3
IMR (‰)
50.2
25.5
Adult Literacy Rate (%)
77.7
89.1
Literacy Rate of 15-24 Year Old(%)
94.7
98.6
Source: Common Country Assessment 2004, Country Team in China
China’s Millennium Development Goals
China’s Millennium Development Goals
(continued)
Conclusion
• Population growth do has its impact on MDG.
China’s population program has helped to achieve
the sustainability. When population growth slows
down, economy development quickens and HDI
improves.
• Rational population growth enhance the human
capital development and HDI improvement.
• China--- a country with the largest population
shifts to a country with the largest human capitals