Transcript AAAS R&D Program - Council of Colleges of Arts and Sciences

An Overview of the Federal
Budget for 2009
Kei Koizumi
March 13, 2008
for the CCAS Washington Seminar
AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Program
http://www.aaas.org/spp/rd
See the “What’s New” section for the latest updates; see
the “Seminars and Presentations” section for copies of
this presentation.
A COMMUNICATION
FORProgram
THE MACARTHUR INITIATIVE
AAAS
R&D BudgetPORTAL
and Policy
WELCOME TO THE 2009 BUDGET SEASON IN
WASHINGTON
 The President has proposed a $3.1 trillion budget for FY
2009.
 The budget deficit could approach a record $500 billion this
year and next year.
 To help control the deficit, the President proposes to keep
domestic appropriations flat, leaves war funding out of the
budget beyond January 2009, and proposes some cuts in
Medicare and Medicaid.
 Congress is working on its own 2009 budget this week, and
collecting public input for the upcoming 2009 appropriations
season.
Composition of the Proposed FY 2009 Budget
Total Outlays = $3.1 trillion
Net interest
Defense
discretionary
Other mandatory
[Defense R&D]
Medicaid
Nondefense
discretionary
Medicare
Social Security
Note: Projected Unified deficit is $407 billion.
Figures exclude most Iraq and Afghanistan military costs.
Source: AAAS, based on Budget of the United States Government FY 2009.
FEB. '08 © 2008 AAAS
[Nondefense R&D]
Trends in Discretionary Spending, FY 1976-2013
in billions of constant FY 2008 dollars
1200
1000
Total discretionary
800
Defense discretionary
600
400
Nondefense
discretionary
200
Data in fiscal years. Source: Budget of the United States Government, FY 2009.
FY 2008 data are estimates. FY 2009-2013 data are budget projections. FY 20092013 figures exclude Iraq and Afghanistan military costs.
FEB. '08 © 2008 AAAS
2012
2006
2000
1994
1988
1982
1976
0
A COMMUNICATION
FORProgram
THE MACARTHUR INITIATIVE
AAAS
R&D BudgetPORTAL
and Policy
THE 2009 BUDGET FOR R&D
 The American Competitiveness Initiative (ACI) continues for a
third year, with large increases for NSF, DOE Science, and the
NIST labs to catch up to a 10-year doubling track.
 Again, large increases for DOD weapons and NASA
spacecraft development, but also increases for most R&D
programs.
 The NIH budget would be flat, agricultural and environmental
R&D agencies would decline.
Total R&D by Agency: FY 2009 Proposed
Budget Authority in billions of dollars
DHS, $1.0
USDA, $2.0All Other, $5.2
NSF, $5.2
Total R&D =
$147.4 billion
(revised)
DOE, $10.5
NASA, $12.8
DOD, $80.7
HHS (NIH), $30.0
Source: AAAS, based on OMB R&D Budget Data and agency estimates
for FY 2009.
MARCH '08 REVISED © 2008 AAAS
FY 2009 R&D Request
Percent Change from FY 2008
DOE Science +21%
NSF +16%
DOT
DOD weapons
NASA
NIST
DHS
DOE defense
DOE energy
NIH
VA
NOAA
EPA
USGS
DOD "S&T"
USDA
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
Source: AAAS, based on OMB R&D data and agency estimates for FY 2009.
DOD "S&T" = DOD R&D in "6.1" through "6.3" categories plus medical research.
DOD weapons = DOD R&D in "6.4" and higher categories.
MARCH '08 REVISED © 2008 AAAS
5%
10%
15%
Trends in Federal R&D, FY 1976-2009 *
in billions of constant FY 2008 dollars
140
TOTAL R&D
120
100
development
80
60
research
40
20
facilities
Source: AAAS analyses of R&D in annual AAAS R&D reports. * FY
2009 figures are latest AAAS estimates of FY 2009 request. R&D
includes conduct of R&D and R&D facilities. Data to 1984 are
obligations from the NSF Federal Funds survey. GDP figures are from
OMB, Budget of the U.S. Government FY 2009.
