Transcript FANRPAN

The food crisis, water crisis
and economic development:
Food scarcity
Water scarcity
Poverty
Simon Cook
Basin focal projects
Challenge Program on Water and Food
My talk…
• Global crisis of food, water and
development
• How does this crisis appear in river
basins?
• Realities and underlying causes?
• Conclusions and policy targets
FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09
We analyze patterns in 10 basins globally
Niger
Why study at a GLOBAL scale?
• To understand drivers of problems
– These are not random
• To compare across basins
– Solutions often come from outside
• To enable judgments under uncertainty
– Sometimes it helps to know why
FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09
World food & water crisis
• Food crisis
• Water crisis
…World Water Crisis:
Declining per capita availability of water
‘000 m3
16
Africa
14
12
10
World
8
6
Asia
4
2
MENA
0
1960
1990
2025
Economic development
The poorest rely on agriculture – the livelihood base
•
• Other activities contribute later
Agriculture vs GNI
Gross National Income ($/capita)
50,000
40,000
30,000
Size of bubble
proportional to rural
population
20,000
10,000
0
-10
0
10
20
30
-10,000
Agricultural contribution to GDP (% )
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40
50
Global picture
• Food production must increase
• …food production consumes huge volumes
of water
• Other demands also increasing
• Food & water systems need codevelopment to support broad change
• …without compromising environmental
flows
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What the food & water crisis
looks like in river basins
Limpopo
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Yellow River:
China’s sorrow
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Mekong:
Conflict over hydropower
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Ganges
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Andes
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Summary of the news from basins
• News tends to report events, not causes
– Crises make good headlines of conflict, catastrophe,
• Longer term stories not so sexy
– Success is a slow steady process
– Failure of the food and water system a (non story) of
‘not much happening’
FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09
Looking more closely at factors in
basins that influence development
•
•
•
•
Water
Water
Water
Water
availability
use
related hazard
productivity
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Water availability
less influential than we might think
Per capita
GNI vsincome
Water vs.
water availability
50,000
GNI ($/cap PPP)
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
-500
0
-10,000
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Size of bubble proportional to agriculture contribution to GDP
Water availability (m3/cap)
World Bank, 2008
Water availability is one poverty factor…of many
Drought
Poverty
Access to
credit
From Sao Francisco
Torres et al., 2008
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Poor
education
Volta
Water use
• Grassland dominates
water use
• Rainfed crops >>
irrigated
• Runoff generated
differentially within
basin
Devaraj de Condappa
Nile:
Rainfed agriculture
by far the biggest user
Grassland 45%
RF crops 27%
Irrigation ~1%
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How people develop from water use:
Globally, irrigation supports dense populations….
Ganges
Indus
Water use (m cm )
Water use (mcm)
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
0
350,000
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
Irrigated
Irrigated
Woodland +
Woodland +
Grass
Grass
Rainfed
Rainfed
200
150
100
50
400
0
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
population (m illions)
population (millions)
Mekong
Yellow
Water use (m cm )
Water use (mcm)
0
20,000 40,000
0
60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000
Irrigated
Irrigated
Woodland +
Woodland +
Grass
Grass
Rainfed
200
150
100
population (millions)
50
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
Rainfed
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
population (m illions)
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Relative values better than absolutes
…but not in Africa
(or Latin America)
Lim popo
Volta
Water use (m cm )
Water use (m cm )
0
0
50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000
50,000
100,000
150,000
Irrigated
Woodland +
Grass
Rainfed
20
15
10
population (m illions)
5
20
0
15
5
0
Nile
Sao Francisco
Water use (mcm)
Water use (m cm )
0
10
population (m illions)
50,000
100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
Irrigated
Woodland +
Grass
Rainfed
20
15
10
population (m illions)
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5
0
200
150
100
population (millions)
50
0
Water related hazard
• Flood
• Drought
• Disease
If uncontrolled, a major obstacle to investment
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Limpopo
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Drought
Eastham 2009 (Preliminary draft)
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0
Volta
100%
Malaria prevalence
Water productivity
• Benefit per m3 water consumed
• Key diagnostic of how much people gain
• Applies to
– irrigated crops
– rainfed crops, livestock
– fish
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Water productivity
must respond faster than demand
Demand
response
WP
crisis
time
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Water productivity:
In some places responding to demand
Water productivity, kg/m
3
0.800
0.600
VN, Mekong Delta
Laos
Vietnam
Thailand
VN Central
Highlands
0.400
Cambod
Laos
Cambodia
0.200
0.000
1990
Rice
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Vietnam
NE Thailand
Vietnam
highland
1995
2000
Year
2005
Vietnam
River De
Mac Kirby, 2007
African basins,
Wproductivity low or patchy
– Limpopo,
• generally v. low (a few
high patches)
– Volta
• V low but with some
patches
– Niger
• WPr very low
– Nile,
• Large areas of very low
WPr
• Extremely high in Delta
(including aquaculture)
Volta
Generally
<<0.2 kg/m3
IRD, 2007
Potential= ~2 kg/m3
Actual water productivity well below
potential
• Basins in Asia
responding to
pressure…
Wpr (potential)
Yellow
Ganges
• …most in Africa
‘dormant’
Mekong
Nile
Limpopo
Volta
Niger
Final thoughts
•
The water and food crisis is really a
development crisis
Agriculture vs GNI
Gross National Income ($/capita)
50,000
40,000
30,000
What factors are
preventing people moving
“up the slide”?
20,000
10,000
0
-10
0
10
20
30
-10,000
Agricultural contribution to GDP (% )
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40
50
4 causes of water-related poverty
• Water scarcity:
– A problem but not necessarily the worst
• Lack of access or unequal sharing:
– Widespread problem, but less certain effect
• Exposure to hazard:
– Drought, flood, water-related diseases
• Low water productivity:
– Very widespread
– Other factors prevent full benefit
FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09
4 targets for water-related policy
• Water scarcity:
– (not sure what can be done)
• Lack of access or unequal sharing:
– Institutions, informed and transparent politics
• Exposure to hazard:
– Forecasting, mitigation, risk sharing
• Low water productivity:
– Focus on agriculture as the first driver of change
– Institutes to support integrated development
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Thank you
FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09