Transcript Folie 1 - Yemenwater

Yemen’s Water & Sanitation Sector
Selected Key Sector Issues
Update January 2006
Gerhard Redecker
KfW-Office Sana’a
January 2006
Contents
Some reminders
- Water and poverty in the PRSP
- Water and relevance in MDGs
- Water sector benchmarks
- Water demand and supply pattern
Sector finance
- Real cost of water and the Yemeni scenario
- NWSSIP investment plan and finance needs
- MDG financial needs assessment
- NWSSIP & MDG sub-sector finance allocation
- NWSSIP & MDG annual funding requirements
- MWE draft investment budget 2006
- Present vs. NWSSIP & MDG urban unit costs
Agriculture – what is at stake?
- Employment and economy
- Land distribution
- Cropping and productivity
- Water use
Water and poverty in the PRSP
… poor water management creates poverty… (World Bank CWRAS, Jan 2005)
…efficient and equitable water
resources management is critical to
poverty reduction…
Urban water and sanitation
 scarcity of water resources
 low service coverage
 water pollution
Agriculture / Irrigation
 water resource capture unsustainable
 water mining practices anti-poor
 water rights pattern exacerbate
inequalities
 agricultural water use key to reduce
poverty
3
Environment
 environmental degradation (erosion)
drives poverty
 water pollution affects the poor more
 climate change affects the poor more,
since they much depend on rain-fed
agriculture
 environmental health problems affect
the poor most
… all these “externalities” are hidden
costs imposed by the better off on the
poor…
Note: The PRS progress report for 20032004 makes little or no reference to
respective achievements
Water and relevance for MDGs
MDG 2 / Target 3:
Ensure that by 2015,
children everywhere, boys
and girls alike, will be able
to complete a full course of
primary schooling
Other
Trade
MDG 1 / Target 1:
Halve, between 1990 and
2015, the proportion of
people whose income is
less than 1 dollar per day
Industry
...for
other
Use
Government
Schools
Mosques
Agroindustry
MDG 1 / Target 2:
Halve, between
1990 and 2015, the
proportion of
people who suffer
from hunger
Irrigation
Agricult.
...for
Food
WATER
Domestic
Urban
Climate
Change
Domestic
Rural
...for
Nature
Groundwater
4
MDG 7 / Target 10:
Halve, by 2015, the
proportion of people
without sustainable
access to safe drinking
water
...for
People
Rainfed
Agricult.
Fauna &
Flora
MDG4 / Target 5:
Reduce by two-thirds,
between 1990 and
2015, the under-five
mortality rate
MDG 7 / Target 9:
Integrate the principles of
sustainable development into country
policies and programs
and reverse the loss of
environmental resources
MDG 7 / Target 11:
By 2020, have achieved
a significant improvement in the lives of at
least 100 million slum
dwellers / Indicator 31:
urban population with
access to improved
sanitation
Targets in service coverage
Water Sector Benchmarks
100%
Rural WS Target
90%
Rural SAN Target
Urban Water
Coverage
Achievement
47%
Population Covered
80%
70%
Urban WS Target
Urban SAN Target
60%
50%
40%
30%
Urban Sanitation Coverage
Achievement
23%
20%
10%
0%
Base
Year
1994
5
Base
Year
2000
Year
2004
PRSP
Target
2005
NWSSIP
Target
2009
MD
Target
2015
(MP)
Strategic
Vision
2025
Water demand and supply pattern (NWSSIP)
Water Demand & Supply Pattern
120
100
80
Minimum
health impact
threshold
60
40
20
0
Target Urban l/c/d
Big Cities
6
Realistic Urban l/c/d
Central Montainous Zone
Target Rural l/c/d
Coastal Zone
Realistic Rural l/c/d
Other Areas (dispersed)
Sector finance (1)
Real cost of water and the Yemeni scenario
Coincides with
BMZ Sector
Concept
Not
specified
or
calulated
Environmental
Externalities
Full
Cost
Economic
Externalities
Opportunity
Cost
Urban
Subsector Goal
Capital
Charges
NWSSIP
Benchmark
Operat'l.
