Transcript Slide 1

The New Hampshire Forum
on Higher Education
Recommended Strategy Going Forward
A Report to the Board of Governors
October 30, 2002
Submitted by
Gallagher, Callahan & Gartrell, P.A.
Contact: Dr. Lisa K. Shapiro, Chief Economist
www.gcglaw.com
800-528-1181
1
Overview





Background
Summary of Recommendations
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
Forum Strategic Direction
Implementation and Next Steps
2
Background
3
Background
Mission Statement
The Forum’s mission is to sustain and grow New Hampshire’s
prosperity by ensuring a workforce of highly educated and welltrained workers.
Vision Statement
New Hampshire is a community where more citizens seek to
attend and have affordable access to in-state higher education
institutions and continuing education opportunities, and where
higher education institutions are recognized for responsively
meeting the evolving business demand for well-educated and
skilled workers, providing NH with a well-prepared workforce
with which to sustain its economy.
4
Background
Goals to Achieve Mission and Vision
Access &
Affordability
Citizens Know
Importance of
Higher Education
Working Partnerships Between
Business/Colleges/Universities
Change Attitudes and Behaviors
Credible Voice
Knowledgeable Board
5
Background
Forum Research
Data
Studies
Reports
Data
Studies
Reports
Data
Studies
Reports
Data
6
Background
Strategic Direction of the Forum
Action 1
Data/Studies
Data/Studies
Action 2
Data/Studies
Action 3
Data/Studies
7
Summary
Summary of
of Recommendations
Recommendations
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SummaryofofRecommendations
Recommendations
Summary
Forum
Strategic
Direction
Strategic
Direction
for the
Forum
 Frame problem as the challenge of the 21st century
economy
 In this economy, business, education and government
must work together more closely to keep pace and stay
competitive
 The Forum’s strategy is to become the “place” where
business, education, and government connect to find new
ways to grow, attract and retain knowledgeable workers
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SummaryofofRecommendations
Recommendations
Summary
Forum
Strategic
Direction
Strategic
Direction
for the
Forum
New
High
B
Job Skills
Economy
A
C
Old
Low
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SummaryofofRecommendations
Recommendations
Summary
Forum
Strategic
Direction
Strategic
Direction
for the
Forum
Accessible
& Affordable
New
B
C
Old
Higher Education
Economy
A
No Access &
Not Affordable
11
SummaryofofRecommendations
Recommendations
Summary
Forum
Strategic
Direction
Strategic
Direction
of the
Forum
Forum has Necessary Resources
Access and Affordability
Citizens Know Importance of Higher Education
Working Partnerships between
Business/Colleges/Universities
Change Attitudes and Behaviors
Credible Voice
Knowledgeable Board
12
Summary of Recommendations
Power
Strategic
of Partnerships
Direction
Programs
Policy
Promotion
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14
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Summary of Recommendations
Case Statement
Investing in New Hampshire’s Economic
Case Statement
Future
Investing in New Hampshire’s Economic Future
Staying competitive in a quickly changing, global economy
requires New Hampshire’s higher education institutions and
businesses to collaborate in new and innovative ways. The
fastest growing sectors in the new economy require highly trained
workers with specialized educational and training needs throughout
their changing careers – often outside of the traditional classroom.
Working closely together, business and education can respond more
effectively and efficiently to New Hampshire’s shifting economic
needs in ways that allow more people to access learning and the
careers of tomorrow.
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Summary of Recommendations
Case Statement
The Challenge
 7 out of 10 of New Hampshire’s fastest growing jobs over the
next 10 years require a post-secondary degree
 Demand for college-educated workers is forecasted to outpace
supply nationwide
 Mobile workforce creates competition for New Hampshire grads
 Fast changing economy requires lifelong learning and training
creating older, non-traditional student population
 New economy jobs require highly specific training
 New Hampshire higher education costs outpace inflation
 Declining government resources decrease financial aid
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Summary of Recommendations
Case Statement
The New Hampshire Forum on Higher Education – comprised of business,
education and public policy leaders – is committed to ensuring a workforce of
highly educated and well-trained citizens to sustain New Hampshire’s
economic prosperity.
