Transcript April 2, 2009 - Alberta Electric System Operator

Reliable Power
Future Demand and Energy
Outlook (2008 – 2028)
Reliable Markets
Assumptions, Methodology and Processes
Reliable People
April 2, 2009
9 am – 11am
Agenda
Introduction
Doyle Sullivan
Director, Regulatory
Long-Term Load Forecast
• Future Demand and Energy Outlook
(2008 – 2028)
• Area Studies
• Recent Economic Events – Impact on long
term load forecast?
• 2009 Forecast Schedule
LaRhonda Papworth
Supervisor, Long-Term Load Forecasting
Confidence Bands
Steven Everett
Economic Analyst
Forecasting Group
Rob Baker
Manager, Forecasting
Questions
Doyle Sullivan
Rob Baker
LaRhonda Papworth
Steven Everett
Closing Remarks
Rob Baker
2
What is the AESO?
• Established in 2003 through the EUA to
integrate Power Pool of Alberta and
Transmission Administrator
• Performs “Independent System
Operator” function
• Non-profit organization independent of
all other electricity market participants
• Governed by independent board
appointed by the Minister of Energy
• Regulated by Alberta Utilities
Commission
 Transmission Tariff
 Transmission Development
 AESO Rules
• Operation of the AESO funded through
Pool Trading Charge and Transmission
Tariff
3
Our Core Business
 Markets: develop and operate
Alberta’s real-time wholesale energy
market to facilitate fair, efficient and
open competition
 Transmission System
Development: plan and develop the
transmission system to ensure
continued reliability and facilitate the
competitive market and investment in
new supply
 Transmission System Access:
provide system access for both
generation and load customers
 System Operations: direct the
reliable operation of Alberta’s power
grid
4
AESO Forecasting Group
Introduction
• Rob Baker, Manager Forecasting
• LaRhonda Papworth, Supervisor Long Term Forecasting
– Steven Everett, Economic Analyst
– Jenni Fontaine, Forecast Analyst
• Ashikur Bhuyia, Supervisor Mid Term Forecasting
– Mike Wu, Senior Forecasting Engineer
All can be contacted at [email protected]
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Reliable Power
Long-Term Load Forecast –
FC2008
Reliable Markets
Reliable People
LaRhonda Papworth
Supervisor, Long-Term Load Forecasting
Long-Term Load Forecast Topics
 How long-term load forecast is used
 Future Demand and Energy Outlook (2008 – 2028)
•Why?
•How?
 Recent Economic Events – impact on long-term load
forecast
 2009 Forecast Schedule
7
How: Example of How Long Term
Load Forecast Is Used
 Transmission Planning
 Long-Term Adequacy assessments
 Tariff Billing Determinants
 Loss Forecasting
 Input into WECC studies
 Area Studies
– Area or region of interest is identified
– Work with DFOs, TFOs, Transmission
Planning, industry and mapping
consultants, customers to evaluate current
long-term load forecast and adjust for
recent and detailed information
– Identify possible long-term load
expectations
8
Why does the AESO produce a
Long Term Load Forecast?
