Transcript Sustainability Through the Market

Pathways to
2050
Energy & climate change
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Pathways to 2050:
What it is and what it is not
This publication discusses future energy shifts in the
context of a long term atmospheric concentration of
CO2 of no more than 550 ppm.
The options discussed are not a scenario, but an
illustrative hypothesis to gauge the extent of change
needed in our energy infrastructure and the impact
that might have on industry.
The publication is not an endorsement of any
particular pathway, technology or specific
atmospheric concentration target.
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What is the content?
 At a glance: the changes needed
 Global trends and pathways
 Sectoral megatrends
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Power generation
Industry & manufacturing
Mobility
Buildings
Consumer choices
 Economic regions and countries
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USA & Canada
EU-25
China
Japan
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What is the content?
 At a glance: the changes needed
 Global trends and pathways
 Sectoral megatrends
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Power generation
Industry & manufacturing
Mobility
Buildings
Consumer choices
 Economic regions and countries
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USA & Canada
EU-25
China
Japan
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16
°C
6-
14
2050
6-7 GtC reduction
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10
5-
8
3-
Global Carbon Emissions, GtC
550
ppm
4Facts & Trends
9 GtC world
WRE 1000 (IPCC)
WRE 550 (IPCC)
WRE 450 (IPCC)
1000
ppm
Further rises to 2300
By 2050 we need to
have reduced CO2
emissions by 6-7 GtC
with 1.3 GtC reduced
by 2025, compared
with the "BAU" case.
Facts & Trends
IPCC Scenarios
450
ppm
6
2100 range
Global Carbon Emissions, GtC
Pathways at a glance…
Needed reductions
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13
1-
2
2025
1.3 GtC reduction
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1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
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BAU
Pathways to 2050
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2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
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What is the content?
 At a glance: the changes needed
 Global trends and pathways
 Sectoral megatrends





Power generation
Industry & manufacturing
Mobility
Buildings
Consumer choices
 Economic regions and countries
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

USA & Canada
EU-25
China
Japan
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How does energy flow
through our economy?
Oil
Biomass
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Renewables
Primary energy
Direct combustion
Liquids
Electricity
Industry &
manufacturing
Power generation
Final energy
Buildings
Mobility
Consumer choices
Major energy users
Energy
Major GHG emitters
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One way of representing the challenge:
The Kaya Identity
The Kaya Identity breaks down the main driving forces
for CO2 emissions into four factors, such that:
CO2 emissions
=
people
x (energy/unit GDP) x (CO2/unit energy)
X x (GDP/Person)
X
Only four factors govern the outcome:




Population
Economic prosperity
Energy intensity
Carbon intensity
Number of people
GDP per person
Energy per unit of GDP (energy efficiency of the economy)
CO2 per unit of energy (reflects the emissions from energy
production and use)
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Illustration of country pathways
2002
Linear (2002)
2050
Linear (2050)
400
USA & Canada
Energy per capita, GJ
Energy per capita, GJ
400
350
300
250
200
350
300
250
Japan
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
EU-25
CO2 per energy
unit used, t/TJ
China
$20,000
$40,000 $60,000
GDP per capita, US$ 1995 (ppp)
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
GDP per capita, US$ 1995 (ppp)
Countries have to reduce both their energy and carbon
intensities, i.e., moving from a high intensity path
(yellow) to a low intensity path (blue).
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Sectors: The global trends
Carbon emissions
Land use change
GtC
Others
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Power generation
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Buildings
6
Transports (mobility)
4
Industry & manufacturing
2
0
2002
BAU 2025 Pathways 2025
Pathways 2050
Final energy consumption
EJ
Others
400
Buildings
300
Transports (mobility)
Industry & manufacturing
200
100
0
2002
BAU 2025 Pathways 2025
Pathways 2050
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Where are we?
 At a glance: the changes needed
 Global trends and pathways
 Sectoral megatrends





Power generation
Industry & manufacturing
Mobility
Buildings
Consumer choices
 Economic regions and countries




