Transcript Accelerating Technological and Social Change

Economics in a new era
Economic Impacts and Strategies
By Brian Wang
Sept 12, 2007
Overview
• Lead up to Molecular manufacturing
• Technology and world of 2015-2020
– Advanced self assembly, chemistry, DNA
nanotechnology, highly scaled tools
• Nanofactories impact
• Fast production  Infrastructure revisions years/months
not decades
• Not just production Clear hurdles to other technology
• Choices that matter – faster growth not just economic
competition but to save lives
Background and review of the Acceleration of Technology
Metamaterials and superlenses,
New states of matter
Superthread: 100 times stronger than steel
Adiabatic quantum computer
Zyvex nanosolve additive
DNA robotic arm array
Virus assembled batteries
DNA origami: 200-trillionths actual
size map
Total genetic control Gene therapy, RNAi,
RNA activation, metagenomics, synthetic
biology
IBM nanogravure printing,
2 nanomater placements
Nanopantography
(Billions of ion beams)
-Thermochemical nanolithography
(writes 10,000+ times faster than DPN, mm/sec)
dimensions down to 12 nanometers in width
Fracture induced
Structuring, 60 nm
Convergence greater than sum of
individual technology parts
+
A lot of
different
technology
developing
=
Molecular
nanotechnology
and technology
convergence
Makes what existed before
more powerful and
accelerates convergence
Improving technology that is
underestimated
• Labs on a chip and bubble logic
• Nanomaterials revolution not just for stronger material
(CNT reinforced aluminum, nanograin metal) but also
batteries, fuel cells. CVD-diamond
• Superconductors
• Nanomembranes
• Lasers
• Wireless, software radio
• Robotics, automation, AI and UAVs
• Rapid prototyping, rapid manufacturing, claytronics
• RFIDs, smart dust and variations
• Cryocoolers, magnetic cooling, efficient condition control
Social change
• Mass wealth (15 million millionaires in 2015 double
2004 amount)
Extrapolation of Merrill Lynch wealth survey
• Triple the number of Tech angel investors in 2015
UNH's venture research center : 51,000 businesses raised
angel funding from 234,000 individuals in 2006
$25.6 billion into US entrepreneurial ventures in 2006
http://www.boston.com/business/globe/articles/2007/03/20/i
nvesting_in_start_ups_by_wealthy_angels_rises_108/
• Rise of China, India and other countries
• Long term acceleration of economic growth
• More countries, companies and people able to fund
technology and change
More companies and countries will be able
to fund and achieve disruptive changes
Faster than Moore’s Law and the
spread of Moore’s law outside IT
• NAND memory
• System Integration
(http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/jun06/3649)
• Graphics chips (general purpose GPUs)
• Falling price of DNA sequencing, synthesis
2015 Projections
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200,000 – 1 million qubit quantum computer
Billions of artificial or simulated neurons
NRAM (Nantero) and PRAM (Ovonics) memory
Ovonic quantum control devices 2008-2013 enable flat
computers
64 Terabyte flash drives (Samsung)
Gene Therapy and gene doping
Superthread – carbon nanotubes common
Wireless, fiber&cable superbroadband 100Mbps5 Gbps
Comcast, Verizon, White space modem (Microsoft and others) overseas, NTT
fiber demo results
• Gigapixel cameras
• Claytronics, Ubiquitous computing, wireless power/comm
• China’s economy passes the USA 2018 +- 3 years
2015 : Nanomaterials, Tools
• Carbon Nanotubes: MWCNT 10k tons per
year 2011, $10-50/lb
• Carbon Nanotubes: 40K-100K tons/year
by 2015, $1-5/lb or less
• Graphene
• Millions of higher precision parallel
AFMs/STMs etc…
DNA Sequencing cost and DNA
synthesis
2007
2010
2012
2015
Cost to sequence genome Largest
(3 billion pairs)
synthesis
3M BP for
ribosome
$100K
45K BP
$3K
1 M BP
$300-600
5M BP
$10-50
50M BP
Pre-full blown molecular manufacturing still has powerful nanopore technology
DNA factories help with the synthesis, as does UK ideas factory synthesis
Pre-nanofactory
A lot of China’s production revolution based on speed and flexibility.
