Transcript Turkey: Advantages and Disadvantages for Entering the EU

Negotiations Turkey - EU
Will They Ever End?
by Crystal Santana, Mike O‘Donnell, Bojana Marusic,
Nina Schulte-Schmale
Table of Contents
1.) Overview
2.) Background
3.) Beginning of negotiations with EU
4.) Turkey’s progress in meeting the requirements
5.) Arguments for Turkish membership
6.) Arguments against Turkish membership
7.) Conclusion/ Will Turkey join the EU?
Overview
Capital: Ankara
Official language: Turkish
Religion: secular, 99.8% is Muslim
Government: ParliamentaryRepublic
Population: 2005 estimate 72.600.000
2000 estimate 67.803.927
 GDP: 2006 estimate
Total $612.3 Billion
Per Capita $9,107
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Background – steps in becoming a candidate of EU
 Turkey –pluralist secular democracy
 Proclamation of the Republic in 1923
 1959 – European Economic Community (EEC)
 1999 – candidate country
 2004 – Copenhagen political criteria
 2006 – concrete accession negotiations
Beginning of negotiations with EU
 3. October 2005 => formal beginning of
negotiations by adoption of Negotiating
Framework
 Based on:
Screening process (first stage)
Three pillars
Screening Process
 Screening => analytical examination of the EU
legislation
 EU law divided into 35 chapters
1.) “Analytical screening”: Commission explains its acquis
to Turkey
2.) “Detailed or bilateral screening”: Ankara explains its
laws
 Commission evaluates the degree of development
in all chapters.
Three Pillars
I.
Full implementation of Copenhagen criteria (political,
economic and adoption of acquis)
II.
Complying with the EU acquis:
- harmonization of Turkey’s rules and institutions with
those of the EU
III.
Civil society dialogue:
- dialogue on cultural differences, religion, migration
issues and concerns about minority rights and
terrorism
Turkish Progress on the Requirements
 Criteria needing improvement:
 Economic
 Political
 Ability to assume obligations
Economic Aspect
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No progress made on trade
unions’ rights (based on
standards set by EU and
Int’l Labor Organization)
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Must have the option to
strike
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Must make ability accessible
to conduct collective
bargaining
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Government debt has
decreased
 Since 2001, the share of
debt in relation to GDP
has fallen, and is
expected to continue
decreasing
Political Aspect (1)
 Non-Muslim groups
-continual delay of law protecting other religious
communities
 Freedom of Speech
-improvement in allowing people to assemble
peacefully
 Women’s rights
-legal structure established, but not always applied,
especially in areas of poverty, where sometimes
crimes against women still take place i.e. “honor
crimes”
Political Aspect (2)
 Minimizing corruption
- policies in place are still not strong enough to
deter rampant levels of corruption
 Corporal abuse
- torture still used
Ready to Assume Obligations?
 Right of establishment and freedom to
provide services
 Intellectual/property law
 Competition
 Energy
 Environment
Arguments against Turkish Membership
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Values and culture
Geography
Population size and poverty
Political power
Relations with neighbors
Human right and democracy
CAP
Budgetary costs
Values and Culture
 Predominantly Muslim country (99.8 %
of the population)
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Geography
 Only 3% in geographical Europe
 Turkish capital is in Asia
 Turkey's borders reach Middle Eastern nations
Population Size and Poverty
 expansion almost equal in population to
that of the 2004 Enlargement
 wave of poor Turkish immigration
 high current account deficit, high debt,
and high unemployment
Unemployment
http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/about/activities/cceq/2005q1_cceq.pdf
Political Power
 Its almost 70 million inhabitants will
bestow it the second largest number
of representatives in the European
Parliament, after Germany
Relations with Neighbors
 Cyprus dispute
 Aegean dispute
Human Rights and Democracy
 Concerns about the Turkish state´s
ability to reach European standards in
issues as gender equality, political
freedom, religious freedom and minority
rights
CAP costs
 In general full membership for Turkey of
the EU would require an additional $3.1
bn of agricultural subsidies following the
existing lines of the Common
Agricultural Policy (CAP)
Budgetary Cost Aspect (1)
 starting point
 two variants to this approach:
 a) How much would Turkey receive today if it
were a fully established member?
 b) How much is Turkey likely to receive under
current rules by a likely accession date, e.g.
2015?
Budgetary Cost Aspect (2)
a) Turkey in the EU today:
 Structural Funds, capped at 4 % of its GDP
 Turkey’s GDP around 200 billion euros- its
allocation would be around 8 billion annually
 extending the current CAP to Turkey -approximately
9 billion
b) Turkey in 2015 in an enlarged EU:
 absorption limit has been set at 4 % of recipient
GDP
 Turkish GDP could reach about 4 % of the EU-28
GDP
Arguments for Turkish Membership
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Economical
Political
Energy Resources
Population
Economical(1)
 Top 10 emerging markets in the world
 In 2004 and 2005, growth was above 7%
 In a few years, Turkey will have overtaken
Poland and Romania
Economical(2)
 GDP is set to grow by 6% per year on average
 Contribution to the EU budget would rise from
estimated € 5bn in 2014 to almost € 9bn by
2020
 Turkish population: vast market for European
goods and ready labour force
 It could supplement a labour shortage in “old
Europe” (by 2014, 1 in 4 Turks will be 14 or
less)
Domestic and Foreign Investments
 low labour costs, closeness to a huge potential
Eastern European market and unrestricted
access to the European market would trigger
massive domestic and foreign investments into
Turkey's manufacturing industry
Political
 Strong regional military power
 Second largest standing armed force in NATO
and strongest in the Muslim world
 Important geo-strategic position
 Terrorism concerns
Energy Resources
 Turkey – center plot of energy resources
 Direct piping between Russia and Iran carries
natural gas to Turkey
 Strategical papelines may help EU to maintain
energy guarantee
Population
 Muslim population would be a weight to EU
multi-culturalism efforts
 Might help to prevent potential “clash of
civilizations”
 23% of Turkish population is under 15, a
balance for the increasingly aging population of
the current EU
Conclusion/ Will Turkey Join the
EU?
Latest steps
Public opinion
Latest Steps (1)
 29 Nov. 2006: Commission recommends to
partially suspend membership negotiations
with Turkey
 11 Dec. 2006: EU foreign ministers suspend
talks with Turkey on eight of the 35 negotiating
areas
 1 Jan. 2007: Germany takes over the rotating
Presidency of the EU
Latest Steps (2)
 Turkey: presidential elections in May and
parliamentary elections in November 2007
 negotiation process-“open-ended”
 2012: Membership negotiations end
 2015: Joining date
Public Opinion
 48% of EU citizens are
against Turkey joining
the EU, while about
39% are in favor
 Citizens from new
member states
 Austria
 Sweden
What Do People in Turkey Think
About the Issue?
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http://search.bbc.co.uk/cgibin/search/results.pl?q=turkey+E
U&tab=av&edition=d&recipe=all&
scope=all&start=3
References
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http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/about/activities/cceq/2005q1_cc
eq.pdf
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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4063233.stm
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accession_of_Turkey_to_the_European_U
nion
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http://www.foreignaffairs.org
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http://www.mfa.gov.tr/MFA/ForeignPolicy/MainIssues/TurkeyAndEU/EU
History.htm
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Turkey 2005 Progress Report, European Commission, Brussels 9.
November 2005
Thank you for your
attention!