Transcript School Quality and Development

Ford School of Public Policy
Will U.S. Schools Drag Us
Down?
Eric A. Hanushek
Stanford University
Key Questions

Does it matter what students know?

How well is the United States doing?

What can be done to change things?
Answers to Key Questions



Yes. It matters a lot how much students
know.
Not so well. U.S. students are not
competitive internationally.
Improving teacher quality is key.


Nothing about schools is an important as highly
effective teachers.
Improving teacher quality meets with considerable
resistance.
Does it matter what students know?

Individual earnings



Close relationship to cognitive skills
Returns to attainment misleading
Economic Growth



Renewed attention
Education for All
Millennium Development Goals
Education Quality and Economic Growth
Quantity of Schooling
With quality control
Without quality control
How well is the United States doing?
6.0
Finland
Denmark
Germany
Iceland
Sweden
Norway
France
Italy
Netherlands
Korea
Belgium
Uruguay
Spain
Czech_Republic
Greece
Portugal
Switzerland
Brazil
Austria
OECD mean
Ireland
New_Zealand
Hungary
Israel
Argentina
Chile
United_Kingdom
United_States
Australia
Luxembourg
Slovak Republic
Poland
Tunisia
Mexico
Paraguay
Jamaica
Jordan
Malaysia
Thailand
Russian_Federa
Turkey
Indonesia
Philippines
Zimbabwe
years of attainment
Expected Schooling, 2003
Even developing countries go farther!
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
Mathematics Performance on PISA, 2003
Our competitors also learn more each year of school!
Hong Kong-China
Finland
Korea
Netherlands
Liechtenstein
Japan
Canada
Belgium
Macao-China
Switzerland
Australia
New Zealand
Czech Republic
Iceland
Denmark
France
Sweden
Austria
Germany
Ireland
OECD average
Slovak Republic
Norway
Luxembourg
Poland
Hungary
Spain
Latvia
United States
Russian
Portugal
Italy
Greece
Serbia
Turkey
Uruguay
Thailand
Mexico
Indonesia
Tunisia
Brazil
-1.5
-1.25
-1
-0.75
-0.5
-0.25
0
standard deviations from OECD average
0.25
0.5
0.75
Mathematics Performance on PISA, 2003
Our competitors also learn more each year of school!
Hong Kong-China
Finland
Korea
Netherlands
Liechtenstein
Japan
Canada
Belgium
Macao-China
Switzerland
Australia
New Zealand
Czech Republic
Iceland
Denmark
France
Sweden
Austria
Germany
Ireland
OECD average
Slovak Republic
Norway
Luxembourg
Poland
Hungary
Spain
Latvia
United States
Russian …
Portugal
Italy
Greece
Serbia
Turkey
Uruguay
Thailand
Mexico
Indonesia
Tunisia
Brazil
-1.5
-1.25
-1
-0.75
-0.5
-0.25
0
standard deviations from OECD average
0.25
0.5
0.75
Elements of U.S. past success

Strong economic institutions

Substitute quantity for quality

Better higher education

Skilled immigrants
Cost of Inaction



Assume future looks like history
Reform schools over 20 years
Consider gains for person born today
Annual Gains from 25 PISA-Points Improvement
(1/4 std. dev.)
60%
Percent addition to annual GDP
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
Year
2070
2080
2090
2100
2110
Annual Gains from 25 PISA-Points Improvement
(1/4 std. dev.)
60%
Percent addition to annual GDP
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
Year
2070
2080
2090
2100
2110
Finland
Korea
Japan
Netherlands
Canada
New Zealand
Australia
United Kingdom
Czech Republic
Belgium
Switzerland
Austria
Sweden
Ireland
France
Iceland
Germany
Denmark
Hungary
OECD
Slovak Republic
Norway
Poland
United States
Spain
Luxembourg
Italy
Portugal
Greece
Turkey
Mexico
% of Current GDP
Catching Up to Finland (PISA Top-Performer)
1000%
800%
600%
400%
200%
0%
Finland
Korea
Japan
Netherlands
Canada
New Zealand
Australia
United Kingdom
Czech Republic
Belgium
Switzerland
Austria
Sweden
Ireland
France
Iceland
Germany
Denmark
Hungary
OECD
Slovak Republic
Norway
Poland
United States
Spain
Luxembourg
Italy
Portugal
Greece
Turkey
Mexico
% of Current GDP
Catching Up to Finland (PISA Top-Performer)
1000%
$103T
800%
600%
400%
200%
0%
Finland
Korea
Canada
Japan
Netherlands
Australia
New Zealand
United Kingdom
Ireland
Czech Republic
Switzerland
Iceland
Sweden
Austria
Denmark
France
Belgium
Slovak Republic
Hungary
Norway
Germany
Poland
Spain
OECD
United States
Luxembourg
Italy
Portugal
Greece
Turkey
Mexico
% of Current GDP
Bringing Up the Bottom (All Students Reach
Minimum Proficiency of 400 PISA Points)
600%
400%
200%
0%
Finland
Korea
Canada
Japan
Netherlands
Australia
New Zealand
United Kingdom
Ireland
Czech Republic
Switzerland
Iceland
Sweden
Austria
Denmark
France
Belgium
Slovak Republic
Hungary
Norway
Germany
Poland
Spain
600%
OECD
United States
Luxembourg
Italy
Portugal
Greece
Turkey
Mexico
% of Current GDP
Bringing Up the Bottom (All Students Reach
Minimum Proficiency of 400 PISA Points)
$72T
400%
200%
0%
How Big Are These Effects?
Present Value (2010-2090)
OECD Total
U.S.
+25 PISA points (0.25 s.d.)
$114 trillion
$41 trillion
Equaling Finland
$260 trillion
$103 trillion
All reaching level 1
$193 trillion
$72 trillion
How Big Are These Effects?
Present Value (2010-2090)
OECD Total
U.S.
+25 PISA points (0.25 s.d.)*
$114 trillion
$41 trillion
Equaling Finland
$260 trillion
$103 trillion
All reaching level 1
$193 trillion
$72 trillion
*Equals ½ of the U.S.– Canada performance gap.
What can be done to change things?