’ China Makes, The World Takes’
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/prem/200707/shenzhen
a company that has built up a brand name and relationships with retailers, and knows
what it wants to promote and sell next—and needs to save time and money in
manufacturing a product that requires a fair amount of assembly.
The Chinese factories can respond more quickly, and not simply
because of 12-hour workdays. “Anyplace else, you’d have to import
different raw materials and components,” Casey told me. “Here,
you’ve got nine different suppliers within a mile, and they can bring a
sample over that afternoon. People think China is cheap, but really,
it’s fast.” Moreover, the Chinese factories use more human labor,
and fewer expensive robots or assembly machines, than their
counterparts in rich countries. “People are the most adaptable
machines,” an American industrial designer who works in China told
me. “Machines need to be reprogrammed. You can have people
doing something entirely different next week.”
About this time (2015-2025) full
blown molecular manufacturing
• What has been holding back technological change
even against the powerful technology of 2015 (20152025) ?
• Changing Infrastructure has still been hard
– Energy was taking decades to solve
– Roadblocks to realizing full computing potential
• Truly conquering space has still been hard
• Bad choices and governance too (expect that to
persist)
• MM will provide the capacity to fix even the hard
problems (energy, infrastructure, space) but the X
factor is the choices that people collectively make
Nanofactory capabilities
• A one-kilogram one-hour nanofactory could, if
supplied with enough feedstock and energy,
makes 4 thousand tons of nanofactories and 8
thousand tons of products in a single day
• Possible to replace/upgrade more than our
current production capability in weeks to months
• Change out earth based infrastructure multiple
times per year
– World infrastructure X.0
• Even faster and more flexible – not just the
nanofactory but world production supply chain
Capability to physically and technological
overcome barriers to space and economic
goals can be achieved
Collective mental restrictions (consistently wrong choices
and bad governance/incentive feedback structure) and that
prevent full capabilities from being developed must be
overcome
Some past technology has been
underutilized and underdeveloped and a
small fraction of its potential
Nuclear power
and
nuclear propulsion
Trying to give up good uses does not
mean bad uses are avoided it just
means good uses are reduced
Any delays or production limitations
for molecular manufacturing
• If full-blown nanofactory molecular manufacturing does
not happen until 2025 or so, there will be increasingly
powerful molecular manipulations and powerful
nanometer control capabilities
• Use the advanced nanometer manipulation systems
• Only use molecular manufacturing for critical
components
• Even when we have diamondoid mechanosynthesis
other simpler manufacturing can be used.
• Maximum energy and resource efficiency
We need to maintain momentum once
we overcome current challenges
Best non-molecular manufacturing
plans and enable and enhance them
• Dual mode transportation
– Mix of car and rail. Cars with guiderails.
– 3 to 6 times more efficient than standard cars
– Lets you go all electric, prevent accidents
– Linear Induction Motors (LIM) higher volumes, high
speeds, no accidents
• Solar power in space and space colonization
– Current: Dnepr Rocket, CP1/a-Si:H (4300W/kg)
• Mirror / Laser arrays
– 100-144 kw lasers, Thirty two 4.5 KW laser diodes
– $30/watt 2006, $10/watt 2010, $2/watt 2015
• Food production  stem cell factories
Drilling down on Industries and
parts of the economy
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Automotive and Transportation
Consumer Products
Distribution
Energy, Utilities and Chemicals
Financial Services
Healthcare
Life Sciences
Manufacturing
Public Sector
Retail
Telecom, Media & Entertainment
Transportation and Distribution
• Clean, efficient energy and transportation
• Smart cars and highways (plans and prototypes
but had chicken and egg problems)
• Molecular manufacturing mass produces
“chickens and eggs”
• Virtual reality – super halo communication
rooms, physical moving avatars
• Local production less transportation of freight.
Pipelines of feedstocks that cannot be locally
produced
• Where possible change in place
Revamping transportation
• In place modifications: electric cars, buses,
smart highways, platooning vehicles, blocking off
city centers (park and switch to nano-Segways –
nano-golf carts)
• More radical: Dual mode transportation
• Nanofactories on the base of a vehicle lay out
guiderails.
• Adapt cars, trucks, buses
• Virtual reality replacement for travel
• Handle materials, waste in place
• Large scale bubble logic through sewers
Is infrastructure being revamped
Quarterly ?Yearly ? Longer ?