Because the needs of business, higher education and government are
increasingly interconnected, the continued vitality of our evolving economy
depends on our ability to anticipate future needs. Whether it’s building
awareness, creating access to affordable higher education or specialized
workforce training, addressing these needs requires new levels of collaboration
in an economy driven by information.
The Forum acts as a catalyst to bring together the strengths and assets of
educational, business and government entities to facilitate partnerships, share
best practices and discover new ways to work together to ensure New
Hampshire’s success in the 21st century economy.
Together, we can play a positive and important role in sustaining New
Hampshire educational advancement and economic growth.
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19
20
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Implementation
and
Next Steps
Summary of
Recommendations
 Get working partnerships going
 Engineering/Science/Technology
 Quality Educators
 Federal Higher Education Act Reauthorization
 Get the Forum message out
 Get on and stay on State government leaders’ agenda
 Get Forum content up to speed
22
st
Challenges
of
the
21
Economy
Challenges of the 21st Century
Century Economy
What is the Economy Like?
What works in this Economy?
What can the Forum do as a Catalyst?
23
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
Information Drives the Economy
Economic Output Per Worker
1977
Less Money
More Physical Goods
1997
More Money
Less Physical Goods
$19,404
$26,843
5,300 lbs
4,100 lbs
24
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
Education Fuels the Economy
Growth in Mean Earnings
$106,840
2000
Total
No HS diploma
HS Diploma
Some College
$40,404
$38,238
Associate's
Degree
Bachelor's
Degree
$87,575
$58,294
$59,485
6%
$40,209
$36,242
$30,324
$25,474
5%
$33,110
9%
$24,279
$38,427
$45,034
11%
$48,263
17%
$74,361
$72,297
24%
23%
18%
$92,507
1991
15%
Master's
Degree
Professional
Degree
Doctoral
Degree
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Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
Growth in Share of More Highly Educated Workers
New Hampshire
1990
2000
Graduate/
Professional Degree
10%
8%
No H.S.
Diploma
18%
Bachelor's Degree
16%
H.S. Graduate/
Equivalency
32%
Associate's Degree
8%
Some college,
No Degree
13%
19%
29%
9%
20%
18%
26
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
More Post-Secondary Degrees Are Needed
National Forecast for Workers with College Degrees
To Fill New and Replacement Jobs, 2012
18 Million
12 Million
Demand
(new graduates needed)
Supply
(current degree trends)
27
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
New Hampshire Faces Shortages in Critical Fields
Nursing
 Registered and Practical Nursing graduates peaked in NH
in 1995, at over 1,000, but has since declined to 416
 NH is expected to have 599 annual job openings for RNs
and LPNs, and another 261 for Nursing Aides
 More than half of NH’s practicing nurses were 45 years old
or over in 2001
 Just as these nurses are retiring, demand for nursing will
increase because of the aging population
28
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
New Hampshire Faces Shortages in Critical Fields
Teaching
 NH conferred 1.7% fewer Bachelor’s Degrees in education in 2000 than
in 1992; the US conferred 0.1% more
 NH has about 17,500 educators today and expects at least 820 annual K12 job openings
 As many as 500-700 teachers are projected to retire annually, and the
