Transcript Methicillin 내성 포도구균 (MRSA)

Health benefits of reducing PM10
through the Seoul Air Quality
Management Plan
June 5, 2007
Jeongim Park
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Outline
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Seoul Air Quality Management Plan (SAQMP)
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Study Scope and Methods
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Premature Deaths–Related Benefits from SAQMP
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Summary and Future Improvements
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Seoul Metropolitan Area
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Seoul Metropolitan Area
Gyeonggi
11.7 %
46.6 %
4 times
44.7 %
46.3 %
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Air Pollution Trends in Seoul
90
0.050
80
0.045
0.040
60
0.030
50
0.025
40
0.020
0.015
0.010
㎍/m³
70
0.035
30
20
0.005
10
0.000
0
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90
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91
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92
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93
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94
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95
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96
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97
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98
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99
20
00
20
01
ppm
0.055
Tokyo
PM10 New
(㎍/m³)
NO₂
(ppm)
O₃
(ppm)
SO₂
(ppm)
York
Year
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SAQMP’s PM10 Goal
Statement
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Special Law for Improving Air Quality in
Seoul Metropolitan Area (2004)
You will see the Yellow sea
from Namsan, the center of Seoul!
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SAQMP measures
Source
Point
Source
Area
Source
On-road
vehicle
Policy / Measure
(partial list)
Description / Example
Emission trading
Emission allowance allocation for large sources
Fuel regulation
Promotion of low-sulfur fuel
Emission standard
Stricter standards for small industrial sources
Voluntary agreement
Monitoring and assisting voluntary program
Fuel regulation
Promotion of low-sulfur fuel and natural gas
NOx source management
Promotion of low-NOx boilers
Demand management
Eco-building certification
VOCs management
Fugitive VOC regulation for industrial process
Emission standard
Stricter emission standards for new cars
Clean vehicle
Promotion of electric of hybrid cars
End-of-pipe equipment
Subsidy for DPF/DOC/SCR installation
Fuel standard
Stricter standards for vehicle fuel quality
Demand management
Congestion charge, parking regulation, upgrading
public transportation service
Off-road
vehicle
Emission standard
Stricter emission standards for new vehicle
Fuel regulation
Stricter sulfur contents regulation for ship fuels
End-of-pipe equipment
Subsidy for DPF and SCR installation
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Emission Reduction Potentials
from SAQMP
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Study Goal

