Transcript Slide 1

Russia
Overview
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Background Video
Russian People
Economic Issues
Politics and Government
US Interests
Overview
Video
Russian People
• Ethnic Diversity
• Soviet Union was one of the world's
most ethnically diverse countries, with
150+ distinct ethnic groups
– Population estimated at 293M in 1991
– Majority were Russians (51%),
Ukrainians (15%), and Uzbeks (6%)
• Even after USSR dissolution, Russia
remains one of the most ethnically
diverse
Russian People
Russian Population Decline
• Russia is 6th most populous country with a
population estimated at 142.8 million…
• …But serious population decline since 1990s:
– Falling birthrate
– Rising infertility rates
– Falling life expectancy
– Deteriorating public health
– Highest infant mortality of industrialized nations
Russian People
Education
• Education, even under the Soviet system,
has always played a significant role in
Russian society as demonstrated by:
– Near 100% literacy rate
– World class achievement in music, ballet,
art, science, literature, etc.
– At least 8 Russian recipients of the Nobel
Prize, including Poet Laureate Joseph
Brodsky
Russian People
Religion
• Soviet policy towards religion based on
Marxism-Leninism ideology
– Control and suppression of religion
– Atheism became official doctrine
• Even under Soviet rule, many Russians
professed religious belief
• State-sponsored persecution of Jews
and Christians, with Muslims faring
somewhat better, until fall of USSR
Russian People
Personal Traits
• Pessimism…Difficulties of life, “optimistic
fatality,” and bittersweet humor
• Durability…Stability, defending the status quo,
and predictability are critical aspects of the
long-suffering, enduring Russian character
• Patience…Tenacity, stamina, and composure
are required in Russian interactions
Harsh history and skeptical outlook leads Russians to value stability,
security, and predictability (Yale Richmond)
Russian People
Personal Traits (cont)
• Home…A sanctuary of security, hospitality,
and relaxed/caring environment
• Friends…Close, intimate relationships held in
high regard and aren’t entered into lightly
• No compromise…Mutual concession can be
seen as a sign of weakness
Better to have 100 friends than 100 rubles. (Russian proverb)
Russian People
Personal Traits (cont)
• Traditions…Russians are very proud of their
heritage, from folk traditions to importance as
a regional power
• “Russian soul”…Emphasis on feeling,
sentiment, and nostalgia for the past, as well as
a valuing of suffering over satisfaction
Traditional Russian values– self-sacrifice, compassion, family
importance, moral strength, respect for elders, and spirituality– pervades
Russian People
Similarities to US
• Continental orientation…Vast land, ethnic
diversity, and regional power
• Frontier spirit…Expansionist mentality
• Nuclear weapons…Large stockpiles,
environmental issues, and concern over
nuclear trafficking
• Bigness…Energetic, inventive emphasis
Russian People
United States
Russia
*Authority*
*Authority*
• Power flows up from the
people to elected officials
*Individual/Group*
• Emphasis on individualism
• Highly centralized,
authoritarian decision
makers impose change from
above
*Individual/Group*
• Emphasis on communal
good or sobornost
Russian People
United States
Russia
*Nature of Conflict*
*Nature of Conflict*
• Most major wars fought far
from country
• Most conflict fought within
or near country
*Change*
*Change*
• Change or “shaking up” the
status quo viewed positively
• Change fraught with danger
and uncertainty; stability
preferred
Economics
Economic decline began long before the USSRs
eventual dissolution. Key factors of this
economic stagnation included:
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Centralized economic decision making
Inadequate economic incentives
Poor worker discipline
Worsening infrastructure problems
Too much spending on the military, not enough
investment in the civilian economy
Economics
• Stopping the economic free fall required drastic
measures… Enter President Boris Yeltsin
• Yeltsin proposed “Shock Therapy,” abandoning a
centrally planned economy for a free market system.
Three key components of “Shock Therapy”:
– Implement price decontrol
– Privatize economic activity, including sale of stateowned industries
– Reduce government subsidies
Economics
• Economists thought dismantling the administrative
command system in Russia would raise production
capability, the GDP, and living standards…
• It didn’t… Removal of “social safety net” resulted in
unanticipated challenges:
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Higher prices, inflation, and corruption
Reluctance to participate in privatization
Higher unemployment (14%)
25% of Russians live below poverty line
Lower standard of living
Economics
• Economic turmoil directly
contributed to the rise in
human trafficking in
Russia and the Former
Soviet Republics
– Women and children
disproportionately
affected
– Creation of “artificial
orphans”
• Women in particular face:
– Unemployment
– Low salaries
– Sexual discrimination
– Limited retraining
programs
Human trafficking is a billion dollar illicit industry, ranked third behind
drug trafficking and illegal arms sales… And is one of the fastest growing
areas of international crime.