USA & Canada
EU-25
China
Japan
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What needs to happen
in power generation?
Electricity generation by fuel
Milestones by 2025
Wind & others
Solar
EJ
Biomass and waste
Hydro
Nuclear
100
Gas
Oil
50
Coal with sequestration
Coal without sequestration
0
2002
BAU 2025
Pathways 2025
Pathways 2050
By 2050
 Natural gas is the largest fossil contibutor to electricity
generation;
 Hydropower more than doubles until 2050;
 Wind, geothermal, wave and tidal power increase
nearly 160-fold from 2002;
 Coal use grows by 50% and half the generation capacity
uses CCS.
 Commercialized coal
power generation with
carbon capture and
storage and have
some 100 or more
plants in operation
globally;
 Gained full public
acceptance of nuclear
power as a viable
zero-carbon power
generation option and
restarted long-term
growth in this industry.
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An important role for electricity
Shares of electricity in final
energy consumption (%)
Electricity use is already growing
more quickly relative to other
energy carriers due to:
BAU
Pathways to 2050
 Increasing numbers of electrical
appliances;
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50
40
 Information technology;
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20
10
0
2002
2025
2050
 Improvements in electrical
applications and a substitution of
fossil fuels in end use.
Potential role of electricity in a carbon constrained world:
 Most renewable technologies generate electricity;
 A flexible energy carrier, which produces no emissions at point of use, and
offers additional potential for carbon management if generated from low
and zero-carbon sources.
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Industry and manufacturing:
Wide portfolio of measures and options
Energy use and emissions levels are rising in industry
and manufacturing due to:
 Rising population levels;
 Continuing economic growth (e.g., GDP per capita in China
increases by more than a factor of 7 until 2050).
Emissions reduction measures:
 Increase the deployment of currently best available
technologies (BATs) especially to developing countries;
 Improve energy efficiency and fuel conservation;
 Develop new low-energy and low-carbon intensive
technologies;
 Shift towards electricity and bio fuels.
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Uneven energy intensity in the world
Energy intensity of industry
30.6
20
MJ/GDP per capita, $US (1995)
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16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
North
America
Latin
America
Western
Europe
Other
Asia
Middle
East
Asia China
(NIC’s)
Japan
South Asia
Africa
Oceania
1980
1990
2002
15
Source: WEC and ADEME, 2004
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Developments in the Mobility Sector
Energy consumption in the mobility sector (EJ)
Marine bunkers
120
Aviation
100
80
Rail transport
60
Vehicles / Road transport
40
20
0
Trends
 Shift towards mass transportation, which is about seven times more
efficient than a light duty vehicle;
 Need to significantly increase the deployment of highly efficient and
hydrogen vehicles;
 Growing emissions in the aviation sector due to high demand and
absence of a large-scale alternative to current conventional fuels.
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What has to change in road transport?
Road transport (vehicle-kms, trillions)
2002
0
13.9
5
10
15
2025
0
22.5
5
10
15
20
2050
0
28
5
10
15
20
25
Fuel mix in road transport (%)
100
80
60
40
20
0
Hydrogen
Fossil
25%
60%
Bio fuels
2002
15%
2050
Vehicle distribution (millions)
2000
Hydrogen
High efficiency
1000
Conventional
0
500
1100
400
By 2050
Average vehicle efficiency has increased significantly and
emissions from road transport have decreased by nearly 40%.
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Megatrend shifts in buildings
2002
104 EJ
(35%)
Energy use, EJ
(% of world total)
Pathways 2050
0.78 GtC
(11%)
237 EJ
(43%)
0.75 GtC
(9%)
Carbon emissions, GtC
(% of world total)
Energy consumption increases
due to:
Energy consumption and
emissions can be reduced by:
 Rising living standards;
 A growing service sector;
 The information economy;
 A shift from rural to urban living.
 Radical design;
 Placement;
 Efficient appliances;
 New materials;
 In-situ energy generation.
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Towards a zero-energy home
Ventilated double skin facades to
reduce heating and cooling
requirements
Rooms that are not
normally heated
(e.g. a garage) serving
as additional insulation
Solar photovoltaic panels for
electricity production and solar
thermal panels for water heating
Transparent design to
reduce the need for lighting
Trees to provide shade
and cooling in summer,
and a shield against
cold wind in winter
Wood as a building material with
advantageous insulation properties,
which also stores carbon and is often
produced with biomass energy
“Low-E” glass coating to reduce the
amount of heat absorbed from
sunlight through the windows
(windows with the reverse effect
can be installed in colder climates)
New battery
technology for the
storage of the
electricity produced
by solar panels
Heat pump systems that utilize the stable
temperature in the ground to support air
conditioning in summer and heating or hot water
supply in winter
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The power of consumer choices
Today:
The different choices we make
today can significantly affect
our carbon footprint
Two families, two footprints (tons of carbon p.a.)
Household
Car travel
Air travel
Waste
Total:
4.09
2.20
3.11
0.25
9.65
 Energy characteristics of goods
and services hardly affect our
consumer choices;
 Lack of consumer awareness
regarding energy and carbon
issues.
By 2050:
Household
Car travel
Air travel
Waste
Total:
Source: BP carbon Calculator
0.20
0.23
0.32
0.10
0.85
 Society has understood that their choices
affect the energy balance;
 The energy impacts of our choices become
completely transparent;
 Products will have a low-energy and lowcarbon value.
Consumer choices as a cross-cutting
trend affect all the other megatrends.
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2050:
What has happened?
 The power sector supplies low-carbon electricity
from a wide variety of energy sources. Electricity use
has increased significantly;
 The industry and manufacturing sector has further
improved its efficiency;
 The mobility sector has nearly doubled its vehicle
efficiency, adapted a broader range of fuels, and
balanced private and mass transportation;
 The building sector has significantly enhanced its
energy efficiency to partly offset rising energy
demand;
 Consumers are fully aware that their every day
choices affect the energy balance.
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Where are we?
 At a glance: the changes needed
 Global trends and pathways
 Sectoral megatrends





