Transcript Diapositive 1 - Needsproject

General
overview
renewable energy
and
ENERGY
IN THE of
MEDITERRANEAN
REGION:
energy efficiency in Southern and Eastern
Situation and prospects
Mediterranean
countries
Dr Houda BEN JANNET ALLAL, OME
Dr Houda BEN JANNET ALLAL, OME
•
•
•
•
OME
Context
Present situation and prospects
Conclusion
Missions & Objectives
Objectives
Think Tank
Consulting & Advice
Monitoring & Scenarios
Cooperation & Partnership
- Reference on Mediterranean Energy Issues
- Expertise
- Studies and Publications
- Mediterranean Energy Database & Scenarios
-Promoting Cooperation & Partnership
- Mutual Technical Assistance between Members
- Capacity building
- Communication and Events
“OME makes things happen”
Demography in the Mediterranean Basin
400
350
SEMCs
millions inhabitants
300
250
200
NMCs
150
100
50
0
1950
Source: Plan Bleu, OME
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Demography
Population in the MCs (145 M in 2006)
Tunisia
7%
Algeria
23%
Morocco
21%
The MCs population grew at
1.7%/y between 2000-2006.
Annual growth by country is
1% for Tunisia, 1.2% for
Morocco, 1.6% for Algeria & 2%
for Egypt.
During the period 2000-2006,
population increased from 132
to 145 M & the urban pop. from
67 to 76 M.
Egypt
49%
These increases represent 13 M
more inhabitants, & 9.4 M more
people in the cities.
Urban Population
(share
of the total)
Urban Population (Share
of the Total)
70
60
Algeria
50
share (%)
of Total Pop
40
Egypt
Morocco
Tunisia
30
20
10
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Urbanization rate in the MCs increased from 50.5% to 51.9% between
2000 & 2006.
Currently, the urban rate varies from about 43% in Egypt to 65.3 % in
Tunisia (63.3 % in Algeria & 55.5 % in Morocco).
Economic Development in the Mediterranean
GDP using exchange rates (billion $2000)
7000
2005-2020
Average growth per year:
Total MED. 3.0%
NMCs 2.5%; SEMCs 4.9%
SEMCs
NMCs
2000-2005
Avg. growth per year:
Total MED. 2.1%
NMCs 1.7%; SEMCs 3.8%
6000
5000
4000
19%
1971-2000
Avg. growth per year
Total MED. 2.9%
NMCs 2.7%; SEMCs 3.7%
3000
23%
17%
16%
14%
13%
81%
2000
12%
77%
83%
84%
86%
1000
87%
88%
0
1971
1980
1990
2000
2005
2010
2020
Economic Growth
GDP (in $2000) in the MCs (257 b$ in 2006)
Tunisia
10%
Algeria
27%
Morocco
16%
Annual growth rate is 4.5% for all
MCs (3.8% in Egypt, 4.2% in
Morocco, 4.9% in Algeria & 7% in
Tunisia).
Egypt
47%
Tunisia & Algeria recorded the
strongest
economic
growth
between 2000 and 2006.
3000
GDP per capita (in $2000 per capita)
Algeria
Egypt
2500
GDP & GDP per capita are steadily
increasing in all MCs.
GDP of the MCs amounts to 257b$.
Morocco
Tunisia
GDP per capita is higher for Tunisia
and Algeria, followed by Egypt and
Morocco. Growth of GDP/capita
depends
also
on
population
growth.
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
From large exporter to totally importer
countries
The SMCs are unequally endowed with hydrocarbon
resources
Range between large exporters to totally importers
Two countries (Algeria & Egypt) are high energy
exporters and two countries (Tunisia & Morocco) are
net energy importers
It is nowadays widely recognised that energy will
continue to play an important role in all the MCs,
importers or exporters of energy.