Politics and Government
When the USSR faded into history on
31 December 1991, fifteen newly
independent states emerged, each of
which had to answer these questions:
What type
What
How
How
ofpowers
government
will
willwe
will
it form
work?
itwill
have?
it?we have?
And perhaps most importantly…
How will we transition to a post-Soviet
government?
Nikita Khrushchev
Premier of the Soviet Union,
Mar 1958- Oct 1964
Politics and Government
• No easy answers for any one
– 13 parties competed in the 1993 Russian parliamentary
elections; two years later, 43 parties fielded candidates
• Each country’s transition proceeded differently
– Some approached democracy
– Others kept authoritarian political structures
• ...ALL marked with complex
struggles that continue today!
Politics and Government
• Generally, the politics of transition have pitted
people with one of five different political
outlooks against each other:
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Democrats and Reformers
Communists
Nationalists and Ultranationalists
Economic Pragmatists
Islamicists
Mikhail Gorbachev
Last General Secretary of the CPSU
Mar 1985 – Dec 1991
Politics and Government
• Democrats and Reformers
• Many states wanted to establish
democratic governments
• Strong pro-democracy movements
developed in Russia, the Baltic States,
Ukraine, etc.
• Unwillingness to compromise,
however, often undermined efforts and
led to numerous pro-democracy parties
Boris Yeltsin
1st
President of the
Russian Federation
July 1991 – Dec 1999
Politics and Government
• Communists
• Primary threat to the democratic reform
movement
• Argue that democrats mishandled the 1
economy even worse than the
communists had
• Generally discredited due to past
economic mishandling, monopolized
power, and internal division
Vladimir Lenin
st
Premier of Soviet Union
Nov 1917 – Jan 1924
Gennady Zyuganov
Head of the Communist Party of
the Russian Federation
1993 - Current
Politics and Government
• Nationalists and Ultranationalists
• Advocate national control of
political-economic power and
defense of social-cultural traditions
• Many nationalists in the nonRussian states see Russia as a threat
• Condemn democrats as incompetent
and communists as the source of the
problems
Eduard Limonov
National Bolshevik Party leader
Politics and Government
• Economic Pragmatists
• Industrialists, industrial workers,
and members of the military are
the core members of pragmatic
economic centrist groups
• Advocate that the most
Karl Marx
important concern for Russia is Author, Communist Manifesto
economic growth, almost
regardless of how it occurs
Politics and Government
• Islamicists
• In Azerbaijan and the Central
Asian states, proponents of
Islamic governments have
limited, but real, power
• Like other post-Soviet political
movements, there are divisions
in this group as well (i.e.,
Moderate vs Fundamentalists)
Politics and Government
Russian Government
Legislature
Executive
Judiciary*
Central Bank
Federation
Council
(178 Seats)
President
Dmitriy
Medvedev
Constitutional
Court
Chairman
(Chief Sergei
Ignatiev)
The State Duma
(450 Seats)
Premier
Supreme
Court
Deputy
Vladimir Putin
First Deputy
Premier
Igor Shuvalov
The Ministries
Dmitriy Medvedev
President of the
Russian Federation
(Premier and his
deputies, ministers, and
selected other
individuals)
Supreme Court
of Arbitration
* Judiciary appointed for life by the
Federation Council on the
recommendation of the President
Politics and Government
• Russian Foreign Policy
• Quite different than that of Cold War-era USSR
– Cold War policy shaped by animosity
– “Capitalistic encirclement” meant long term peace
between two antithetical world views impossible
• Now, focus is on redefining Russian security
interests, rebuilding Russia’s global influence, and
bolstering economic growth
Bottom line: Political uncertainty facing Russia and the Former Soviet
Republics remains a significant concern, and this political evolution has
US Interests
• In 2000, the Report of the Commission on
American National Interests concluded that
Russia ranks among the few countries whose
actions can affect American interests for
several key reasons:
– Size and strategic location
– Soviet legacy
– Membership on UN Security Council
– Immense nuclear arsenal
US Interests
• Size and strategic location
– Key regional player in Europe, Middle East, and
Central/South/East Asia
– Russia’s “geopolitical weight” arguably exceeds
that of London or Paris
• Soviet legacy
– Russia maintains relationship with and information
about countries that are relatively inaccessible to
the West
– Particularly true in Middle East and Central Asia
US Interests
• UN Security Council membership
– Ability to ease or complicate our efforts, affecting
our ability to provide global leadership
• Immense nuclear arsenal
– Control and security key issue
– Economic turmoil and lax security measures
contribute to the risk of rogue entities stealing or
using bribery to acquire nuclear material
“… [security] measures date from the Soviet era and are not designed to
counter the pre-eminent threat faced today, an insider who attempts
unauthorized actions…” (National Intelligence Council, 2002)
Summary
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Background Video
Russian People
Economic Issues
Politics and Government
US Interests
Russia
and the Former
Soviet Republics
Questions?
Student
Presentations