Benchmark
O&M
Cost
Full
Economic
Cost
Full
Supply
Cost
Source: Global Water Partnership TAC Background Paper No. 2 (Water as a Social and Economic Good) / own elaboration
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Sustainable Value in Use of Resource
General Principles for Cost of Water
The Yemen Reality of Urban Water
Sector finance (2)
NWSSIP investment plan and finance needs
NWSSIP 2005-2009 Finance Needs
NWSSIP 2005-2009
Funding
Scenario
(Total USD
1.538 million)
Cost 21 Gap 19
ENVIR
Subsectors
IRRIG
GoY
$ Gap
Cost 28 Gap 22
RWSS-Sw
RWSS-Hw
Cost 454 Gap 275
Cost 48 Gap 23
UWSS-Sw
Cost 750 Gap 130
Donors
550 mn
36%
Goy
UWSS-Hw
429 mn
IWRM
28%
0
8
Donors
$ Gap
559 mn
Cost 190 Gap 70
36%
Cost 47 Gap 20
100
200
300
400
500
USD million
600
700
800
Sector finance (3)
MDG financial needs assessment
MDG Water Sector Needs Assessment
(2005-2015)
Rural
Cap. Bldg.
Subsectors
Urban
SAN O&M
SAN Capital
WS O&M
WS Capital
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
USD m illion
9
Sector finance (4)
NWSSIP & MDG sub-sector finance allocation
NWSSIP 2005-2009 Subsector Finance Shares
IRRIG
12%
ENVIR
1%
IWRM
3%
RWSS-Sw
2%
UWSS-Hw
49%
RWSS-Hw
30%
UWSS-Sw
3%
MDG Costing Module Finance Shares
(Total 4.124 USD million)
Cap. Bldg.
4%
Water Supply
41%
Sanitation
55%
10
Sector finance (5)
NWSSIP & MDG annual funding requirements
Subsector Finance Needs p.a.
(NWSSIP vs. MDG NA Comparative Matrix)
O&M
MDG
Environment
NWSSIP
Irrigation
IWRM
Sanitation Investment
Water Supply Investment
Rural Investment
Urban Investment
USD million
"Softw are" / Cap. Bldg.
Total Investment
0
11
50
100
150
200
250
300
Sector finance (6)
MWE draft investment budget 2006 vs. NWSSIP
Authority
MWE
GoY
Costsharing
External
Selffinance
327,000
GARWSP
EPA
3,400,000
Total
327,000(1%)
50,000
500,000
3,950,000(15%)
164,000
164,000(1%)
NWRA
60,196
154,800
925,000
1,139,995(4%)
NWSA
2,296,000
104,000
346,000
2,746,000(11%)
Sana’a LC
1,440,000
680,000
3,600,000
Aden LC
1,300,000
200,000
1,240,000
Ta’iz LC
1,347,000
23,000
95,000
1,045,000
Hodeidah LC
Rural
15%
Environment
1%
2,940,000(11%)
1,465,000(6%)
478,000
276,000
140,000
Seyun LC
553,500
441,000
1,500,000
2,494,500(10%)
Ibb LC
430,000
250,000
600,000
1,280,000(5%)
Hajjah LC
300,000
Al Bayda LC
354,000
13,659,695
Central
1%
5,720,000(22%)
200,000
1,210,000
Mukalla LC
2006 MWE Investment Budget Shares
144,000
1,943,000(7%)
Water
Resources
4%
1,350,000(5%)
300,000(1%)
2,318,800
9,851,000
11,000
365,000(1%)
355,000
26,184,495(100%)
Urban
79%
Mixed emotions
•
Urban bias continues with 79% of sector investment share, rural water grossly neglected
•
No recurrent budget information available
•
GoY share as per NWSSIP was USD 85.8 mn p.a., this budget only allocates USD 83.8 mn, thus the
USD 111.8 mn annual finance gap is not addressed at all; in addition, inflation is not factored in
•
However, MWE budget is not inclusive of public investment outside MWE (such as MAI), so total
sector related budget is definitely higher, but not known
•
Specified donor contributions (external finance) is incomplete; donor MTEF is not finished
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Sector finance (7)
Present vs. NWSSIP & MDG urban unit costs
Gross Cost per House Connection
5,235
End 2005 Sa'ada Tender 3)
3,190
1,500
1,000
Mid 2005 MDG needs assessment 2)
2,250
Mid 2004 NWSSIP maximum 1)
1,500
Water
Sanitation
900
600
Mid 2004 NWSSIP minimum 1)
0
1,000
USD
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
MDG and NWSSIP finance needs scenario unrealistic
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1)
Includes 1% pa inflation on USD basis to the 2009 horizon, differentiates
geographic and density
2)
No inflation for the full 2015 horizon
3)
Gross cost incl. consultants and 20% technical / financial contingencies
6,000
