Transcript Basisvorlesung im Masterstudium GLOBAL STUDIES, LV

Traditions of Forward Looking
and Global Megatrends
in Russia
and the ‘Rest of the World’
Gilbert Ahamer,
Environment Agency Austria
© Gilbert Ahamer
FLIS Workshop
Euroepan Environment Agency, 13 November 2013
What will we see here?
Contemplate theoretical “clarities” along your paths
World systems theory
Critical geography
Dependency theory
Quantitative revolution
Growth theory
Possibilism
Narrative history
Neo-classical economics
Environm. determinism
Keynesian economics
Political economics
Global Studies train: “When do I use which theory?”
VIEWS FROM SOCIAL, ECONOMIC
AND CULTURAL GEOGRAPHIES
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The “magnetic field” of
our globalisation discourse
 Modernisation theory
 Dependency theory
 The concept of modernisation
tries to replace earlier concepts
such as “development” (in case of
negative sign: underdevelopment,
backwardness) or progress by a
value-free term but is nevertheless still tacitly used connected
with an emphasis on values and
teleological orientation.
Global Studies
 Reason for underdevelopment of
countries would not be internal
but external factors such as
especially colonialism. By
executing power the developed
countries would succeed in
keeping the less developed
countries in an ongoing state of
poverty.
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“Why are some rich and some poor?”
 Classical “growth theory” tries to understand causes of economic growth,
it sees economic growth constituted by “production factors” such as
 Capital / investment
 Soil / land
 Labour / workforce
 Technology
 Education
 Human resources
 … and cautiously extends
out to cultural and political
parameters …
 … and strongly believes in
Are economies converging or diverging
correlations of points …?
over the course of time?
?
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See Paul Rosling’s (optimistic) view of development at gapminder, flixxy or youtube
(Hypothesised) timelines of economy
 Nikolai D. Kondratieff’s long waves (Николай Дмитриевич Кондратьев, 1892-1938)
figure from Knox & Agnew 1997)
 “time geography”
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Synopsis of two cyclic theories
 1 Kondratieff cycle = 2 Kuznets cycles (figure from Knox & Agnew 1997)
 The inverse U-shaped Kuznets curve:
mathematically, it produces oscillations
 Compare S.’s “precognitive understandings” in history: Oswald Spängler etc.
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“Big History”
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“Big History”
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“Big History”
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“Big History”
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“Big History”
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“Big History”
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“Big History”
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“Big History”
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“Big History”
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“Big History”
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Main types of view of a global future
• Global Studies
is a multiparadigmatic
science!
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LONG-TERM TRENDS IN SOCIOECONOMIC
AND CIVILISATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
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Representing dynamics globally: data
• Materials and methods in
this step:
• The “Global Change Data
Base” (GCDB, © G. Ahamer) =
• Global data sets for
–
–
–
–
population
land use
economy
energy
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Transformation of co-ordinates
 Instead of plotting reality as a function of time
 We decide to plot reality as a function of GDP/cap
 … in order to better perceive structural changes and
patterns of global dynamic change
 evolutionary time of
development:
simpler graphical structure
= real time:
complex graphic structure
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time t
GDP/cap
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9 community&social services
8 finance & insurance
5 construction
3 manufacturing
6 trade
1 agriculture
[% GDP]
2 mining
relative
importance
at the moment
4 electricity, gas, water
… inspired by
evolving
patterns in
energy
structures
(Marchetti &
Nakicenovic at
IIASA):
7 transport & communication
Evolving pattern in economic structures
100
10
1
 = what increases strongly:
electricity & gas
communication
financial institutions
medical services




 = what increases:
metal products & machinery
water works
construction
wholesale & retail trade
insurance
real estate & business serv.
dwellings
medical services
social & related services
recreational & cultural serv.
personal & household serv..











 = what at least does not decrease:
paper & print

chemicals

0.1
10
100
1000
10000
[$/ cap]
direction of civilisatoric evolution
1
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Growth rates in the global agricultural system
average annual
increase rate
The agricultural scenario for the HRBM:
average annual increase rates 1960-91 displayed for the continents
3%
5.0% 4.3%
2%
sum of all six annual
factors 1960-91:
(1) AREA DEMANDED
cereals area harv. /
cereals production:
(2) PRODUCTIVITY
1%
cereals production /
cereals supply
(3) TRADE
0%
cereals supply / cereals
food:
(4) DISTRIBUTION,
OTHER USES
Structural change in
nutrition habits:
(5) QUALITY OF FOOD
-1%
-2%
cereals food / capita
(excl. struct. change):
(6) AMOUNT OF FOOD
-3%
population increase for
1960-91:
(7) POPUL. GROWTH
World
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Africa
Asia
Europe
N+C
America
Detailed explanation of this EU project: read here 24
Oceania
South
America
f. Soviet
Union
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Structural shifts for energy sources
• How do percentages of fuels change?
shares
change rates of shares
We observe the following transitions:
•
•
•
•
•
Population transition
Land use change transition / deforestation tr.
Agricultural & food transition
Transition of economic sectors
Energy transition
• Nonetheless, we don’t believe in determinism:
design, act and construct the world!
• Hope = (voluntary) learning effects
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EVOLUTION AND CHANGE IN
STRUCTURES OF NEEDS
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A principal evolutionary pattern?
 Evolution often seems to follow a sigma curve (saturation curve)
upper limit
final value, e.g. man- made world
Z = final value: state
succeeding
parameters
of development
= final value: flow
direction of development
initial value: flow =
initial value: state = A
initial value, e.g. natural worldi
lower limit
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Thinking in paths as a hypothesis ...
• ... means: along evolution towards higher
GDP/cap some paths of development are more
likely than others
• Possible heuristic confirmation by phenomena:
establish correlations
• example: the “growth literature”:
Y = f(“factors”) such as capital, land, human
ressources, education, institutional structure ...
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A possible overall view on evolution!
 Do targets themselves evolve along evolution?
 ... the more targets are fulfilled, the more they seem to decrease in importance
 We see: systemic structures themselves evolve, not only levels of values
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A possible genesis of “targets”?
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One ”preconceptive understanding”
(Schumpeter)
A proposed paradigm
(“para – deiknumi“ = “up-show”)
evolution
Pierre Teilhard de Chardin (1950),
a colleague of Vernadsky
 Techno-socio-economic
convergence – divergence?
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Paul Raskin: “Transitions”
 Paul Raskin at SEI and his
team produced a seminal
book (see ppt in WebCT)
:
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Shifting views: a principle along evolution?
Global
Change &
Environment
Work
Wellness
Tradit.
ethics
movement
into focus of
perception
Search
for new
land
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movement
out of focus
Population
growth
Gilbert Ahamer
Thank you...
... for your comments and critical questions!
!!