retirement rate is projected to double in the next 5 years
 Since 1999, Alternative Certification has increased by 187, and total
annual certification has reached 1,696
 But not all new teachers get jobs in NH, and 67% are not being certified
in critical shortage areas, e.g., math, chemistry, special education, and
sciences
29
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
7 out of 10 Occupations in NH with the Fastest Growth
Rates Require an Associate's Degree or More
Occupation
Projected Growth
1998-2008
Computer Support Specialist
87.9%
Systems Analyst
87.4%
Desktop Publishing Specialist
84.4%
Database Administrator
72.6%
Home Health Aide
62.3%
Instructional Coordinator
60.4%
Physician Assistant
59.9%
Computer Engineer
57.1%
Medical Assistant
56.9%
Medical Record Technician
53.3%
30
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
Many of the Occupations in NH Adding the Most New
Jobs Do Not Require a Post-Secondary Degree
1998-2008
Occupation
Growth
Education / Training
Retail Salespersons
4,025
Short-term on-the-job training
Registered Nurses
3,103
Associate's degree
Cashiers
2,874
Short-term on-the-job training
General Managers & Top Executives
2,699
Work experience plus degree
System Analysts
2,364
Bachelor's Degree
General Office Clerks
1,854
Short-term on-the-job training
Nursing Aides, Orderlies & Attendants
1,747
Short-term on-the-job training
Computer Support Specialists
1,707
Associate's Degree
Teacher Aides, Paraprofessionals
1,682
Short-term on-the-job training
First-line Supervisor of Sales & Related Workers
1,600
Work experience in related occupation
• 50%-60% of projected job openings require less than an
Associate's Degree
31
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
Businesses Need Workers with Special Skill Sets
 While demand for engineers and technology workers is expected to
increase over the medium and long-term, the number of degrees
conferred has declined, and even more so in NH. There has been
nearly a 31% decline in annual degrees conferred in NH for
engineers as compared with a 6% decline nationally
 Aggregating across all computer sciences and engineer degrees, NH
still lagged the U.S.
Growth in Bachelor’s Degrees
In Computer Sciences and Engineering
1995 to 2000
NH
US
-2.8%
+6.2%
32
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
Fast Changing Economy Requires Fast
Changing Education System
Because there is a decline in “old, stable” industrial jobs, educational
institutions, students, and businesses continue to intersect throughout a
person’s lifetime
Interaction of Business and Higher Education
Old Way
Post Secondary
Education
Businesses
New Way
Post Secondary
Education
Businesses
33
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
Aging Population
 The aging population will accelerate the number of nontraditional students pursuing post-secondary degrees
NH Population Growth Rates: 1990-2000 and 2005-2015
1990-2000
2005-2015
Total
11%
7%
0-24 years old
4%
0%
25-64 years old
15%
7%
65+ years old
18%
31%
34
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
Non-Traditional Students
 On average, college-educated workers have held 4 jobs since graduation,
and expect at least one more job change in the future
 The percent of adults participating in adult education has increased
Percent of Adults
Who Participated in Adult Education1
(by age)
1991
1999
16 to 24 yrs old
33.9%
50.7%
25 to 34 yrs old
41.5%
60.3%
35 to 44 yrs old
45.2%
51.7%
45 to 54 yrs old
32.8%
49.5%
54 to 64 yrs old
22.4%
35.2%
65+ yrs old
10.3%
18.7%
