Transcript A Brief History of Modeling Exercises in Nepal

Nepal’s Strategies for Pro-poor Growth:
Modalities and Lessons
Yuba Raj Bhusal
Member Secretary
National Planning Commission, Nepal
New Delhi
March 05, 2012
Contents
1. Socio-economic Indicators
2. Status and Incidence of Poverty
3. Pro-poor Growth Strategies and
Priority Areas in the TYP
4. Recent Efforts
5. Lessons Learned
1. Socio-economic Indicators
a) Social Indicators
i. Land area:
147,181 sq. km.
(arable land: 16.07% only).
ii. Population: 26.6 m (2011), @ 1.4%
(urban 17%, rural 83%).
iii. HDI position: 142
• Literacy rate:
63.7%
• Net enrolment ratio (primary schools) 93.7%
• Infant Mortality rate (1000):
44.54
• Child mortality rate (1000):
30
• Use of contraceptives
48%
• Safe drinking water provided
80%
• HIV infected (persons):
64,000
• Life expectancy (years):
67
•
Provision of electricity (household)
56.1%
b) Economic Indicators
i. Occupation:
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Agriculture and allied activities
74%
Industrial
11%
Service
15%
Unemployment rate
2.1%
Labor force
18 m
(about 2 m gone for overseas employment)
ii. Contribution to GDP
• Agriculture
• Manufacturing
• Service
• GDP per capita PPP USD
• Per capita GDP USD
• Per capita Gross National Disposable Income USD
35%
13%
52%
1200
642
797
iii. Economic Growth rate
iv. Inflation rate:
v. Exchange rate:
vi. International Trade
• Imports:
• Exports:
3.5 (2011),
(estimated 5.1 for 2012)
8.6%
(USD1= NPRs. 80)
USD 5.26 bn
USD 901.9 m
(major exports are cotton garments, woolen carpets, oil seeds,
pulses/lintel, hides/skin, niger seeds, jute/jute products, handicrafts,
leather goods, tea, paper/paper products, silverware, jewellery, tooth
paste, polyester yarn, toilet soap, pashmina, herbs, vegetable ghee)
• Current account balance:
USD -449 m
2. Status and Incidence of Poverty
a) People living below poverty line
25.16% (2011)
(42% in 1996, 31% in 2003, Consumption based Ginicoefficient declined to 0.33 from 0.41).
b) Incidence of Poverty:
• Rural Areas: 27.43%; Urban Areas: 15.46%;
• Ecological Zones: Mountains (42.27%) & Hills (24.32%);
• Development Regions: Far- west (45.61%) & Mid –west
(31.68%);
• Caste/Ethnicity: Severe in Dalits & hill Ethnic Minorities;
• Family: Large sized families and Women headed
households;
• Occupation: small holders (Agriculture) and informal
sector workers.
c) Incidence of Poverty further aggravated by:
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Climate change impacts
Accelerated deforestation
Use of agricultural land for settlements
Natural disasters (earthquake, fire, floods, lightening, landslides,
torrential rainfall, high winds, hailstorms, cold wave, epidemics) also
impose severe consequences.
• The consequences of earthquake of Sept 2011 and
other disaster within the last10 months:
440 persons died, 470 injured, 118 missing; 30,000
buildings, houses and cowsheds damaged; many cattle
died; almost 33 districts were affected.
• Trafficking in human being (India, gulf countries) a
serious threat to human right.
3. Pro-poor Growth Strategies and Priority
Areas in the Three Year Plan, TYP (2010-13)
a). From 1956 to date
Nepal embarked on Planned Development since 1956.
Up to now 11 plans already implemented and the 12th
Plan (TYP) is in progress in line with MDGs (The Tenth
Plan was itself a PRSP).
The Thirteenth Plan to be prepared within a year.
b). Socio-economic indicators show encouraging
results though need to rectify some ignored
areas of concern.
c). The Three Year Plan (2010-13) is in progress.
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i. In order to achieve MDGs/ targets by 2015 and
LDC commitments, the TYP focuses on:
generating dignified and gainful employment
opportunities,
reducing economic inequalities,
securing regional balances,
eliminating social deprivations,
improving the living standards of the people,
achieving sustainable economic growth, and thus
reducing absolute poverty from 25.16% to 21%.
ii. Objective and Strategies
• Objective
Enable people to feel change in their livelihood
and improve the quality of life by supporting
poverty alleviation and establishment of
sustainable peace through employment centric,
inclusive and equitable economic growth.