Electric Utilities Act
Transmission Regulation
Part 2
Transmission System Planning
Transmission planning - forecasting need
8 In forecasting the needs of Alberta under section 33 of the Act, the ISO
a)
Must anticipate future demand for electricity, generation capacity, and appropriate reserves
required to meet the forecast load so that transmission facilities can be planned to be available in
a timely manner to accommodate the forecast load and new generation facilities,
b)
Must make assumptions about future load growth, the timing and location of future generation
additions and other related assumptions to support transmission planning,
Electric Utilities Act
Duties of Independent System Operator
k)
to collect, store and disseminate information relating to the current and future electricity needs of
Alberta and the capacity of the interconnected electric system to meet those needs, and make
information available to the public,
Emphasis added
9
How Long-Term Load Forecast is
Created
T-Losses, DLosses, UFE
6%
Residential
13%
Oilsands
12%
Farm
3%
Commercial
19%
Industrial
(w/o
Oilsands)
47%
Source:
2008 Sector GWh
ERCB Table 11: Electric Energy Distribution Sales and Number of Customers, 2008
AESO metered volumes
AESO estimation of load served by on-site generation (behind-the-fence load)
10
Customer Sector Energy
Forecast Methodology
Industrial*
Customer Sector
Commercial*
Customer Sector
Residential*
Customer Sector
Farm*
Customer Sector
Load Served by On-Site Generation (Behind-the-Fence)**
Transmission Connected Customer Load**
A Picture of Alberta Internal Load (without Losses)
by Following Customer Sectors:
*Source: ERCB
**Source: AESO
•
•
•
•
•
Industrial (without Oilsands)
Oilsands
Commercial
Residential
Farm
11
Economic Inputs –
Alberta GDP
400,000
Provincial Outlook 2008
Outlook Autumn 2008
350,000
Outlook Winter 2009
300,000
250,000
200,000
20
27
20
25
20
23
20
21
20
19
20
17
20
15
20
13
20
11
20
09
20
07
20
05
150,000
20
03
Alberta GDP (basic 2002 $million)
Long-term load forecast based on economic inputs from March 2008
Source: Conference Board of Canada
12
Industrial (w/o Oilsands) Sector
Energy Forecast
Model Inputs:
Alberta Mining GDP
Lagged Sector Sales
70,000
FC2008
Actuals
Energy (GWh)
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
20
27
20
25
20
23
20
21
20
19
20
17
20
15
20
13
20
11
20
09
20
07
20
05
20
03
10,000
Source: Conference Board of Canada, AESO
13
Oilsands Sector
Energy Model
Oilsands Energy = Annual Mining Production * Mining kWh/barrel +
Annual In-Situ Production * In-Situ kWh/barrel
5,000
4,500
AESO *Adjusted* CAPP In-Situ
26.0
AESO *Adjusted* CAPP Mining
24.0
4,000
22.0
kWh/bbl
20.0
3,000
2,500
2,000
18.0
16.0
28
20
20
24
20
20
22
20
20
18
20
16
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
28
20
26
20
24
20
22
20
20
20
18
20
16
20
14
20
12
20
10
20
08
20
06
20
04
20
02
Source:
14
8.0
12
0
10
In-Situ
08
10.0
06
500
04
Mining
02
12.0
1,000
26
14.0
1,500
20
000 bpd
3,500
Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers –
Crude Oil Forecast, Markets & Pipeline Expansions – June 2008
AESO adjustments included
14
Energy (GWh)
Oilsands Sector
Energy Forecast
35,000
FC2008
30,000
Actuals
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
20
27
20
25
20
23
20
21
20
19
20
17
20
15
20
13
20
11
20
09
20
07
20
05
20
03
0
Source: AESO
15
Commercial Sector
Energy Forecast
Model Inputs:
Alberta GDP
Lagged Sector Sales (one-year)
Constant
22,000
FC2008
Actuals
Energy (GWh)
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
20
27
20
25
20
23
20
21
20
19
20
17
20
15
20
13
20
11
20
09
20
07
20
05
20
03
10,000
Source: Conference Board of Canada, AESO
16
Residential & Farm Sectors
Energy Forecast Models
100
7,300
Population
FC2007
FC2008
10yr Average
7,200
7,100
Customers
60
000s
kWh/customer
80
7,000
6,900
40
20
0
6,800
1993
1996 1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014 2017
2020
2023
2026
-20
20
28
20
25
20
22
20
19
20
16
20
13
20
10
20
07
20
04
20
01
19
98
19
95
19
92
6,700
-40
Model for Residential:
Model for Farm:
Model Inputs:
Average Use Per Customer
multiplied by
# Customers (function of Population)
Model Inputs:
Alberta Agricultural GDP
Heating Degree Days
Constant
17
FC2008 Sector Totals
T-Losses, D-Losses, UFE
Oilsands
Industrial (w/o Oilsands)
Commercial
Farm
Residential
2008 Actuals
FC2007
160,000
140,000
120,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
20
27
20
25
20
23
20
21
20
19
20
17
20
15
20
13
20
11
20
09
20
07
20
05
0
20
03
GWh
100,000
18
Past Forecast Results - Energy
Year
Actuals
(GWh)
Year over
year
change
FC2005
FC2006
FC2007
FC2008
2006
69,370
-
-1.6%
+1.2%
-
-
2007
69,660
+290
-3.4%
-1.5%
-1.2%
-
2008
69,946
+286
-7.7%
-4.9%
-4.8%
-1.3%
Source: AESO
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Past Forecast Results – Winter Peak
Year
Actuals
(MW)
Year over
year
change
FC2005
FC2006
FC2007
FC2008
2005/06
9,580
-
+0.5%
-
-
-
2006/07
9,661
+81
-4.0%
-3.8%
-
-
2007/08
9,710
+49
-5.6%
-5.4%
-3.2%
-
2008/09
9,806
+96
-8.1%
-8.0%
-6.2%
-0.3%
Source: AESO
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How: Energy to Individual Metering
Points
Oilsands
Industrial
(w/o Oilsands)
Project Information
Load Forecast Assumptions
DFO Information
Project Information
Load Forecast Assumptions
~500
Metering
Points
DFO Information
Historical Growth Rates
Annual
Energy
Forecast
Project Information
Commercial
DFO Information
Historical Growth Rates
Farm
Residential
21
Recent Economic Events . . .