• Subscription model for upgrades
• After one or two revamps how much are
the follow on revamps doing (how much
progress and real difference from Excel 97
to Office 2005 ?)
• Do not want customers/people stuck with
old and outdated models and their net
worth tank with depreciating asset
Productivity and Growth
• Depending on how clever and bold we are collectively growth can
rapidly increase to 20% to 50% per year as full blown molecular
manufacturing kicks in.
• After initial burst..what is longer term sustainable growth?
• Managing and maximizing hypergrowth will not be easy
• Fastest growing company lists
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/business2/b2fastestgrowing/2007/
http://www.inc.com/resources/inc500/2006/top25.html
It will be critical to be able scale overall business quickly. Dot.com was
a warm up
Increase energy efficiency 3-10 times, increase usage 500 times. In 20 years at
the 50% annual rate, we would be past Kardashev level one (need off earth
power or far high density power sources) 60 more years to K2.
Restructuring for hypergrowth
• Initial certified inputs and outputs and scaling assessments.
Compared against what might be displaced.
• Varying certifications. ie. Easy certification for some better power
sources to displace dangerous coal power, but growing beyond that
would have more stringent requirements
• Need multiple faster than real time simulations for assessing
environmental and other impacts
• Cannot have multi-year studies and assessments and have good
growth let alone hypergrowth
• Need to enable more builders of new industries and expander of
industries
• Get people from just re-allocating without adding value
• Without restructuring some will be stuck at lower growth levels
• Strengthen entrepreneurship, venture capital and private equity
More change than just production
(Part 1 of 3)
• What scientific and engineering problems that
were just out of reach are conquered by the new
capabilities ?
• Wide scale molecularly precise real time
analysis – boosts scientific understanding
• Room temperature superconductors
(nanostructured materials, phonon mediation)
• Enabling wave after wave of new powerful
technology and change
More change than just production
(part 2 of 3)
• Nuclear fusion (Z-pinch, Colliding beam , laser)
• Mass produced high burn nuclear fission and
large scale adsorption of ocean uranium and
other minerals
• Super-charged solar power production
• Magnets, lasers, energy density, capacitance
• Inexpensive access to space from many
different technology options
More change than just production
(part 3 of 3)
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Nanomedicine
Life Extension
Capability enhancement
AI and robotics
Unblocking breakthroughs
Maximizing physical effects
– Capacitance for lorentz propulsion
– Energy density
– Conversion efficiency
• Physics and science at the edges
Business strategies
Premium for speed and effective responsiveness
Detailed anticipation
Effectiveness in handling transitions
No limit/High Growth Businesses
and Jobs
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Entrepreneurs, business owners, innovation
Entertainers
Space expansion, adventurers, explorers
Various people to people interaction (Events, sports …)
Certain healthcare, health improvement and services
Fashion, design, status
Sales, marketing, branding, relationship building
Many jobs not really part of high growth economy and
relatively inert matter to civilization progress
• Economy can also grow by doing more of the same
transactions
– X times more transactions in the same year
– New kinds of transactions
Strategies when technology is
rapidly accelerating
• More projects should be game changers and
leapfrogging
• Robust positioning and strategies in case of rapid
change
• Forward view and rapid response
• Awareness of other situations globally and historically
• Look for leverage and creative ways to overcome
bottlenecks
• Look at altering processes and creative bootstrapping.