Agriculture (AG) and irrigation – what is at stake? (1)
Employment and economy
• AG value added share in GDP declining from 21.4% in 1993 to 15% in 2004
• AG value added growth rate increasing from 4.4% in 1993 to 5.9% in 2003
• AG economically active population share declining from 60.1% in 1993 to 50.4% in
2003
• AG represents 54.1% of total employment in 2004, and supports 2/3 of rural
livelihood
• AG female employment share increased from 39.9% in 2003 to 42.9% in 2003
• Average annual production value of the agricultural rural household was USD
1.270 in 2002
• High value crops are not labor-intensive: 1990-1999 labor productivity increase
marginal, but land productivity increase > 50% (mainly due to irrigation)
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Agriculture (AG) and irrigation – what is at stake? (2)
Land distribution
• Agriculture in Yemen is undertaken on some 1.08 million hectares; average size of
operational holding was 1.36 has in 2002
• Concentration process of land holdings: more land for less, crowding out the small
Distribution of Landholdings 1991-2001 Spatial Distribution of Farming in Yemen
marginal farmers; From 1993 – 2000, average
holding size decreased by 28.5%,
and
arable land per person has dropped 35% from 1985 to 2000 (Ø 900 sqm in
60
70
2000)
50
Percent
60
50
• 40Size of used land correlates with food
insecurity of households: at < 1000 sqm
40
holding, food insecurity is highest (23%);
some sources indicate general food
30
30
insecurity above 50% for all
20
20
10
• In 2004, 11% of cultivated land is under
Qat
0
10
Highlands
Eastern
Tihama
The coast
0
plateau
< 0.5 ha
0.5 to < 2 ha
% Holders 1991
15
2 to < 5 ha
% Holders 2001
5 to < 20 ha
% Area 1991
=> 20 ha
% Area 2001
% cult. Area
% Farms
Agriculture (AG) and irrigation – what is at stake? (3)
Cropping and productivity
• From 2002-2004, 24% growth of agricultural products added value was recorded
- 2004 at an Ø 2.4% per
Yemen
Cultivated
Allocation
• Cereal production volume
shareofstill
above Land
50%,inbut
declining
year since 1995; share in added value insignificant;
meanwhile, > 80% of cereals
others
vegetables
imported
5%
7%
•Aggregate citrus production increased 20% pa between 1991 and 2003
fruit
25% 9%
of
•In 2004, Qat stands for
AG labor force, 41% (USD 1.6 bn) of overall AG
products added value (COCA)
cereals
fodder
50%
• Lion’s share of AG added11%
value produced by water intensive
crops (for each kilo
of bananas, Yemen exports 24 liters of virtual water)
Added Value Increase of Mayor
crops
cashCrops
CROP
YER bn 2003 YER bn 2004
%18%
incr.
% in 2004
Qat
283
312
10.2%
62.9%
Fruits 1)
70
77
10.0%
15.5%
Vegetables
46
50
8.7%
10.1%
Grains
27
29
7.4%
5.8%
Forage
13
14
7.7%
2.8%
Others
14
14
0.0%
2.8%
TOTAL
453
496
9.5%
100.0%
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1) 2004 Added Value of Mayor Fruits
CROP
YER bn 2004 % in 2004
Oranges
25
32.5%
Grapes
21
27.3%
Bananas
6
7.8%
Dates
3
3.9%
Others
22
28.6%
TOTAL
77
100.0%
Agriculture (AG) and irrigation – what is at stake? (4)
Water use
• Most of cultivated area still directly rain-fed (55%), but on a declining path (since
1975 its share reduced to almost half), and with little or no sector support
• Share of (rain-fed) spate and spring-fed irrigation low, but mostly stable
• Groundwater irrigation share exploded from 5 – 45%
• Lift irrigation monetized agricultural economy in detriment of marginal farmers
• Non-food crop Qat consumes 30% of irrigation water
• Overall irrigation efficiency low (< 40%)
• Small holdings most affected by water poverty, since in Yemen water rights follow
land rights
• Declining water tables boost investment cost for pumping, favoring the larger
farmers
• Traditional water management practices acceptance on the decline
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