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Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
Regional Migration
In Millions
Northeast
Net Population Change
By Region
(1990 to 2000 - millions of people)
-2.7
Midwest
-0.3
1
West
0.2
5
South
In Thousands
NY
NJ
MA
CT
PA
RI
ME
VT
NH
-1,716
-408
Net Population Change
For Northeast States
(1990 to 2000 - thousands of people)
-298
-228
-120 1
-43
4
22
43
36
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
Immigration
P e r c e n t Sh a r e o f U . S. J o b s F i l l e d B y F o r e i g n - B o r n
T ot al
10. 6%
13. 0%
21. 6%
P hysi ci ans
27. 0%
41. 1%
M edi cal Sci ent i st s
54. 5%
16. 2%
M at hemat i ci ans & Comput er Sci ent i st s
20. 5%
16. 9%
Comput er P r ogr ammer s
E ngi neer s
20. 8%
1996
11. 7%
16. 4%
2001
14. 9%
Col l ege T eacher s
21. 6%
14. 6%
17. 3%
Heal t h & Nur si ng A i ds
Const r uct i on T r ades
10. 7%
16. 3%
23. 5%
Const r uct i on Labor er s
32. 9%
31. 3%
P r i vat e Househol d Ser vi ces
Food Ser vi ce Wor ker s
37. 1%
18. 2%
22. 1%
37
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
New Hampshire Migration
 The trend of positive net-migration into NH continued through
2001
NH Migration, Top States and Total
1995 - 2001
State
In
Out
Net
California
11,068
10,491
577
Connecticut
11,862
7,314
4,548
Florida
17,494
26,081
-8,587
Maine
23,076
24,364
-1,288
113,105
66,727
46,378
New York
17,759
11,009
6,750
Vermont
16,846
15,446
1,400
300,326
249,120
51,206
Massachusetts
Total for NH
38
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
New Hampshire Migration
 Net migration from MA into NH may slow in the future,
as the number of people aged 25-64 years will only grow
3% (2005-2015), down from 9% (1990-2000)
 MA is still expected to lose 815,000 people by 2025, one
of the largest losses in the country
39
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
New Hampshire Post-Secondary Performance
 NH has one of the lowest high school completion rates in New England,
but has an average rank when compared nationally
 NH does a better job at sending its high school freshmen to go on to
college
High School to College Rate
2002
State
Percent
Rank
Connecticut
48%
8
Maine
43%
16
Massachusetts
54%
3
New Hampshire
44%
14
Rhode Island
47%
9
Vermont
40%
25
40
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
Post-Secondary Education in New Hampshire
 NH growth in post-secondary degrees per capita has been below the
national average
Growth in Degrees Per Capita Conferred
1990 to 2000
State
Connecticut
Associate's
Degrees
Bachelor's
Degrees
-12.1%
2.6%
14.4%
10.5%
-24.5%
-7.8%
8.5%
3.4%
Rhode Island
-2.8%
-8.5%
Vermont
16.8%
-1.1%
9.7%
4.1%
Maine
Massachusetts
New Hampshire
US
41
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
Post-Secondary Education in New Hampshire
 But NH produces a large number of graduates per capita
Degrees Conferred Per 1,000 Population
YR 2000
Associate's
Degrees
Rank
Bachelor's
Degrees
Rank
Connecticut
1.3
47
4.4
29
Maine
1.7
31
4.4
26
Massachusetts
1.7
36
6.7
6
New
Hampshire
2.5
13
6.3
8
Rhode Island
3.4
4
8.0
2
Vermont
2.6
12
7.9
3
US
2.0
NA
4.4
NA
State
 And is among the top 5 states with a high percentage of college
freshmen from outside of the state
42
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
New Hampshire College Student Migration
 NH ranks second in the nation for in-state residents
who attend college out-of-state
By State of Residence
Fall 2000
Percent
Rank
Connecticut
43%
5
Maine
39%
6
Massachusetts
28%
15
New Hampshire
50%
2
Rhode Island
33%
10
Vermont
49%
3
Region
36%
U.S.
