Transcript China’s Power Sector Development

Towards a Low Carbon Future:
China’s Green Development Policy and Practice
Ye QI
Climate and Carbon Policy Institute (CPI)
Tsinghua University
&
China Sustainable Energy Program
The Energy Foundation
Presentation Overview
•
•
•
•
2
Historical background
Recent trends in China
China’s policies for low carbon
development
Conclusions
Economic, Energy, and GHG Emissions Trends
China has experienced extraordinary
growth of its economy and energy
consumption in recent years
3
Economic Development in China
GDP growth rate higher than 9% over past 30 years
China's GDP and Growth Rate
2001-2008
Billion RMB (Constant 2000 RMB)
25,000
25
21,340
19,578
20,000
20
17,496
15,678
14,196
15,000
15
12,896
10,745
11,721
13.0
11.6
10,000
8.3
9.1
10.0
10.1
10
10.4
9.0
5,000
5
-
0
2001
4
2002
2003
2004
Billion Constant 2000 Yuan
2005
2006
2007
Real Growth Rate (%)
2008
Growth
Rate (%)
Energy Use in China and the U.S.
US 2006
100
Industry dominates energy use in China
90
China 1980-2006
Agriculture
Commercial Buildings
Residential Buildings
Transportation
Industry
Mt coal equivalent
2,000
1,500
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
1,000
Quads
2,500
40
30
30
20
20
500
10
0
1980
5
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
Source: National Bureau of Statistics, various years, China Statistical Abstract.
National Bureau of Statistics, 2007, China Energy Statistical Yearbook.
2004
0
2006
10
Commercial Buildings
Residential Buildings
Transport
Industry and Agriculture
0
Source:
U.S. Energy Information Administration,
2008. Annual Energy Outlook.
Economic, Energy, and GHG Emissions Trends
China’s economy is heavily dependent on
its coal resources
6
China’s Commercial Energy is Heavily Coal-Based
3,000
China's Primary Energy Consumption
1980-2006
2,500
Hydro & Nuclear
Natural Gas
Mtce
2,000
Petroleum
Coal
1,500
1,000
500
0
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
7
Relatively High Share of Coal Use in China
Coal-based Primary Energy Consumption
in Major Countries, 2007
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
China
8
India
USA
Indonesia
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008.
Japan
European Russian
Union Federation
Brazil
World
Average
Coal Dominates China’s Fossil Fuel Reserve Base
Oil
Natural
Gas
Coal
238 billion tons coal equivalent
97% total fossil fuel reserve base
9
Source: NBS, 2007.
Per Capita Proven Coal Reserves
Per-Capita Proven Coal Reserves
(tonnes/person)
China has limited domestic coal resources
4,000
3,645
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,022
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
1,109
1,009
805
730
197
-
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008; World Bank, World Development Indicators database 2008.
10
87
50
37
Economic, Energy, and GHG Emissions Trends
China now emits more energy-related
carbon dioxide (CO2) than the U.S. in
absolute terms, but not if measured on a
per capita or cumulative basis
11
Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Heavy reliance on coal in China leads to CO2 emission levels similar to the U.S.
Energy-Related CO2 Emissions
1950-2007
35,000
Other Global Emissions
30,000
China
US
Mt CO2
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
1950
12
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Source: Historical 1950-2005 US, China and global emissions data from Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Carbon Dioxide
Information Analysis Center; 2006-2007 US, China and global emissions data are preliminary estimates from Carbon Dioxide
Information Analysis Center.
Comparison of U.S. and China EnergyRelated Emissions – Three Perspectives
Source: Asia Society, 2008. Common Challenge, Collaborative Response: A Roadmap for U.S.-China Cooperation on Energy and
Climate Change. http://www.asiasociety.org/taskforces/climateroadmap/US_China_Roadmap_on_Climate_Change.pdf
13
Per Capita
Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Chinese emissions are far lower than the U.S. on a per capita basis
Per Capita Energy Related CO2 Emissions
1950-2007
Tonnes of CO2/Person
25
20
15
China
US
10
Global Average
5
1950
14
1954
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
Source: Historical 1950-2005 US, China and global emissions data from Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Carbon
Dioxide Information Analysis Center; 2006-2007 US, China and global emissions data are preliminary estimates
from Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center; 2006-2007 population data of China from China Statistical
Bureau; 2006-2007 US and global population data from US Census.
Recent Trends in China
From 1980 to 2002, energy intensity in
China decreased significantly.
This was followed by a very large and
unexpected increase in energy intensity
from 2002 to 2005.
15
Energy Intensity (E/GDP) Declined Steadily
From 1980 to 2002
Remarkably, China reduced energy use per unit of GDP while industrializing
4,500
kg coal equivalent/10,000 (2000) RMB
4,000
3,500
3,000
Average Annual Decline of
5% per year
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
1980
16
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
Source: National Bureau of Statistics, China Statistical Abstract, various years.
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
Trend Reversed in 2002
China joined WTO in 2001 and became the world’s factory – one of several
factors that caused the large increase in energy intensity
4,500
kg coal equivalent/10,000 (2000) RMB
4,000
3,500
Average Annual Decline of
5% per year
3,000
2,500
Average Annual Increase of
2% per year
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
1980
17
1985
1990
Source: National Bureau of Statistics, China Statistical Abstract, various years.
1995
2000
2005
China’s Energy Intensity Compared to the U.S.
