Transcript TREASURY OF STATE Rio Grande do Sul/Brasil

TREASURY OF STATE
Rio Grande do Sul/Brasil
Presentation for workshop
November / 09 / 2009
Macroeconomic background
Economic Growth
Debt/GDP
25,0%
23,3%
21,2% 21,0% 21,0% 20,3%
20,0%
19,1% 19,7% 19,4%
15,0%
10,0%
7,0%
5,0%
4,7%
3,3%
0,0%
1,1%
2002
3,8%
1,6%
2003
0,0%
2004
2005
2006
-2,8%
2007
-5,0%
In 2002, we reviewed the GDP metodology
2009 is a projection
2008
2009
Debt structure
Internal vs External
100%
99%
3,0%
98%
4,0%
4,3%
4,7%
5,0%
4,5%
3,7%
3,0%
2,1%
4,8%
6,1%
97%
6,1%
96%
95%
94%
93%
92%
97,0%
96,0% 95,7%
95,3%
95,0% 95,5%
96,3%
93,9%
97,0%
97,9%
95,2%
93,9%
91%
90%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009*
Dívidas Internas
Dívidas Externas
Monectary correction
IGP-M e IGP-DI
TR
Variação Cambial (US$, EUR e IEN)
TJLP
Selic
100%
95%
4,8%
6,2%
6,3%
6,9%
8,5%
6,7%
5,9%
4,8%
3,8%
2,6%
6,7%
5,1%
4,0%
2,7%
4,6%
6,0%
90%
3,2%
5,2%
6,8%
10,3%
9,3%
8,3%
9,4%
7,6%
85%
92,3%
80%
82,2%
75%
70%
85,5%
81,8%
82,9%
81,7%
82,8%
87,2%
88,5%
90,3%
89,8%
91,8%
Characteristics of RS Debt
• Intralimits and extralimits
Composition about Agreement 1997INTRALIMITE;
100,00%
90,83%
80,00%
60,00%
40,00%
20,00%
EXTRALIMITE;
9,17%
0,00%
1- Intralimite: There are contracts limited to 13% of RLR. It has revenue
guarantees .
2- Extralimite: It can be over the 13% of RLR. It is a focus of new operations.
Debt Restructuring 2008
RGS: Extra-limite debt service profile 2007-2028
(in percent of Net Real Revenues)
RGS: Restructured and non restructured extra-limite debt service, 2008-2028
(in percent of net current revenues)
5,00%
6,0%
Smoothing the debt
service profile
4,50%
5,0%
4,00%
3,50%
4,0%
(% Net Real Revenue)
3,00%
3,0%
2,0%
2,50%
2,00%
1,50%
1,00%
0,50%
1,0%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Non restructured Debt Service
Restructured Debt Service
Loan WB
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
0,0%
2009
2008
0,00%
14,50%
14,00%
13,50%
13,00%
12,50%
12,00%
11,50%
11,00%
10,50%
10,00%
9,50%
9,00%
8,50%
8,00%
Service
convergence to
Senate limit
Limite Senado
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
11,5% of NCR
Limite serviço
2,6
2,4
Stock
convergence to
Senate limit
2,2
2,0
1,8
1,6
1,4
1,2
2019
2018
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2009
2008
2017
Senate Limit
2010
Debt Stock/NCR
2007
2005
2006
1,0
Current debt management strategy
Change extralimits debt with interest high for others
with lower cost :
 ProRural – Currencys floating 8,3% changed to
a fix 2,7% interest rate (done)
 INSS – to strech out (done)
 Analizing to fix interest rates
To adhere in an Emergency Program against crisis of
Federal Government (94 million reais - BNDES)
To renegociate 1997 agreement in two ways
Reviewing interest rate
Changing inflation correction
2009 Borrowing strategy
Mix of opportunities with macroeconomic scenary analysis
We are looking for a progressive increase of fiscal balances
a) Containment of expenses and enhance tax efficiency
b) Continues with primary surplus in order to pay anual service
debt
Backgroud Analysis
•Economic growth around Zero in 2009
•Monetary correction ( deflation in some months)
•SELIC – National interest rate around 8,75%
•Incomes under the budget,but equal to 2008.
•Libor extremely low
Decision making process
•Internal
In the Strategic Plan of Finance Secretary we
present actions and plans to achieve our goals,
specially fiscal balance
Debt Office
Study
Treasury
Suggest
Finance Secretary
Approval
Governor
Approval
Deputy Assembly
Discuss and
Authorize
• COGEFIN – Comission of States Treasury
All states have seat in a board that elaborates
studies to update the conditions for Regionals
Debt.
Accountability framework
• We still don’t have a public document
•We have:
Reports to National Treasury
Internal reports about World Bank operation 2008
Trimestral reports about opportunities
•We are working into:
Middle office Section ( already using analytica)
Anual report (march/2010)
Many courses about debt management
We are detecting passive contingent and working on it
Jorge Luis Tonetto
[email protected]