16%
43
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
Mobility Creates Competition for Graduates
Percent of People Nationally Who Move Out of State
(by education level)
45%
37%
19%
High School
Degree
College
Degree
Advanced
Degree
44
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
College Student Migration Patterns
 The top 4 reasons why NH high school graduates do not
attend USNH:




Major not offered
They want to experience a different environment
Better academic reputation
Not the right location
 College graduates migrate to states with:





Higher job growth
Lower unemployment
Higher pay
Lower housing costs
Better amenities
 Price-quality issues
45
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
Migration Patterns
 Nationally, 81% of students who graduate from home state
institutions live in their home state after four years, compared
to only 52% of those who go out-of-state for their postsecondary education
 A 2002 point-in-time query from a NH data base found that
78% of NH students attending NH post-secondary schools
remain in NH during the first few years after graduating. after
a small decline, this number increases to 91% returning within
16 years after graduation
 The query also found that 56% of NH students attending nonNH post-secondary schools returned to NH shortly after
graduating; this number steadily increased to 88% returning
within 16 years after graduation
46
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
Higher Education Costs Increasing
 Nationally, over the last two decades, the cost of attending
public and private colleges has grown more rapidly than
inflation and faster than family income
 In NH, tuition and fees at public four-year colleges and
universities increased by 52% over the last decade – the
biggest increase in New England - to the highest costs: $5,557
 The median family income in NH over the same decade
increased by 19%
 NH’s tuition and fees at private four-year institutions increased
by 17%, to $18,105, which is about average for New England
47
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
Government Resources are Declining
 Recession created State budget deficits
 Uncertain, subdued recovery
 Fiscal conservatism
48
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
Traditional Relationships Disappearing
Mobility
Rapid Change
Lack of Community
Life as Byte-Sized Pieces
49
Challenges of the 21st Century Economy
New Economy Requires New Types of Relationships
 Listserv, for people with common interests
 eBay, for buyers and sellers
 Just-in-time inventory management, for businesses
 Distance learning, for students and workers
 On-line licensing, for government
50
Forum
Direction
Forum Strategic
Strategic Direction
51
Forum Strategic Direction
Strategic Partnerships Connect NH Students
to NH Businesses
Challenges












Demand for more educated workers
High mobility, especially among college
educated
Shortages in critical fields
Fast-paced changing economy
Need for special skill sets
Need for continuous education
Increasing numbers of non-traditional
students
Aging population
Immigration
Migration
Access and Affordability
Declining Government Resources
The Benefits of Partnerships

More likely to attend NH schools

More likely to stay in NH

More likely to return to NH

More financial resources to increase
access to post-secondary education

Better educational opportunities

Meets the changing educational needs of
students and business

Makes NH businesses more competitive
52
Forum Strategic Direction
The Forum helps businesses:
 Learn what NH educational institutions offer
 Identify opportunities to connect to NH students, their
future workforce
 Suggest what NH educational institutions should offer
 Connect with other businesses that may have shared
needs
 Develop, attract, and retain well-educated workers to
meet their needs
53
Forum Strategic Direction
The Forum helps educators:
 Learn what the NH marketplace needs
 Expand opportunities for students
 Make their intellectual work relevant to NH businesses
 Generate new curriculum and educational approaches
54
Forum Strategic Direction
The Forum helps government:
 Learn about business/higher education partnerships and
efforts
 Find ways to leverage funds most to help New
Hampshire students, institutions, and businesses
 Shape public policy to develop, attract, and retain welleducated workers
55
Forum Strategic Direction
Examples of Types of Partnerships
Internships
Apprenticeships
Scholarships
Customized Degree Programs
Contract Training/Education
Cooperative Education
Distance Learning
Curriculum Development
Faculty Internships in Business
Executive-On-Loan Appointments
Research Initiatives
Student/Employee Recruitment
College Credit for On-Job Training
Technology Transfer Programs
Industry Advisory Groups
Networking Events
Clearinghouse
Joint Advocacy
56
Forum Strategic Direction
Types of Partnership Activities
 Information gathering and promotion
• They exist