The national energy policies are largely linked to the
energy resources available in each of these countries
Oil (Mt) & Gas (bcm) Reserves
Total Oil Reserves = 6145 Mt
Total Gas Reserves = 8340 bcm
4580
400
1870
1400
3900
1500
445
Source: Reserves from BP & CEDIGAZ
Oil Reserves
Gas Reserves
370
Gas Exports in the MCs ( 70 Mtoe in 2006)
Oil Exports in the MCs ( 87 Mtoe in 2006)
Egypt
4%
Egypt
20%
Algeria
80%
Algeria
96%
Oil Imports in the MCs (9 Mtoe in 2006)
Tunisia
9%
Algeria
Egypt
Morocco
91%
Primary energy consumption (113 Mtoe in 2006)
Tunisia
7%
Morocco
12%
Algeria
32%
Number
of
customers
in
residential sector is 26.6 million
for electricity and 2.5 million for
natural gas.
Egypt
49%
Although
the
global
electrification
rate
reached
96.6%, about 6-10 million of
persons still have no access to
electricity.
Coal Hydro RE
3% 1%
5%
Oil
45%
N.Gas
46%
The 145-million population in
MCs is consuming 112 Mtoe of
primary energy (of wh. 53 Mtoe
of gas, 52 Mtoe oil & 6 Mtoe coal)
& 154 TWh of electricity.
Efforts are deployed in the
renewable energy sector in the
MCs particularly in wind and
solar energy and PV installations
for electrification of remote
villages,
isolated
rural
households and rural schools.
Primary Energy Consumption by Source (in 1000 toe )
120000
RE
100000
Hydro
80000
N.Gas
60000
Oil
40000
20000
Coal
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Electricity production in the MCS (175 TWh in 2006)
Morocco
11%
Tunisia
8%
Algeria
20%
Egypt
61%
Hydro
8%
N. Gas
74%
RE
1%
Coal
7%
Oil
10%
Electricity Generation by source in the MCs (in TWh)
180
RE
160
140
Hydro
120
100
Gas
80
Oil
60
40
Coal
20
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
RURAL ELECTRIFICATION RATE
100
(%)
90
80
Algeria
70
Egypt
Morocco
60
Tunisia
50
40
30
20
10
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Energy indicators
ENERGY per capita (in koe/capita )
ELECTRICITY per capita (in kWh/capita )
1200
1200
Algeria
1000
1000
800
Egypt
800
600
600
Morocco
400
200
Tunisia
400
200
0
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Energy intensity
toe/GDP $2000
0,6
0,6
0,5
0,5
Algeria
Egypt
0,4
Morocco
Tunisia
0,4
0,3
0,3
0,2
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Electricity intensity
kWh/GDP PPP
0,34
0,29
Algeria
0,24
Egypt
Morocco
Tunisia
0,19
0,14
0,09
0,04
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
RE in SEMCs: high potential but relatively modest
present situation
Characteristics of wind resources in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean countries
Wind speed
(m/s)
Wind
potential
(MW)
Algeria
2-6
Egypt
6 - 11
Na
20 000
Libya
5–
10.5
Na
Morocco Tunisia
8 - 11
7 - 10
6000
2000
Turkey
5-11
88000 (technical) and
10000 to 12000
economic
RE installed capacity 2006 in the SEMCs (excluding large hydro) MW
Algeria
85
Egypt
-
Libye
Small hydro (321
MW)
Wind (410 MW)
0.5
225
PV systems (13.3
1
3
1
MW)
Geothermal
Biomass
36
Source: OME
* 2007 data (60 MW have been inaugurated on April 2007)
Morocco
30
Tunisia
30
Turkey
176
114*
6
20
2
50
0.3
20.4
0.1
Source: OME
900000
Solar Water Heating (m2)
800000
700000
Tunisia
m2
Morocco
600000
Egypt
Algeria
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Solar Water Heating (825 000 m2 in 2006)
Tunisia
19%
Algeria
Morocco
11%
Egypt
70%
PV capacity in the MCs (26 MWp in 2006)
Tunisia
8%
Algeria
9%
Egypt
20%
Morocco
63%
Nb of HH with PV systems PV (54856 in 2006)
Tunisia
21%
Algeria
2%
Egypt
8%
Morocco
69%
Wind Capacity Installed (MW)
350
300
Tunisia
250
Morocco
MW
Egypt
Algeria
200
150
100
50
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2005
2004
2006