MARCH '08 REVISED © 2008 AAAS
2008
2004
2000
1996
1992
1988
1984
1980
1976
0
Trends in Research by Agency, FY 1976-2009 *
in billions of constant FY 2008 dollars
60
NIH
50
NSF
40
DOD
30
DOE
20
NASA
10
USDA
All Other
Source: AAAS analyses of R&D in annual AAAS R&D reports.
* FY 2009 figures are latest AAAS estimates of FY 2009 request. Research
includes basic research and applied research. 1976-1994 figures are NSF
data on obligations in the Federal Funds survey.
MARCH '08 REVISED © 2008 AAAS
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
0
Trends in Federal Research by Discipline, FY 1970-2007
obligations in billions of constant FY 2008 dollars
$25
NIH biomedical
research
Engineering
$20
Physical Scis.
$15
All other life
sciences
Env. Scis.
$10
Math / Comp.
Scis.
Social Sciences
$5
Psychology
Other *
$0
1970
1976
1982
1988
1994
Life sciences - split into NIH support for biomedical research and all other
agencies' support for life sciences.
Source: National Science Foundation, Federal Funds for Research and
Development FY 2005, 2006 , 2007, 2008. FY 2006 and 2007 data are
preliminary. Constant-dollar conversions based on OMB's GDP deflators.
FEB. '08 © 2008 AAAS
2000
2006
* - Other includes research
not classified
(includes basic research and
applied research; excludes
development and R&D
facilities)
National Institutes of Health Budget by Institute, 1998-2009 *
(budget authority in billions of constant FY 2008 dollars)
30
NIAID
25
Heart Lung Blood
20
15
Cancer
10
Buildings and Facils.
5
All Other
Source: AAAS R&D reports from NIH budget documents 1998-2009. * 2009 is
latest AAAS estimates of FY 2009 request. Adjusted for inflation using OMB's GDP
deflators.
FEB. '08 © 2008 AAAS
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
0
National Institutes of Health
Research Project Grants
100%
40,000
Avg. Award Size
(2008=100%)
80%
30,000
RPG Success Rate
(%)
60%
20,000
# of RPG's (right
scale)
40%
10,000
20%
Source: NIH agency budget justification for FY 2009. Average
proposed award size $408,800 in FY 2008. Other years
adjusted for inflation.
FEB. '08 © 2008 AAAS
2009
2006
2003
2000
1997
1994
0
1991
0%
National Science Foundation Budget, FY 2000-2009
(budget authority in billions of constant FY 2008 dollars)
$7
$6
$5
NSF budget
$4
$3
NSF R&D
$2
$1
$0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: National Science Foundation, and latest AAAS estimates of FY 2009
budget. FY 2009 is budget request.
FEB. '08 © 2008 AAAS
2008
2009
NSF Budget by Directorate, FY 1998-2009
(budget authority in millions of constant FY 2008 dollars)
1,400
MPS
1,200
EHR
1,000
GEO
CISE
800
BIO
600
ENG
400
Polar
200
SBE
0
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Source: National Science Foundation data. FY 2009 figures are President's request.
CISE includes new Office of Cyberinfrastructure.
R&D and non-R&D components included in directorate budgets.
FEB. '08 © 2008 AAAS
2008
DOE Office of Science Programs, FY 1996-2009
(budget authority in millions of constant FY 2008 dollars)
1600
basic energy
scis.
1400
high energy
physics
1200
1000
nuclear
physics
800
600
bio. and env.
res.
400
fusion
200
adv.
scientific
computing
0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: AAAS Reports on R&D, various years, and DOE historical budget
documents. Adjusted for inflation using OMB's GDP deflators. BES includes
Spallation Neutron Source funds. BER includes earmarks for most years (not 2007
through 2009). FY 2009 figures are the budget request.
FEBRUARY '08 © 2008 AAAS
Trends in NASA R&D, FY 1995-2009 *
in millions of constant FY 2008 dollars
18000
Non-R&D
(Space
Shuttle)
Constellation
Systems
15000
12000
Space Station
9000
6000
All other
NASA R&D
3000
Aeronautics
Source: AAAS analyses of R&D in AAAS Reports VIIIXXXIII. * FY 2009 figures are latest AAAS estimates of FY
2009 request. Program budgets include associated
support costs.