• Not well-known nor easily accessible
 Expanding existing partnerships
 Use “third party” Forum to energize and expand
 Identifying and developing new opportunities
 Forum “place” to identify new opportunities
57
Implementation and Next Steps
58
Implementation and Next Steps
 Get working partnerships going
 Engineering/Science/Technology
 Quality Educators
 Federal Higher Education Act Reauthorization
 Get the Forum message out
 Get on and stay on State government leaders’ agenda
 Get Forum content up to speed
59
Implementation and Next Steps
 Wrap up, roll out, implement, measure, quality educator
Task Force recommendations (1/03)
 Develop/launch/measure initiative to expand
engineering/technology connections between business,
higher education, and government (Commence work
December 2002)
• Identify members of the Board with interest to form a Task
Force
• Identify additional industry/education experts and
stakeholders
• Supporting research
• Define the work and how to expand existing efforts such as
Project Lead The Way and Dual Admissions programs
• Promote, implement, measure
60
Implementation and Next Steps
 Investigate the creation of an industry advisory group in
healthcare to expand connections of existing programs
and to propose, agree, implement, and measure outcomes
(Q1-2003)
 Develop a joint advocacy position on Federal reauthorization of the Higher Education Act of 1965 (merit
awards, Pell Grants, loan and debt burden issues,
performance measures, graduation rates)
• Host discussions
• Policy briefing
• Joint advocacy
61
Implementation and Next Steps
 Refine external promotional materials (Q1-2003)
•
•
•
•
•
Evolve talking points and power point presentation (12/03)
Develop Press & Media Kit (12/02)
Finalized 4-page Case Statement (12/02)
Complete Higher Education Economic Impact Study (1/03)
Get on the web
 Board of Governors to speak to business, education, and
government audiences on need for Forum and actions taken
(Q1-2003)
• Board members identify opportunities to speak (2 per member)
• Identify 10 key spokespeople willing to become familiar with the
Forum’s talking points and to deliver the message
• Complete 30 speaking engagements during Q1-2003
• Collect names and ideas to expand partnerships at speaking
engagements
62
Implementation and Next Steps
 Implement media strategy & communications plan (Q12003 & beyond)
• Speaking Engagements
• Media and Editorial Boards
• Radio and TV Talk Shows
 Develop/Implement government relations strategy to get
on and stay on State government leaders’ agenda (Q42002 & beyond )
 Host Reception at BAE Systems with Patrick Callan
“Measuring Up 2002” (11/13/02) (Attend and Bring a
Colleague)
63
Implementation and Next Steps
 Host Legislative Breakfast 1/23/03 – Higher Education
Economic Impact Study (Attend and Bring a Colleague)
 Build out Forum “members” through speaking engagements,
surveys, industry advisory groups, promotional opportunities,
web presence (Q1 & Q2 2003)
 Create an inventory of existing innovative business/higher
education partnerships to include in Forum promotional
materials and to promote (Q1-2003) – Request College
Presidents/Business Leaders to submit examples based on a
Forum template
64
Implementation and Next Steps
 Create user-friendly access to existing partnerships for
students, educators, business, and government in New
Hampshire (Q2 & Q3 2003)
 Showcase one partnership example at the January(?)2003
Governors’ Meeting
 Track supply/demand trends to identify areas of
opportunity for the Forum to act as a catalyst to increase
connections and opportunities
•
•
•
•
Survey businesses
Survey educators
Survey best practices
Track labor market data trends
65
Sources & Notes
Sources & Notes
Information Drives the Economy
Source: “10 Driving Principles of the New Economy,” Business 2.0, March 2000.
Education Fuels the Economy
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, “Educational Attainment – Full-Time, Year-Round Workers, 25 Years Old and Over by Mean
Earnings and Sex, 2000 Dollars.”
Notes: Nationwide data; “HS Diploma” includes equivalency.
Growth in Share of More Highly Educated Workers
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
Notes: Residents 25 years old and over.
More Post-Secondary Degrees Are Needed
Source: “Challenges Facing the American Workplace: The American Workplace Report,” Employment Policy Foundation,
2002, Figure 57, at 36.
Notes: “College Degrees” refer to baccalaureate degrees.
New Hampshire Faces Shortages in Critical Fields
Nursing:
Sources: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education
Data System (IPEDS), “Completions” Surveys; New Hampshire Employment Security, Economic and Labor Market
Information Bureau, “New Hampshire Employment Projections by Industry and Occupation, Base Year 1998 to Projected
Year 2008,” January 2001; “Proposal to US Department of Labor H-1B Technical Skills Training Grant,” Workforce
Opportunity Council, April 22, 2002, at 3.
