Transcript Migration in Ireland: Trends and Economic Impacts

Migration in Ireland:
Trends and Economic Impacts
Yvonne McCarthy
Format of Presentation
• Background to migration story: Irish economic
development
• Why migration trends in Ireland are interesting
• The trends; characteristics of immigrants in
Ireland
• Labour market experience of immigrants in
Ireland
• Labour market impacts of immigrants in Ireland
Irish economic development:
From Poverty…
MAY 1997
1988
..to Shining Light in a decade
MAY 1997
The Celtic
Tiger
Europe’s
shining light
The Economist
1988
1997
Average Growth in GNP
Performance spectacular in terms of
historical experience
10
8
4
2
20
05
-1
0*
20
00
-0
5
19
95
-0
0
19
90
-9
5
19
85
-9
0
0
19
80
-8
5
%
6
* Forecasts from ESRI “Medium Term Review 2005-2012”
Employment
Strong employment growth
7
6
5
4
% 3
2
1
0
-1
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate Declining
20
%
15
10
5
0
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
Inflation
Until 2000, Inflation had remained low
6
5
4
%3
2
1
0
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
* Inflation measured as CPI inflation
Public Finances
Public Finances have moved into surplus
5
4
3
2
1
%
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
Summary of Economic
Developments
1980s
•
•
•
•
•
•
Low growth
High unemployment
High Inflation
Towering public debts
Negative net migration
Per capita income less
EU average
1990s
•
•
•
•
•
High growth
Robust Labour market
Low inflation
Healthy public finances
Positive net migration
(from 1996)
• One of the richest
countries in EU
Why is Ireland’s migration story
interesting?
1. Speed of inflow:
Census 2002 = 7%
Census 2006 = 10%
2. Ireland has a long history with migration
3. Immigrants in Ireland are highly
educated
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
05
03
01
99
97
95
93
91
89
87
Net Migration (000s)
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
Composition of Inflows (%)
60
50
40
30
20
10
UK
EU
USA
Rest
EU13
05
20
03
20
01
20
99
19
97
19
95
19
93
19
91
19
89
19
19
87
0
EU10
Age Distribution (%) of Native and
Immigrant Adult Populations
(QNHS Q2 2004)
Age Group
Irish
All Immigrants
15-19
10.4
8.1
20-24
9.8
13.1
25-34
16.1
37.4
35-44
17.5
24.2
45-54
17.2
8.8
55-59
7.5
3.1
60-64
5.9
1.9
65+
15.6
3.4
No.
60,893
2,540
Source: Barrett and Bergin (2007)
Gender Distribution (%) of Native and
Immigrant Populations (Q2 2004)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Irish
Immigrant
Male
Female
Labour Force Status Distribution of Native
and Immigrant Labour Force Participants
Status
Irish
Immigrant
Employed, FT
78.3
78.2
Employed, PT
17.0
14.1
Unemployed,
Seeking FT
Unemployed,
Seeking PT
Marginally
Attached
3.5
5.9
0.6
1.2
0.5
0.6
Sector of Employment Distribution
(Selection of Sectors)
Sector
Irish
Immigrant
Agriculture
6.9
1.7
Manufacturing
15.0
15.7
Construction
11.5
8.4
Wholesale & Retail
14.3
11.0
Hotels & Rest.
5.2
14.0
Real Estate
7.9
12.2
Educational Attainment:
Labour Force Participants(%)
50
40
30
20
10
0
Irish
Less than Leaving Cert
Third Level Degree and Above
Immigrant
Leaving Cert and Non-Degree
Summary of Immigrant Characteristics
(Q2 2004)
• Most recent flows dominated by EU10
• Young relative to native population:
22 – 44 year olds: 70% versus 43%
• Higher unemployment rate than Irish
• Significant proportion employed in “Hotels
and Restaurants”
• Larger proportion of immigrants with 3rd level
qualification (37.9% versus 17.5%)
Immigrant Experiences in Labour
Market: Earnings
• Barrett and McCarthy (2006) examine the
earnings of immigrants relative to natives
in Ireland
• Using data from a nationally represenative
sample (EU-SILC) they find that
immigrants earn 18% less than
comparable natives
• The gap is more pronounced for
immigrants from non-English speaking
countries
Immigrant Experiences in Labour
Market: Occupational Attainment
• Barrett, Bergin and Duffy (2006) examine
the occupational attainment of immigrants
relative to natives in Ireland
• They find what they call an “occupational
gap” for non-UK and non-USA immigrants
• This means that immigrants are more
likely to be in lower grade occupations
than comparable natives
Immigrants Impacts
on the Labour Market (1)
• Barrett et al (2006) examine the impact of
immigrants on the Irish labour market
• Using a structural model of the Irish labour
market, where high-skilled and low-skilled
labour are assumed complements at the level
of the economy
• Assess impact of a non-national inflow of
72,000 comprising 85% high-skilled and 15%
low-skilled over a 10 year period
• Result: Skilled immigration has played a
significant positive role in the economy
Immigrants Impacts
on the Labour Market (contd.)
• Downward pressure on high-skilled wage (falls
by 6% in long run)
• Results in increased output, employment and
productivity; GNP about 3.5 – 3.7% higher;
Employment 2.5 – 2.6% higher
• Demand for low-skilled labour increases
• Low-skilled wages rise by 1% or unemployment
falls by 1.2%
• GNP per head 0.9 – 1.1% higher
Immigrants Impacts
on the Labour Market (2)
• Authors run a second simulation accounting
for occupational gap suffered by immigrants
• Increase in GNP now 2.8-3.0%
• Employment rises by 2.1%
• GNP per head rises by 0.4-0.5%
• Wages fall by 3.7- 3.9%
• Result: Still positive
Summary and Conclusions
• Ireland’s exceptional economic growth in recent
years has been accompanied by an influx of nonnationals
• On average immigrants in Ireland tend to be
younger and more highly educated than the native
population
• Despite this, immigrants tend to earn less than
comparable natives and be employed in
occupations that are not commensurate with their
skill levels
• Over time immigrants might assilimiate in the
market and these effects could disappear
Migration in Ireland:
Trends and Economic Impacts
Yvonne McCarthy