Power generation
Industry & manufacturing
Mobility
Buildings
Consumer choices
 Economic regions and countries




USA & Canada
EU-25
China
Japan
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USA and Canada:
Efficient and growing
Energy per capita, GJ
400
2002
1990
350
Pathways 2025
1971
300
Pathways 2050
CO2 per energy
unit used, t/TJ
250
0
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
GDP per capita,
$US (1995 ppp)
Milestones by 2025
By 2050
 Carbon emissions in decline, particularly from
the transport sector;
 Nuclear power capacity maintained at 2000
levels;
 Over 70 coal-fired power stations with CCS;
 50% improvement in vehicle efficiency and two
million hydrogen powered vehicles on the road;
 Bio-fuel use well established and meeting +10%
of the vehicle fuel mix.
 Robust growth with little increase in
energy demand;
 A transformation in the transport
sector;
 Coal-fired power generation based
largely on CCS;
 Nuclear power use up 40%;
 Large scale use of renewables.
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USA and Canada:
Exploring economic trade-offs
CO2 per unit of energy,
t CO2 / terajoule
70
Focus on energy efficiency, little decarbonization
60
1990
2002
50
40
Focus on
decarbonization, little
improvement in
efficiency
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2050 options,
constant carbon
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10
0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Energy per
GDP, MJ per $
Two extreme pathways, same carbon curve:
 Energy efficiency improvements, no decarbonization
 Decarbonization, no energy efficiency improvements
Balanced and optimized approach has been chosen
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EU-25:
A broad based energy infrastructure
Energy per capita, GJ
2002
180
Pathways 2025
1990
160
Pathways 2050
1971
140
120
CO2 per energy
unit used, t/TJ
100
0
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
GDP per capita,
$US (1995 ppp)
Milestones by 2025:
By 2050:
 Some 30+ large generating stations
using CCS;
 Natural gas use up 35% from 2002;
 A restart in nuclear power growth;
 Rapid growth in renewable energy: wind
power some 10-15 times the 2002 level;
 Vehicle efficiency improves by nearly 50%.
 Overall reduction in primary energy
demand;
 Electricity becomes the main end-use
energy source;
 A broad based energy mix, including
nuclear;
 Petroleum / bio-fuel / hydrogen mix
in the transport sector;
 Large scale use of renewables.
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EU-25:
The "decarbonization challenge"
Final Energy
Electricity
Liquids
Gas
Solids
2 EJ per
year solar
50,000
5MW wind
turbines
100 1GW
coal power
stations
100 1GW
100 1GW oil
coal stations
power
with
stations
sequestration
100 1GW
biomass or
waste
stations
100 1GW
gas power
stations
100 1GW
nuclear
plants
100 1GW
hydro/ tidal
/geothermal
50 million
vehicles
50 million
efficient
vehicles
(Zero CO2)
10 EJ direct
fuel use
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China:
A low-carbon, coal-based economy
Energy per capita, GJ
125
100
Pathways 2025
75
50
1971
Pathways 2050
CO2 per energy
unit used, t/TJ
1990
25
2002
0
