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Navigating the Numbers: Greenhouse Gas Data and International Climate Policy COP11 December 5, 2005 Climate and Energy Program World Resources Institute Acknowledgements • Data providers – – – – – CDIAC RIVM IPCC IEA World Bank – – – – – UNDP U.S. EPA U.S. EIA UNFCCC Houghton • Funding providers • U.S. EPA, Government of Norway, Wallace Global Fund, Prospect Hill Foundation Data – Policy Linkage Working assumptions: – Information is the first step to solving any problem – Better information → better decisions – “Delivery system” matters 1. CAIT 2. Navigating the Numbers report Climate Analysis Indicator Tool (CAIT) • A web-based information and analysis tool on global climate change developed by WRI. CAIT includes: – Data on all greenhouse gases (GHGs) and sources, plus other policy-relevant data and indicators – Data for 186 countries, plus regions – Analysis tools (e.g., trend, sector, or gas analysis) • Policy neutral • 4,000 + registered users Navigating the Numbers • Objectives: – Convey wealth of GHG data in digestible form • Country-level data (Part I) • Sector-level data (Part II) – Identify policy-relevant insights from the data (Parts I and II) Part I: Country-level data • Indicators – Absolute, per capita, intensity • Time periods – Present, past, and future trends • Emissions “Context” – Drivers: GDP, population, fuel mix, efficiency, structure, trade, fossil fuel reserves, etc. – Socio-economic context: development indicators Part II: Sector-level data • Organize data: sector, end-use, gas GHG Flow Diagram: Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Part II: Sector-level data • Organize data: sector, end-use, gas • Identify and evaluate key sectors – Absolute, per capita; past and future trends – Sector “context” data: • Company-level production levels (e.g., iron, aluminum) • Trade flows, investment, MNC presence • GHG measurement and attribution issues • International cooperation assessed across six criteria Policy-Relevant Implications • • • • • Global trends Big emitters Emission caps and developing countries Formulaic approaches to commitments Sectoral cooperation Policy-Relevant Implications • • • • • Global trends Big emitters Emission caps and developing countries Formulaic approaches to commitments Sectoral cooperation Global CO2 Emissions Growth Projected Future GHG Emissions Growth % Percent change from 2000 Policy-Relevant Implications • Global trends • Big emitters • Emission caps and developing countries • Formulaic approaches to commitments • Sectoral cooperation Largest Emitters: Developed & Developing Most Countries Contribute Little to GHG Buildup Top 25: GHG Emissions Population GDP Top 25: Extreme Diversity: Diversity of Approaches Needed Policy-Relevant Conclusions • Global trends • Big emitters • Emission caps and developing countries • Formulaic approaches to commitments • Sectoral cooperation Fixed targets: challenging in the context of massive uncertainty Projected CO2 Emissions Growth to 2025 Policy-Relevant Conclusions • Global trends • Big emitters • Emission caps and developing countries • Formulaic approaches to commitments • Sectoral cooperation Historical Contributions: Major Data Constraints Cumulative CO2 Emissions, Comparison of Different Time Periods Emissions per Capita: Consensus? GHG Emissions per Capita Fuel mix affects CO2 emissions Electric Power Sector 7% 10% 2% 5% 5% 10% 15% CO2 “Imports”: Change in CO2 emissions if accounting is on the basis of domestic consumption 15% 20% 17% Trade affects CO2 emissions -12% China Russia -16% -11% UK USA Germany S. Korea France -20% Japan -15% Canada -7% India -10% -6% -5% Australia 0% Population Growth affects CO2 Emission trends Policy-Relevant Conclusions • • • • Global trends Big emitters Emission caps and developing countries Formulaic approaches to commitments • Sectoral cooperation International Sectoral Cooperation • Did not address different “forms” of sectoral cooperation • How important is the sector? [% global GHGs] • Underlying rationale for sectoral cooperation – Promote participation – Avoid “leakage” – Promote even regulatory playing field (competitiveness) • How conductive to international cooperation? [6 criteria] • Simple grading system: “+” “–” or no grade. Summary of Sectoral Analysis Sectoral Cooperation • “Sector-only” model is unlikely be effective • Comprehensive agreements can have: – “Carve outs” [aviation] – Special sectoral provisions [LUCF] – Complementary sectoral agreements • Analysis helps reveal: – Where to target investment, technology, and policy – Kyoto’s perceived success and failure Conclusions • Global trends are in the wrong direction • Address GHGs in context of big emitting countries and sectors – Int’l cooperation, investment, technology • No single indicator tells a complete story • Data does not point directly toward a solution – Nature and scale of problem – Diverse national circumstances Thank you! Kevin Baumert [email protected] Tim Herzog [email protected] Jonathan Pershing [email protected]