• Strategies
The six strategies to achieve pro-poor
growth are as follows:
Six
Strategies
Priority Areas
Priority Areas (contd…)
iii. Economic Growth and Poverty Target
• Achieve 5.5% annual average economic growth rate (agriculture to
grow by 3.9% and non-agriculture sector by 6.4% so as to achieve
growth rate of per capita income by 3.5% and employment to
increase by 3.6%).
• Inflation rate to limit at 7.0 percent per annum,
• The population living below absolute the poverty line is targeted to be
reduced from 25.2% to 21%.
• Net enrolment ratio (primary schools) 98%
• Infant Mortality rate (1000):
38
• Child mortality rate (1000):
23
• Use of contraceptives
57%
• Safe drinking water provided
85%
• HIV infected (persons):
64,000
• Life expectancy (years):
67
• Provision of electricity (household) 65%
Budgetary Constraints (2011-12):
Deficit and Source of Financing (Rs. billion)
Total Budget
Rs. 384.9
a. Revenue
241.77
Tax
209.2
Non-tax
32.57
b. Principal Refund
5.93
Total Deficit
a. Foreign Grant
b. Foreign Loan
c. Domestic
Borrowing
137.19
70.13
29.65
37.41
iv. Operational Modalities
Two pronged strategy has been adopted for the pro-poor
growth: One focusing on mega projects and second on
community based small projects and targeted
programmes (top-down and bottom up processes).
Some of the major programs and emphasis are as follows:
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Emphasis on agriculture sector
•
Generate employment opportunities
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Promote self-employment
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Targeted programs for poor people
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Establishment of Poverty Alleviation Fund;
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Micro enterprise promotion and development
•
Provisions of micro finance,
Operational Modalities (contd…)
•
Community forestry programs
•
Emphasis on the use of labour intensive technology in
small infrastructure development
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Women development programs
•
Tourism development
•
Social Inclusion as national agenda
•
Social protection programs (3% of total budget): (pension
scheme for elderly, single women, disabled persons, and
endangered races like raute people, reduced age-bar for pension to
Dalits/Karnali’s persons)
•
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Affirmative actions
Promote employment-centric investment
4. Recent Efforts:
As per the right-based approach envisaged in the Interim
Constitution 2007, Paris Principles, AAA, Busan
commitments on aid effectiveness the GoN has been
recently undertaking some assertive policies and
programs.
• Social Inclusion a national agenda and the Bill,
• Gender Responsive Budgeting (19 +46%=65),
• Climate change and environment focused
budgeting (NAPA, LAPA also prepared),
• Karnali Employment Program,
• Employment Guarantee Bill (100 days
employment or 50%allowance),
• PAF as oversight agency for all poverty related
programs,
• Immediate Action Plan for Economic Development 2012
focusing on national pride projects and other priority
projects such as East-West/ North-South Highways,
Fast-track, Electric railways, airports, mega irrigation and
hydro projects etc. with timeline, benchmarks and welldefined responsibilities,
• Immediate Relief Program 2011,
• Action Plan of Good Governance 2012,
• Strong CIAA Act, Money Laundering Bill, Judicial uphold
to zero tolerance to corruption,
• Media & civil society activation,
• Public auditing of publicly funded programs
• Periodic progress review attended by the PM,
• National Development Volunteer Services to
bridge human resource gap in the rural and
remote regions,
• Internet service in all the Villages,
• Gender Responsive, pro-poor budgeting,
• Global and Regional level push: Nepal as the Chair
of LDCs, BIMSTEC/ SAARC Ministerial level Meetings
on Poverty Alleviation in Kathmandu, Global Mountain
Alliance meeting in Kathmandu,
• Road networks across the country.
Gender Responsive & Pro-Poor Budget (2011-12)
Rs Billion
Budget
Amount
Directly Gender Responsive
Indirectly Gender
Responsive
Gender Neutral
Total
Budget
Pro-Poor budget
Neutral
Total
Percent
73.33
19.05
176.22
135.35
384.90
45.78
35.17
100.00
Amount
186.63
Percent
48.49
198.27
51.51
384.90
100
5. Lessons Learned
1.
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7.
Identification of the poor living below the poverty line/poorest
of the poor households be made so as to channelize
poverty-focused programs;
Additional attention needed for disaster related programs.
GoN needs earmark some percent of the annual budget
while formulating periodic/annual plans, yet no contingency
plans to address DRR;
Rural/remote areas expect more attention of the government
and development partners to bring sensible programs to
them;
Palatable population control measures to be applied;
Gender equality to be further accelerated in rural/ remote
regions particularly in the far west;
Targeted programs also need third party independent
evaluation.
Need to focus on domestic employment generation through
creating investment friendly climate.
THANK YOU !