66
Sources & Notes
Sources & Notes
New Hampshire Faces Shortages in Critical Fields
Teaching:
Sources: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education
Data System (IPEDS), “Completions” Surveys; New Hampshire Employment Security, Economic and Labor Market
Information Bureau, “New Hampshire Employment Projections by Industry and Occupation, Base Year 1998 to
Projected Year 2008,” January 2001; “Teacher Shortage in NH: A USNH Report and Response, White Paper,” June 19,
2002 at 4; New Hampshire Department of Education, Division of Program Support, Bureau of Credentiality, “New
Certificate Issues” and “Number Who Are Employed in Public School,” (Revised Date) September 24, 2002; New
Hampshire Retirement System.
7 out of 10 Fastest Growing Occupations in NH
Require an Associates Degree or More
Source: New Hampshire Employment Security, Economic and Labor Market Information Bureau, “New Hampshire
Employment Projections by Industry and Occupation, Base Year 1998 to Projected Year 2008,” January 2001, at 38.
Many of the Occupations in NH Adding the Most New Jobs
Do Not Require a Post-Secondary Degree
Source: New Hampshire Employment Security, Economic and Labor Market Information Bureau, “New Hampshire
Employment Projections by Industry and Occupation, Base Year 1998 to Projected Year 2008,” January 2001, at 33 and
41; “meeting the Challenge: Higher Education and the New Economy in New Hampshire,” Ross Gittell and Brian
Gottlob, February 2001, at 7.
Notes: New Hampshire Employment Security, Economic and Labor Market Information Bureau, projects that about 37%
of all new jobs created in NH will require at least a two-year college degree, while Gittell and Gottlob believe that 50%
of all new jobs will be for college-educated workers, based on their analysis.
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Sources & Notes
Sources & Notes
Businesses Need Workers with Special Skill Sets
Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education
Data System (IPEDS), “Completions” Surveys.
Aging Population
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, historical population data and “Projections of the Population, By Age and Sex, of States:
1995 to 2025.”
Non-Traditional Students
Sources: U.S. Department of Education; “Lifetime Learning Survey,” George Mason University and the Potomac
KnowledgeWay, June 1998; U.S. Department of Education, Office of Educational Research and Improvement,
National Center for Education Statistics, Statistical Analysis Report, “Participation Trends and Patterns in Adult
Education: 1991 to 1999,” February 2002, Table B3, at 71.
Notes: College-educated workers surveyed were aged 30-55 and out of school for at least ten years. Trends in career
changes cut across all industries and all kinds of degrees earned. Adult education activities include adult basic
education, English as a Second Language course, apprenticeship programs, some programs leading to a formal
(typically college) credential, courses taken for work-related reasons, and non-work related courses. Full-time
participation in post-secondary credential programs by those aged 16-24 is not counted as an adult education activity.
Adults are defined as civilian, non-institutionalized individuals aged 16 or older who are not in elementary or
secondary education.
Regional Migration
Source: The Washington Post, “The Northeast’s Shifting Labor Supply,” July 22, 2002 at A3.)
Immigration
Source: Barron’s, “New Melting Pot,” September 2, 2002, at 17-19, based on Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Sources & Notes
Sources & Notes
New Hampshire Migration
The trend of…
Source: “Economic Perspectives for New England and New Hampshire,” Presentation by Denis Delay to the NH
Business & Industry Association, September 25, 2002.
New Hampshire Migration
Net migration… and MA is still…
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, “Projections of the Population, By Age and Sex, of States: 1995 to 2025.”
New Hampshire College Student Migration
Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, "Enrollment in Postsecondary
Institutions, Fall 2000 and Financial Statistics, Fiscal Year 2000," NCES 2002-212, by Laura G. Knapp et al, Table 21.
Notes: All First-Time, First-Year Degree / Certificate Seeking Students Enrolled in Title IV Degree-Granting
Institutions, by State of Residence: Fall 2000; Ranks reflect the 50 states and the District of Columbia
Mobility Creates Competition for Graduates
Source: Kodrzychi, Y.K., “Migration of Recent College Graduates: Evidence of the National Longitudinal Survey of
Youth,” New England Economic Review, January/February 2001, at 15.