Resource Solutions

Have not worked
Expenditure per Student and
Student Performance across Countries
Math performance in PISA 2003
550
Finland
Korea
2
Czech Rep.
R = 0.01
Ireland
Slovak Rep.
500
Poland
Hungary
R 2 = 0.15
Japan
Netherlands
Belgium
Canada
Switzerland
Australia
Iceland Denmark
Sweden France
Austria
Germany
Norway
Spain
USA
Portugal
450
Italy
Greece
400
Mexico
350
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
Cumulative educational expenditure per student
National Assessment of Educational Progress
(NAEP), age 17
320
310
Scale Scores
300
1970
1980
290
1990
1999
280
270
260
math
reading
science
Test subject
w riting
Public School Resources
1960-2000
Pupil-teacher ratio
Master’s degree
Experience
$/pupil (2006 $’s)
1960
1980
2000
25.8
18.7
16.0
23.5%
49.6%
56.8%
11
12
14
$2,541
$5,823
$8,691
Total Spending per Pupil
(2007 $’s)
$12,500
$10,000
$7,500
$5,000
$2,500
$0
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2005
Q: What is the average amount of money spent each
year for a child in public schools in your school district?
$12,000
$10,400
$10,000
$8,000
$6,000
$5,262
$4,000
$2,000
$0
Source: Howell & West, School Spending, Education
Next, Summer, 2008, p. 39.
Average Actual
Spending
Average Estimated
Spending
Q: Based on your best guess, what is the average annual
salary of a public school teacher in your state?
$50,000
$40,000
$30,000
$20,000
$10,000
$47,424
$33,054
Average Actual
Teacher Salaries
Average Estimate
from Survey
$0
Source: Howell & West, School Spending, Education Next,
Summer, 2008, p. 39.
Real Spending per Pupil:
Wyoming and U.S. Average
$15,000
$12,500
court decision
WY
$10,000
U.S.
$7,500
$5,000
1986
1991
1996
Wyoming
2001
U.S. average
2006
NAEP Performance of Whites,
Wyoming and U.S. Average
300
275
National average
250
Wyoming
225
200
4th
Read,
92-07
4th
Math, 9209
8th
Math, 9209
NAEP Performance of Hispanics,
Wyoming and U.S. Average
275
250
National average
225
Wyoming
200
175
4th
Read,
92-07
4th
Math, 9209
8th
Math, 9209
Teacher Quality as Key Element


Substantial evidence that teacher quality is
most important part of schools
Wide variation in effectiveness



Texas: 3-4 years of good teacher closes
achievement gap by low income
Gary: difference of best and worst = one year
Unrelated to common quality measures



Teacher graduate degrees
Experience*
Certification
The Cost of Bad Teachers
1.00
s.d. performance gain
Finland
0.75
Canada
0.50
0.25
0.00
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Percent deselected
high estimate of teacher effectiveness
low estimate of teacher effectiveness
12%
Changing Outcomes

Don’t trust simple “answers”

Need altered incentives

Need learning from experiences
Key Questions

Does it matter what students know?

How well is the United States doing?

What can be done to change things?
Answers to Key Questions



Yes. It matters a lot how much students
know.
Not so well. U.S. students are not
competitive internationally.
Improving teacher quality is key.


Nothing about schools is an important as highly
effective teachers.
Improving teacher quality meets with considerable
resistance.