Transcript Slide 1

The BER’s surveys: their origin, how they
work and selected survey results
George Kershoff
3 Feb 2010
Outline
• The BER’s surveys
– The BER’s business surveys
• Business confidence
– The BER’s consumer confidence survey
– The retail survey – more details
• Selected survey results
The BER’s business surveys
Origin
• Business tendency surveys (BTS) developed
independently in Europe and US between world wars
• When BER started surveys in 1954, SA became 7th
country in the world
• Today they are conducted world wide by
–
–
–
–
Statistical agencies (France, China),
Central banks (Belgium, Japan, Korea, Thailand)
Research Institutes (Germany, Italy, SA)
Business organisations (UK, Australia)
Origin
• Harmonised standards –
– OECD – BTS handbook
– Workshops and academic conferences organised by Ciret
(Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency
Surveys) and EU / OECD
How business surveys are conducted
• Requirements: simple, rapid, voluntary
• Use deliberate (convenience non-probability)
sampling to create and maintain a panel of
participants
– Degree of representation
– Response rate
• Questionnaire
– Few questions
– Business activity and constraints
– Only indicate “up”, “remain the same” or “down”
compared to a year ago
Calculating the results
• Firm and sector weights
• Example:
– 60% “up”, 30% “same” and 10% “down”
– Net balance: 60% “up” less 10% “down” = 50%
Survey data vs. official data: for example,
manufacturing production
BER
Stats SA
80
15
60
10
% change YoY
Net balance
40
20
0
-20
5
0
-5
-10
-40
-60
-15
-80
-20
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09
Survey data vs. official data
Manuf production
80
15
BER
60
Stats SA
Net balance
40
5
20
0
0
-5
-20
% change YoY
10
-10
-40
-60
-15
-80
-20
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
The BER’s business surveys cover the following
economic sectors
Sector
1. Business confidence
2. Building & Construction
Report
BCI Res Note
Build & Constr
Architects
Quantity surveyors
Residential & non-residential contractors
Residential & non-residential sub-contractors
Civil engineering contractors
Sponsor
RMB
FNB
FNB
FNB
3. Manufacturing
Quarterly manuf survey
Monthly purchasing managers
Manufacturing Survey
PMI report on web
DTI
Kagiso
The BER’s business surveys cover the following
economic sectors
Sector
4. Internal trade
Report
Retail Survey
Sponsor
None
Retail
Wholesale
Vehicle trade (new, used, spare parts)
5. Consumer confidence
6. Financial services
Retail banks
Merchant & Investment banks
Investment managers
Life insurers
Short-term insurers
CCI Res Note
Web report
(Not published yet)
FNB
E&Y
The BER’s business surveys cover the following
economic sectors
Sector
7. Other services
Catering & accommodation
Transport, storage & communication
Real estate & business services
Personal services
Report
Sponsor
Not published yet
In sum
• Compliment official data – indicate direction of
change prior to its release
• Reliability
– Aggregate sector vs. sub-sector
– Direction of change vs. size of change
Business confidence
• Covers manufacturers, building contractors, retailers,
wholesalers and new vehicle dealers
• Indicates % rating prevailing business conditions as
satisfactory
Business confidence
RMB/BER BCI
High
100
Low
50
0
75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09
Business confidence is an excellent indicator of
business cycle
100
30
90
25
80
20
70
15
60
10
50
5
40
0
30
-5
20
-10
10
-15
0
-20
80
82
84
86
88
90
BCI Index (lhs)
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
SARB Coincident %ch YoY (rhs)
08
Business confidence peaks before SARB cyclical
indicator
100
SARB upper
cyclical turning
point
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
BCI Index (lhs)
00
02
04
06
08
Business confidence bottoms at the same time
as the SARB cyclical indicator
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
SARB bottom
cyclical turning
point
10
0
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
BCI Index (lhs)
00
02
04
06
08
Business confidence vs. GDP growth
100
10
90
8
80
6
70
60
4
50
2
40
0
30
-2
20
10
-4
0
-6
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
BCI Index (lhs)
95
97
99
01
03
Real GDP %ch YoY (rhs)
05
07
09
GDP growth deconstructed
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
Mnf, constr, trade
95
97
99
01
Agric, mining
03
Rest
05
07
09
Business confidence vs. a deconstructed GDP
growth
100
15
90
80
10
70
60
5
50
40
0
30
20
-5
10
0
-10
81
83
85
87
89
91
BCI Index (lhs)
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
Mnf, constr, trade %ch YoY (rhs)
07
09
Consumer confidence
Origin and how consumer confidence surveys
are conducted
• University of Michigan
• Personal interviews of a representative sample of
2500 adults
• Questions
– Economic performance of country in 12 months’ time
– Household financial position in 12 months’ time
– Rating of present time to buy durable goods
Origin and how consumer confidence surveys
are conducted
• Net balance  results could vary between -100 and
+100
• Results are available per
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–
–
–
Question
Race group
Income group
Other: LSM group, Age, Gender, Province
Consumer confidence
CCI per income group
CCI per question
50
Economy
Own finances
Time to buy durables
40
30
20
10
0
-10
High >R5000
-20
Low <R5000
-30
95
98
01
04
07
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
The trade survey - more details
Retail survey: questions
• Prevailing business conditions  confidence
• Compared to a year ago
–
–
–
–
–
–
Business conditions
Sales volumes
Orders placed
Employment
Rate of increase in purchase / selling prices
Profitability
• Stocks compared to expected demand
Results are available per
• Type of good
– Durables (excl motor vehicles, incl building material)
– Semi-durables
– Non-durables
• Per province
Wholesale and motor trade sector
• Wholesalers of
– Consumer goods
– Non-consumer goods
• Motor trade
– New vehicles
– Used vehicles
– Spare parts
09Q4 survey results
BER survey results
Mnf production
04
05
06
07
08
Retail sales
09
04
05
Wholesale sales
04
05
06
07
08
06
07
08
09
New vehichle…
09
04
05
06
07
08
09
BER survey results
Building activity
04
05
06
07
08
09
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The author and Stellenbosch University do not accept responsibility for any loss that might result from accidentally inaccurate data
and interpretations although great care is exercised to record all information correctly.