Notes: Percentage reflects all first-time, first-year degree / certificate seeking students enrolled in Title IV degreegranting institutions in the Fall of 2000. Percentages vary depending on whether or not students graduated from high
school in the last 12 months and on the type of institution they attend (e.g., private, public, 2-year, 4-year). The NLSY
(a project of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics) is based on a nationally representative sample of about 6,000 persons
who were 14 to 22 years old in 1979 and were interviewed once a year until 1994 and once every other year thereafter.
69
Sources & Notes
Sources & Notes
Migration Patterns
Source: The New Hampshire Forum on Higher Education’s Draft Mission Statement, August 9, 2002; New Hampshire
Higher Education Assistance Foundation’s Network Migration Report, September 11, 2002 (DRAFT – not yet publicly
available).
College Student Migration Patterns
Sources: Postsecondary Education Opportunity, Senior Survey; Kodrzycki, Yolanda K., “Migration of Recent College
Graduates: Evidence from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth,” New England Economic Review,
January/February 2001, at 18.
New Hampshire Post-Secondary Performance
Source: “Measuring Up 2002, the State-by-State Report Card for Higher Education,” The National Center for Public
Policy and Higher Education, "State Comparison Results: Raw Scores Participation."
Notes: Data in table reflect high school freshmen enrolling in college within 4 years in any state. The rankings
reported here are generally representative of how NH ranks in the region and the nation. However, estimates of high
school completion rates and college participation rates vary significantly depending on which populations are included
in the analyses and which years are looked at. For example, “Measuring Up 2002” found that NH had the lowest
public and private high school completion rate of any New England state, at 86%, and ranked 35th nationally, while
“Postsecondary Education Opportunity” found that NH had the second lowest public high school completion rate of
any New England state, at 74%, and ranked 17th nationally. As another example, “Dashboard Indicators: Higher
Education in New Hampshire, Fall 2001" reports that the ratio of college-bound seniors to high school graduates was
82% in 1999, the second highest of any New England state and well above the lowest rate of 64% in Vermont. In
comparison, “Postsecondary Education Opportunity” found that NH’s rate of public and private high school graduates
going on to college
70
Sources & Notes
Sources & Notes
New Hampshire Post-Secondary Performance (Notes continued)
was 59%, ranked 23rd nationally, while a survey of NH's graduating high school class of June 2001 found that 71% of
those graduating were continuing on to a postsecondary institution. Finally, "Meeting the Challenge" (Gittell and
Gottlob) indicates that the percent of NH high school graduates going on to post-secondary institutions is about 66%,
described as "average" but lower than NH's economic peer states.
Post-secondary Education in NH
NH growth…
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Digest of
Education Statistics, 1993 (Table 236) and 2001 (Table 251), based on Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System
(IPEDS), "Completions" Survey.
Post-Secondary Education in New Hampshire
But NH produces…
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Digest of
Education Statistics, 1993 (Table 236) and 2001 (Table 257) based on Integrated Postsecondary Education Data Systems
(IPEDS) “Completions” Survey; U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Digest of
Education Statistics, “Enrollment in Postsecondary Institutions, Fall 2000, and Financial Statistics, Fiscal Year 2000,”
National Center for Education Statistics, Digest of Education Statistics 2002-212, Laura G .Knapp et al, Table 21.
Notes: Ranked best to worst, 50 states and D.C.
Higher Education Costs Increasing
Source: "Losing Ground - A National Status Report on the Affordability of American Higher Education," The National
Policy Center for Public Policy and Higher Education, 2002, at 22-30.
Notes: All dollar amounts and percentage increases are adjusted for inflation. Figures for annual tuition and fees at
public four-year institutions are for 1992 through 2001, those for private four-year institutions are for 1991 through
2000, and those for annual median family income for four-person families are for 1991 through 2000.
71
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Project Team
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