Comparison is based on current exchange rates and
thus not reflective of physical energy intensities
Source: Asia Society, 2008. Common Challenge, Collaborative Response: A Roadmap for U.S.-China Cooperation on Energy and
Climate Change. http://www.asiasociety.org/taskforces/climateroadmap/US_China_Roadmap_on_Climate_Change.pdf
18
China’s Policies to Reduce Energy Use and
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Major policy initiatives were introduced
in 2005 to reverse the trends in energy
demand growth experienced from
2002 to 2005
19
In 2005, China Adopted an
Energy Intensity Reduction Target
• November 2005: Premier Wen Jiabao at the Plenary of
the Communist Party: “Energy use per unit of GDP must
be reduced by 20% from 2006 to 2010”
• China’s 11th Five Year Plan (2006-2010): outlined goal of
reducing energy consumption per unit of GDP by 20%
between 2006 and 2010
• Depending upon the GDP growth rate - 2010 energy
− 5-year savings of about 700 Mtce (19.5 Quads)
20
China’s 5- Year Energy
Intensity Reduction Target
20% energy intensity of GDP reduction by 2010
Note: energy intensity values are calculated using deflated year 2000 GDP values; expressed in kilograms coal equivalent primary
energy consumption per reminbi GDP.
21
Implementation of the government’s 20% energy
intensity reduction target
%
10
Cumulative
}
}
Goal
Actual
Key Energy-Efficiency Policies and Programs
Energy Policies
Fuel Consumption Limits For Passenger Cars
Medium and Long-Term Plan for Energy Conservation
Renewable Energy Law
Government Procurement Program
National Energy Efficient Design Standard for Public Buildings
Eleventh Five-Year Plan
The State Council Decision on Strengthening Energy Conservation
Revised Consumption Tax for Larger, Energy-Inefficient Vehicles
Reduced Export Tax Rebates for Many Low-Value-Added But High EnergyConsuming Products
Top-1000 Energy-Consuming Enterprise Program
"Green Purchasing" Program
Revision of Energy Conservation Law
Allocation of Funding on Energy Efficiency and Pollution Abatement
China Energy Technology Policy Outline 2006
Government Procurement Program
National Phase III Vehicle Emission Standards
Interim Administrative Method for Incentive Funds for Heating and Metering
and Energy Efficiency Retrofit for Existing Residential Buildings in China's
Northern Heating Area
Law on Corporate Income Tax (preferential tax treatment for investment in
energy-saving and environmentally-friendly projects and equipment)
Allocation of Funding on Energy Efficiency and Pollution Abatement
Appliance Standards and Labeling
23
Date Effective
2004
2005
2005
2005
2005
2006
2006
2006
Responsible Agency
National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC)
NDRC and Ministry of Finance (MOF)
Ministry of Construction (MOC)
NDRC
State Council
MOF and the State Administration of Taxation
2006
2006
2006
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
MOF
NDRC
Ministry of Environmental Protection (MEP) and MOF
National People's Congress and NDRC
MOF and NDRC
NDRC and the Ministry of Science and Technology
NDRC and MOF
2007
MOF
2008
2008
NDRC
MOF and NDRC
General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection
and Quarantine
Various Years
Initial Results of Top-1000 Program
• Top-1000 Enterprises Energy Use Report - 2007
– 954 enterprises submitted statistics
– 942 enterprises submitted energy audit reports
• Top-1000 Enterprises saved 20 Mtce (0.6 EJ, 0.56 Quads) in 2006
• Recently reported 2007 annual savings – 38 Mtce (1 Quad)
• Two scenarios:
– 2010 Target Achieved
• 100 Mtce (2.8 Quads) = ~240 MtCO2
– Current Trends
• 175 Mtce (4.9 Quads) = ~420 MtCO2
Top-1000 Program on track to deliver ~20% of the energy savings
needed to meet the 2010 20% E/GDP goal
24
Industry - Top-1000 Industry Program
Annual CO2 reductions (million tons)
245
250
200
150
174
142
100
50
49
0
2006
2007
2010 Goal
AB 32 2020
Goal
Renewable Energy
• Installed wind capacity doubled in 2008
reaching 12.8 GW and exceeding
original targets
Installed Wind
GW
32
Recent Achievements in China
With these strong policies and
programs, China has been able to
reverse the increase of energy use per
unit of GDP and has made remarkable
progress in improving the country’s
energy efficiency and reducing energyrelated GHG emissions.
Energy Use in China: Recent Trends
4,500
kg coal equivalent/10,000 (2000) RMB
4,000
1980-2002:
Average Annual Decline of
5% per year
3,500
3,000
2,500
2005-2006:
1.7% decrease
2,000
2006-2007:
3.66% decrease
1,500
500
0
1980
28
2007-2008:
4.59% decrease
2002-2005:
Average Annual Increase of
2% per year
1,000
1985
1990
1995
Source: National Bureau of Statistics, China Statistical Abstract, various years.
2000
2005
CHINA’S GREEN STIMULUS
•Economic Stimulus Dollars Devoted
to Green Projects (Billion USD)
•Green Stimulus Dollars as a ratio of
2008 GDP
4.6%
$201
$94
0.7%
US
CHINA
US
CHINA
Stimulus data from HSBC Global Research March 31, 2009 updates to the report “A Climate for Recovery: The Color of Stimulus Goes Green”.
GDP data from IMF world economic outlook data, retrieved April 2009.
CONCLUSIONS
• High carbon intensity;
• Leading in rate of decarbonization;
• Long way to go towards low
carbon economy