What do the economic events of the last 6 months mean to
the results of the 2008 Future Demand and Energy Outlook?
• The economic models used for the customer sector
forecasts are based on 20+ years of historical data –
containing an number of past economic downturns
• Numerous opinions exist regarding severity and time length
of this economic downturn
• Important to remember that the scope of this report is longterm …5 …10. . . 15…20 years.
BUT it is prudent for the AESO to perform analysis to quantify
what the impact could be, short-term and/or long-term
22
Forecasted AIL Winter Peak
20,000
FC2007
FC2008
Autumn 2008 Update
Winter 2009 Update
18,000
2028: 927 MW
MW
16,000
2018: 675 MW
14,000
12,000
10,000
20
28
20
26
20
24
20
22
20
20
20
18
20
16
20
14
20
12
20
10
20
08
20
06
20
04
20
02
8,000
Source: AESO
23
2009 Forecast Schedule
• DFO substation level information to the AESO – April 2009
• Customer Sector Models completed – May 2009
• Reconciliation of Long-term forecast with Mid-Term Forecast
– May 2009
• Conference Board of Canada Provincial Outlook 2009 –
delayed 2 months to May 2009
• Publication of Long-term load forecast - September 2009
• Stakeholder Presentation of 2009 Report – Sep/Oct 2009
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Reliable Power
Confidence Bands
Reliable Markets
Reliable People
Steven Everett
Economic Analyst
Confidence Intervals
Alberta Internal Load (AIL) Energy Confidence Intervals
165,000
FC2008
Energy (GWh)
145,000
P2.5
P97.5
125,000
P10
105,000
P90
85,000
65,000
20
27
20
25
20
23
20
21
20
19
20
17
20
15
20
13
20
11
20
09
20
07
20
05
20
03
20
01
45,000
Source: AESO
26
Confidence Intervals
Alberta Internal Load (AIL) Winter Peak Demand Confidence Intervals
22,000
FC2008
Peak Demand (MW)
20,000
P2.5
18,000
P97.5
16,000
P10
P90
14,000
12,000
10,000
20
27
20
25
20
23
20
21
20
19
20
17
20
15
20
13
20
11
20
09
20
07
20
05
20
03
20
01
8,000
Source: AESO
27
Confidence Intervals
Alberta Internal Load (AIL) Peak Demand Confidence Intervals
2008
2018
2028
FC2008
(MW)
P97.5
(MW)
P2.5
(MW)
Actual
(MW)
9,833
10,219
9,460
9,806
+386
-373
-27
15,668
13,505
+1,009
-1,154
21,063
17,396
+1,791
-1,875
14,659
19,271
Source: AESO
28
Reliable Power
Closing Remarks
Reliable Markets
Reliable People
AESO Forecasting
• AESO has consolidated some forecasting into one group:
– Mid term load forecasting (0 – 26 months)
– Long term load forecasting (0 – 20 years)
– Ancillary Services Forecasting
– Losses Forecasting
• More integration in 2009:
– Mid and long term forecasts – coordination/optimization continues
– Forecasting products - gathered to one area of our web site
– Updates will be posted
• Formal enquiries through [email protected]
– Allows for a complete response and high standard of service
30
Questions?
31
Reliable Power
Conclusion
Reliable Markets
Reliable People
Conclusion
• Thank you for attending – please forward to us any ideas not
addressed or further questions:
– [email protected]
• Please remember to complete exit survey.
• Presentation will be posted in about a week on AESO
website
• Limited number of hard copies of the Future Demand and
Energy Outlook (2008 – 2028) are available
33