Transcript Diapositiva 1 - Conoscere Eurasia

4° FORUM ITALO-RUSSO A VERONA
COOPERAZIONE PER LA MODERNIZZAZIONE E L’INNOVAZIONE
Why Innovation Matters in Italy
Gregorio De Felice
Chief Economist
Verona, October 28, 2011
The current scenario for Italian firms
 Given the modest economic expansion of the Italian and European
economies, the main engine of growth for Italian firms is a further
improvement in international market shares.
 Many efforts are currently directed towards New Industrialized Countries.
 Notwithstanding the country is lagging behind in terms of growth, a deep
transformation of Italian manufacturing sector is under way.
 The number of really outstanding firms is increasing, as a result of a
tough selection process.
 Innovation is the key driver of growth and success for many Italian firms
on foreign markets.
The “new world” is already here
Shares on world import
100%
80%
64.6%
60%
56.8%
40%
43.2%
35.4%
20%
0%
1990
1995
2000
Advanced
2005
2010
NIC
Advanced: USA, Eurozone, Japan, UK, Canada, Australia, Sweden, Switzerland
NIC: Brazil, China and Hong Kong, India, Russian Federation, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Turkey, Singapore, Korea, Thailand,
Taiwan, Philippines, Indonesia, South Africa, Mexico, OPEC . Source: Intesa Sanpaolo on OEF data
Forecast
2013
Italy: one of the most industrialized countries ...
Per capita industrial production
(current US$)
35500
30500
25500
20500
15500
10500
5500
500
Germany
Italy
Japan
USA
New EU
countries
Russia
Source: Centro Studi Confindustria on national sources and Global Insight
3
World
Brazil
China
India
...with many industrial clusters
Technological clusters
Traditional districts
Source: Intesa Sanpaolo. “Monitor dei distretti”
4
A significant trade balance surplus
Trade balance in industrial goods*
(2009. current billion US$)
400
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
-300
-400
China
Germany
Japan
Italy
Brazil
France
* Excluding fuels and lubricants; agricultural goods. food& beverages
Source: Intesa Sanpaolo on UNCTAD
5
India
United
Kingdom
USA
Italy's good performance on foreign markets
 Despite the impact of emerging countries' imposing growth on international
trade, Italy has maintained its share of global exports. In the past decade,
only Germany has done better among the advanced countries.
Global export market share
(at current prices)
Germany
(-0.1%)
2010
(-0.7%)
Italy
France
2000
(-1.6%)
United Kingdom
(-1.7%)
Japan
(-2.3%)
(-3.5%)
USA
0
2
4
6
Source: ICE
6
8
10
12
14
Among world leaders...
Trade performance index by Unctad / Wto *
Rank
Country
No of first
positions
No of second
positions
No of third
positions
1
Germany
7
2
0
2
Italy
3
4
0
3
Netherlands
2
1
0
4
Sweden
1
0
3
5
Australia
1
0
0
6
China
0
3
0
7
France
0
1
3
8
Russia
0
1
0
9
Finland
0
1
0
Denmark
0
1
0
10
* Ranking out of 189 countries in 14 sectors
Composite Index made up of 5 indices: trade balance; per capita export; world market share; diversification of each macrosector; diversification of geographical markets.
7
...in many products
Trade performance Index by Unctad/Wto - Italy
Sector
Ranking
Textiles
Leather products
Clothing
Basic manufacturers
Non-electric machinery
Electric machinery and components
Miscellaneous manufacturing
Processed foods
Transport equipment
Chemicals
Wood products
IT& consumer electronics
Fresh foods
Minerals
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
6
18
20
23
24
29
52
* Ranking out of 189 countries in 14 sectors
Composite Index made up of 5 indices: trade balance; per capita export; world market
share; diversification of each macro-sector; diversification of geographical markets.
8
Repositioning on high quality products has contributed ...
Italian exports by price/quality ranges
(% breakdown)
40.0
2001
2009
35.0
30.0
25.0
Low
Medium
Source: Intesa Sanpaolo on BACI data
9
High
... in part linked to greater innovative ability...
 The ratio of patents filed by Italian companies at the European Patent
Office (EPO) to employees has increased significantly since 2000.
especially in Italy's industrial districts.
3.5
Propensity to patent in Italian manufacturing
(patent applications for every 1,000 employees)
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1998-02
2003-07
Total manufacturing
Source: Intesa Sanpaolo on EPO and ISTAT
10
Industrial districts
...higher than EU average
Total number of EPO patent applications by billion EUR of Business
enterprise sector's R&D expenditure (BERD) - 2008
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Spain
France
EU27
Source: Eurostat
11
Germany
Italy
A strong product innovation capacity
Enterprises that have new or significantly improved products new to
the market (% 2008)
25,0%
20,0%
15,0%
10,0%
5,0%
0,0%
Spain
France
Germany
Source: Eurostat
12
Italy
Switching to mid-tech specialization
The evolution of Italian manufacturing structure
(sales at constant prices)
High tech
Machinery & electrical equipment
Means of transport
Intermediate goods
Household system
Fashion system
Other consumption goods
4.3
6.5
6.0
6.2
25.7
25.3
28.1
30.5
6.9
6.9
7.8
23.4
23.9
3.7
4.7
7.4
24.2
23.1
5.1
4.3
17.7
14.5
12.1
11.1
18.8
19.3
17.6
18.9
1984
1994
Source: Intesa Sanpaolo – Prometeia
13
2004
2014
Many highly competitive regions ...
GDP
per capita(2)
Geographical
areas
Industrial
vocation (3)
Export propensity
index (4)
(Index numbers: Italy=100)
1
Top 9 Italian regions(1)
119
124
134
2
Germany
112
118
179
3
United Kingdom
110
80
85
37
4
France
103
66
93
5
Italy
100
100
100
(1) Emilia Romagna. Friuli Venezia Giulia. Lombardia. Marche. Piemonte - Valle d’Aosta. Toscana. Trentino Alto Adige. Veneto.
(2) GDP per capita in 2008 Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)
(3) Industrial value added (net of constructions) as a % of total value added in 2009
(4) Exports/GDP
Source: Eurostat. Istat
14
...with high R&D investments...
Business Enterprise R&D as a% of GDP
(Top 9 Italian regions for R&D expenditures)
Toscana
2008
Campania
2000
Lazio
Italy
Veneto
Italy
Germany
France
Spain
Liguria
Friuli-Venezia Giulia
Emilia-Romagna
0.65
1.86
1.32
0.74
Lombardia
Piemonte
0,0
Source: ISTAT
0,3
0,6
0,9
1,2
1,5
...sustaining a technological balance surplus
Technological balance (2007-09; million euro)
Veneto
Abruzzo
-404
-99
-92
Umbria
Emilia Romagna
-42
-35
Trentino AA
Friuli VG
20
22
Campania
Lazio
Toscana
54
112
Liguria
Lombardia
118
792
Piemonte
Italy
-800
995
1,377
-400
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
Technological balance of payments corresponds to cross-border technological receipts minus technological
payments. Source: UIC