R&D includes conduct of R&D and R&D facilities.
MARCH '08 REVISED © 2008 AAAS
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
0
Trends in DOD "S&T", FY 1994-2009 *
in billions of constant FY 2008 dollars
8
6
DOD "6.3"
4
DOD "6.2"
DOD "6.1"
2
Medical research
Source: AAAS analyses of R&D in annual AAAS R&D reports.
* - FY 2009 figures are latest AAAS estimates of FY 2009 request.
Medical research appropriated outside RDT&E; appropriated in "6.2"
accounts before 1999.
FEBRUARY '08 © 2008 AAAS
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
0
Federal R&D Funding to Colleges and Universities FY 1963-2005
Obligations by agency in billions of constant FY 2008 $
30
HHS
25
Other
20
DOE
15
NASA
10
DOD
5
NSF
0
1963
1968
1973
1978
1983
1988
Source: AAAS, based on NSF, Federal Science and Engineering Support to
Universities, Colleges, and Nonprofit Insitutions, FY 2005, 2007.
R&D includes research, development, and R&D facilities support. Constantdollar conversions based on OMB's GDP deflators.
FEB. '08 © 2008 AAAS
1993
1998
2003
Trends in Federal R&D as % of GDP, FY 1976-2009 *
1.4%
1.2%
TOTAL R&D
1.0%
0.8%
development
0.6%
research
0.4%
0.2%
facilities
Source: AAAS analyses of R&D in annual AAAS R&D reports. * FY
2009 figures are latest AAAS estimates of FY 2009 request. R&D
includes conduct of R&D and R&D facilities. Data to 1984 are
obligations from the NSF Federal Funds survey. GDP figures are from
OMB, Budget of the U.S. Government FY 2009.
MARCH '08 REVISED © 2008 AAAS
2008
2004
2000
1996
1992
1988
1984
1980
1976
0.0%
Shares of Total World R&D, 2007
All Other, $123
India, $42
US, $353
China, $175
S Korea, $38
Germany, $65
France, $44
Japan, $144
U.K., $40
Other EU, $101
Source: Battelle, Global R&D Report, 2007, from Battelle, OECD, and
R&D Magazine data. Projections for 2007, by performer nation. * *calculated using purchasing power parities, in millions of dollars.
DECEMBER '07 © 2007 AAAS
Total World R&D =
U.S. $1,124 billion**
Total National R&D as % of GDP, 1991-2006
3.4
Japan
3.0
U.S.
2.6
Korea
2.2
Germany
1.8
EU-27
1.4
China
Source: National Science Foundation, National Patterns of R&D Resources and
OECD, Main Science and Technology Indicators. Data not available for all
nations for all years. DECEMBER '07 © 2007 AAAS
2003
2000
1997
1994
1991
1.0
A COMMUNICATION
FORProgram
THE MACARTHUR INITIATIVE
AAAS
R&D BudgetPORTAL
and Policy
WHAT’S NEXT?
 Congress considers a $102+ billion 2008 war supplemental
soon.
 Congress is considering a FY 2009 budget resolution with
spending targets, which could boost domestic appropriations by
up to $24 billion over the President’s request. But the President
has threatened to veto any appropriations that exceed his
request.
 If Congress doesn’t have more money, Congress will trim ACI
and other R&D increases to restore funding to health, training,
education, law enforcement, and grants programs the President
would eliminate or cut.
 The Appropriations Committees will try to write and pass 12 2009
appropriations bills, but Congress may delay some or all of them
until the next President takes office.
A COMMUNICATION
FORProgram
THE MACARTHUR INITIATIVE
AAAS
R&D BudgetPORTAL
and Policy
FOR MORE INFORMATION…
The AAAS R&D web site is
www.aaas.org/spp/rd
The AAAS Forum on
Science and Technology
Policy is 8-9 May 2008
in Washington, DC