To estimate the health benefits from
implementing the SAQMP in 2014

PM10 reduction

Premature mortality (acute effect)
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BenMAP Framework
Data Input
to BenMAP
Results
from BenMAP
Data Input
to BenMAP
Population
Data
Population
Estimates
Geographic
Grid
Definitions
Air Quality
Monitoring
Population
Exposure
Air Quality
Modeling
Health
Functions
Adverse
Health Effects
Incidence
Prevalence
Valuation
Functions
Economic
Benefits
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Analysis Materials
Spatial Scope
Seoul Metropolitan Area (Seoul, Incheon, Gyeonggi)
Target pollutant
PM10
Population data
Age/sex categorized data of administrative boundaries
(National statistics)
Emission data
Air Quality data
CAPSS 2001 (Provided by Ministry of Environment)
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Monitoring data in 2001
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MM5/CMAQ modeling data
2014 BAU (Business As Usual)
2014 Control (with SAQMP implemented)
C-R Functions
(acute mortality)
Baseline incidence
=0.000157(RR=1.015, Seoul, 1999-2004)
=0.000769(RR=1.025, Incheon, 1999-2004)
(long-term effects =0.00463, Krewski et al, 2000)
death rates in 2005 (0.0050324)
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Population
(year 2001)
9,200 ~
347,780
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PM10 Distribution:
2001 Monitoring
49~88
ug/m3
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Air Quality Modeling :
MM5/CMAQ
MM5
MM5
Meteorology Modeling
System
(Meteorological
Modeling
System)
CAPSS, ACEASIA
MEPPS
Emission Modeling System
EMISSION
ECIP
Emission-Chemistry
Interface Processor
MCIP
Meteorology-Chemistry
Interface Professor
LUPROC
Land use Processor
Program Control
Processing
Fundamentals of
Dynamics for CMAQ
CMAQ Chemical Transport Model(CTM)
ICON and BCON
Initial and Boundary
Condition Processors
JPROC
Photolysis Rate
Processor
Governing
Equations
Plume-in Grid
Treatment
Governing
Gas
Phase
Equations
chemistry
Transport
Algorithms
Process Analysis
Cloud
Chemistry and
Dynamics
Aerosol
Chemistry and
Dynamics
Aggregation
Inte gration of Scie nce Code into M ode ls -3
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PM10 Distribution :
2001 Modeling
24~106 ug/m3
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PM10 Distribution :
2014 BAU
27~122 ug/m3
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PM10 Distribution :
2014 Control
12~54 ug/m3
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PM10 (2014 BAU –2014 Control)
15~75 ug/m3
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Health Impact Functions
CHANGE
in
CHANGE
pollution (ΔPM)
from the baseline to
the control scenario
health effects (Δy)
from the baseline
to the control scenario
in
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Health Effects Change-required
data
Health
Air Quality
Effect
Effects =
Incidence * Population
Change * Estimate *
Change
• Concentration Units:
ppm, ppb, μg/m3
• Measurements:
maximum, average
• Measurement Intervals: hourly, daily, annual
• Data Sources: Air Quality Monitoring data (NIER)
Air Quality Modeling (using CAPSS)
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Health Effects Change-required
data
Health
Air Quality
Effect
Effects =
Incidence * Population
Change * Estimate *
Change
• Pollution Effect Units:
- change in health effect rate per μg/m3, ppm, ppb;
- unit change in health effect per μg/m3, ppm, ppb
• Measurements Interval: hourly, daily, annual
• Data Sources: epidemiological studies
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Health Effects Change-required
data
Health
Air Quality
Effect
Effects =
Incidence * Population
Change * Estimate *
Change
• Health Effects Units:
• mortality: number of deaths per 100,000; individual risk of death
• morbidity: number of new bronchitis cases per 100,000; annual
risk of an asthma attack; number of hospital admissions per 100,000
• Measurements Interval: daily, annual
• Data sources: National Statistical Office; National Health Institutes;
Published papers, etc.
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Saved lives from
(2014 BAU – 2014 Control)
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Saved lives from
(2014 BAU – 2014 Control)
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Value of Statistical Life (VSL)

Valuation Methods
 Revealed preference approaches

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Hedonic pricing (ex) labor market, property markets
Averting behavior (ex) smoke alarms
 Stated


preference approaches
Contingent valuation method:
Choice Modeling: Choice experiment(or Conjoint analysis)
 Resource


Cost of Illness(COI)
Human Capital Approach(HCA)
 Benefit

Cost techniques
Transfer
The transfer of existing estimates (STUDY CASE) to a new study
which is different from the study for which the values were originally
estimated(POLICY CASE)
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Benefit Transfer

Benefit Transfer Method
VSL(Korea, 2001) = VSL(USA,2000)*Radj
Radj = (ppp(2000)kOREA /ppp(2000)USA )
 [per capita GDP(2000)kOREA/per capita GDP(2000)USA]
 [GDP deflator(2001)kOREA/GDP deflator(2000)KOREA]
PPP: Purchasing power parity
Point Estimate
Distribution
P1
(scale parameter)
P2
(shape parameter)
USA(2000,$)
6,324,101
Weibull
5,320,000
1.509588
KOREA(2001,$)
2,361,882
Weibull
1,986,877,239
1.509588
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Summary

PM10-related health benefits from
implementing the SAQMP were analyzed
using the BenMAP software

More than 2,000 avoided premature deaths
were estimated with putting the SAQMP into
action (short-term effects only)

The economic value of the deaths avoided
was estimated to $4.8billion.
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Thank you!!
Health benefits of reducing PM10
through the Seoul Air Quality Management Plan
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