Deliver as much benefit as you can now. Get more when
you revamp
• Collaborative Simulations to model choices and options
– Informed Choice management and negative impact
mitigation
• Hypergrowth and hypercompetition
Prudently spread bets, travel in the right direction
and to the right goals
Gather information and useful resources (lasting
relationships etc)
More Technology for more robustness and
ability to tolerate persistent imperfection
Change may be required
Slowing down probably a
bad choice
Some problems may
not go away but may
be more tolerable
Advancednano site
http://advancednano.blogspot.com
Brian Wang
[email protected]
Open for Q & A
Choices and Competition
• Hyper speed game of rule-changing Go
– Build anew away from protected areas
– Take more turns
– Hypercompetition
– More choices, options and opportunities
• Singularity Technologically possible X
companies are competing to do it
2015 China has a big middle class
• China 140 million households (50%) out of 280
million with $6000-10000 (4RMB to 1USD)
• Up from 41 million (20%) 2007 205 million
households, 25000-40000RMB
• 59 million households (21.2%) out of 280 million
with $10000-25000 (4 RMB to 1USD)
• Up from 21 million (10%) 2007 205 million
households, 40000-100000RMB
• 65% in cities up from 50%
Source: McKinsey Quarterly
http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/article_page.aspx?ar=1734&L2=18&L3=30
Historical shifts to high growth
• Technology can provide
productivity boom
• Shifts in leadership in
China (1978) and India
(1980s and 1991)
• Philippines recent shift
• Corruption,
mismanagement and
economic structure can
limit growth
Series of exponential modes
• Long-Term Growth As A Sequence of Exponential
Modes, Robin Hanson
Dept. of Economics, George Mason University
Mode
Doubling
Date Began
Grows
Time (DT) To Dominate
---------- --------- ----------Brain size 34M yrs
550M B.C.
Hunters
230K yrs 2000K B.C.
Farmers
860 yrs
4700 B.C.
??
58 yrs
1730
Industry
15 yrs
1903
MNT
X weeks 20XX
MNT + AGI
Y days 20YY
MNT + AGI + New Science vX
Doubles Doubles
of DT
of WP
------ ------?
"~16"
7.2
8.7
8.1
7.5
3.9
3.2
1.9
>6.3
X Times
-------64,000
450
200
10
80
GDP Equations
C is private consumption, G is public consumption, NX is net exports,
and I represents investments, or savings. Note that in the Solow model,
we represent public consumption and private consumption simply as
total consumption from both the public and government sector.
Cobb-Douglas function where Y represents the total production in an
economy. A represents multifactor productivity (often generalized as
technology), K is capital and L is labor.
Ex. 2% of the population moves from rural areas to cities each year.
People in cities have 3 times the productivity (GDP per capita).
Urbanization would then add 6% GDP to annual growth
Jobs
The stronger AI and automation is then the more jobs are changed
Fishing could be replaced by stem cell food factories
Assets
• Challenges for Asset classes
• Real estate - valuation change based on possibly lower
cost of replacement
• Shifts in economic health of regions and cities could
cause localized price collapses
• Adaptability and competitiveness of the people who
make up the economy of a region is vital - able to shift
and create new industries
• How to make creative destruction humane ?
– Under-employed should be preparing for the next waves
• Assets / jobs secondary to information (IP), creativity,
relationships, branding, reputation
Andy Groves Healthcare plan:
opportunity for medical products
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http://www.wired.com/medtech/health/news/2007/04/andygrove_healthcare_qanda?currentPage=2
• A near term example of a plan to overcome government inaction,
circumventing slow changing infrastructure protectors
• First: Keep elderly people at home as long as possible (an idea he
calls "shift left"). Use high-tech gadgets to help them remember to
take their medicine and monitor their health. In one year, if a quarter
of the people now living in nursing homes went home, it would save
more than $12 billion, Grove says.
• Second, Grove advocates addressing the uninsured by building
more "retail clinics" -- basic health care centers in drugstores and
other outlets that can take care of problems that are presently, and
expensively, addressed in emergency rooms.
• Lastly, unify medical records using the internet. In his vision, every
patient carries a USB drive containing his or her medical records,
which any doctor can download.
An Open Mind and creative
solutions
• Is it impossible or are you thinking about a bad
solution ? Has it already happened?
• Maybe another approach provides the benefits
without the downsides or the challenges
• Teleportation OR rapid acceleration
• Holodeck OR VR
• No FTL but really good telescopes and fantastic
in solar system mobility
Coaching those with different views
of the world and the future
• Provide information that they may not be
aware to adjust their point of view
• Position strategies as precautionary plan B
or keeping options open
Screens and form
factors
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OLED
Ovonic quantum control
Separating functions
Practical holography
http://www.technologyreview.com/Infotech/18572/
Hologram from computer file
Allow preview of product
http://www.ivanhoe.com/science/story/2006/05/142si.html
Identifying the right problems for
you and your clients
• Are you prepared ? Familiar with big picture,
learning curve
• Some of the details of problems and solutions
matters are very important
• Tested processes
• Are the right questions being asked?
• Scoping and quantifying
• One problem or many?
• Other points of view and contexts