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000 GDP per capita,
$US (1995 ppp)
Milestones by 2025:
By 2050:
 Gasification as the standard for coal-based
power generation (with CCS starting);
 Tough energy efficiency standards in place
for all buildings;
 10 fold expansion in nuclear power generation
vs. 2002;
 Wind and solar deployment becomes significant;
 Continued tightening of vehicle efficiency
standards and hydrogen infrastructure being
developed.
 Heavy reliance on coal for power,
but 50% using CCS;
 Large scale use of renewables,
dominated by wind;
 Nuclear as a mainstream source
of power;
 High-efficiency vehicle fleet
(~350 million) - 6 litres/100 km;
 Sustainable biomass practices.
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China:
Fast evolving energy infrastructure
Final Energy
Traditional biomass
Solids
Liquids
Gas
Electricity
5 EJ per
year solar
100,000
5MW wind
turbines
200 1GW
coal power
stations
200 1GW
200 1GW oil
coal stations
power
with
stations
sequestration
200 1GW
biomass or
waste
stations
200 1GW
gas power
stations
200 1GW
nuclear
plants
200 1GW
hydro/ tidal
/geothermal
100 million
vehicles
(Zero CO2)
100 million
efficient
vehicles
(Zero CO2)
10 EJ noncommercial
fuel
20 EJ direct
fuel use
(Biomass)
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Japan:
A sustainable showcase economy
Energy per capita, GJ
200
2002
Pathways 2025
1990
150
1971
Pathways 2050
100
CO2 per energy
unit used, t/TJ
50
0
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
GDP per capita,
$US (1995 ppp)
$60,000
Milestones by 2025:
By 2050:
 A 50+% reduction in coal-fired power
generation;
 Sustained growth re-established in the nuclear
sector;
 Thin-film solar commercialized in building use
(roofing/cladding);
 Commercial hydrogen generation and use in
transport with ~20% market share;
 50% improvement in vehicle efficiency and two
million hydrogen vehicles on the road.
 Coal-fired power generation
phased out;
 Nuclear at double 2002 levels;
 Distributed solar generation;
 All vehicles on the road are
hydrogen powered;
 A further step change in the energy
efficiency of the economy.
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In summary:
The features of a 550ppm trajectory
Examples
By 2025:
By 2050:
Power generation:  More than 100 CCS facilities  Coal use grows by 50%
are in operation.
compared to 2002, and half
of the capacity uses CCS.
Mobility:
 Around 375 million highefficiency vehicles are on
the road.
 Predominantly high
efficiency vehicles with a
wide fuel mix.
EU-25:
 « Wind and others » being
10-15 times the 2002 level.
 « Wind and others » being
the largest power generation
source.
China:
 Nuclear power capacity
increases nearly 10-fold
to 2002.
 Nuclear generation capacity
as big as EU and North
America combined today.
Japan:
 Energy use per GDP unit
has fallen from 7 MJ/$
to 4.2 MJ/$.
 Energy efficiency continues
to improve by more than 2%
a year.
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A range of existing technologies and policies, further developed and
deployed can deliver a 550 ppm trajectory, but…
. . . the scale of change is immense,
. . . . . and we need to act now!
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