Wind installed capacity (304 MW in 2006)
Morocco
18%
Tunisia
6%
Algeria
Egypt
76%
1000
Wind Generation (GWh)
900
800
GWh
700
Tunisia
Morocco
600
Egypt
Algeria
500
400
300
200
100
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Wind generation (904 TWh in 2006)
Tunisia
4%
Algeria
Morocco
20%
Egypt
76%
Hydro Generation (in GWh)
18000
Tunisia
16000
14000
GWh
Morocco
12000
10000
Egypt
8000
6000
4000
Algeria
2000
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Hydro Generation in the MCs (14.5 TWh in 2006)
Morocco
11%
Tunisia
1%
Algeria
1%
Egypt
87%
Energy dependency is increasing …
100%
Global Energy Dependency (%)
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
NMC Importers
40%
SEMC Importers
30%
20%
10%
0%
1971
1980
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Oil Dependency (%)
2020
Natural Gas Dependency (%)
100%
100%
90%
80%
80%
60%
NMC Importers
NMC Importers
SEMC Importers
70%
40%
SEMC Importers
60%
20%
50%
0%
40%
1971
1980
2000
2005
2020
1971
1980
2000
2005
2010
2020
The region is also facing climate change problems …
Source : UNF, Sigma XI, 2007
…which are expected to be more challenging in the future
Source : IPCCC, 2007 WGI
Energy related CO2 emissions in the MCs (in Mt)
CO2 emissions per capita (in kg CO2 )
Energy related CO2 emissions (in Mt CO2 )
2500
300
Tunisia
250
2000
200
Morocco
1500
150
Egypt
1000
100
Algeria
50
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
500
0
2005
2000
2001
2002
CO2 emissions in the MCs (273 Mt in 2006)
Morocco
13%
Tunisia
8%
Egypt
50%
Algeria
29%
2003
2004
2005
CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption in the Mediterranean
SEMCs
NMCs
3000
CO2 Emissions (in Mt CO2)
2500
45%
38%
2000
33%
32%
1500
26%
16%
1000
11%
55%
84%
500
74%
68%
67%
62%
89%
0
1971
1980
1990
2000
2005
2010
2020
Source: OME
“On current trends, we are on course for an
unstable, dirty & expensive energy future” quote
from IEA Executive Director
• A more sustainable future is needed
• A more sustainable future is
possible
• High potential for energy efficiency
• Renewable energy have also an
important role to play
• OME is working on these issues
through its RESDC
No single solution….
a portfolio of technologies is required
Solutions depend on …
Efficiency in buildings,
Industry and End-Use
products
Energy efficiency in the
transport sector
Advanced power generation
and grid
Countries,
Resources,
Needs,
Choices,
Market,
Timing,
Infrastructure …
Renewable energy
technologies
Biomass, CHP
CO2 Capture and Storage
• Barriers need to be removed,
particularly
– Institutional and legal barriers: in most of
the countries, there is no institutional and
regulatory framework specific to RE
– Competing resources: RE are competing
with conventional energies relatively
abundant, widely deployed and subsidised
in several countries of the region. But, RE
are most often already competitive in
isolated rural areas
• Regional and international
context is favourable
– Regional: EC, EIB, MEDREP, MEDENER,
MEDITEP, OME
– Kyoto Protocol: the Clean Development
Mechanism, an opportunity not yet fully
exploited
– The Mediterranean Strategy for
Sustainable Development: a framework in
favour to RE and EE
– RE perspectives are encouraging
RE perspectives are encouraging in the SEMCs
Orientations for RE in the SEMCs
Algeria
Yes
Egypt
Ongoing
Libya
No
5% of
power
generation
based on
solar
energy by
2010
20% RE
share in
electricity
demand
by 2020
6% of RE
share in
electricity
demand
by 2020
Feed in tariffs
RE funds
RE subsidies
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
R&D law
Public
awareness
programmes
Yes
RE specific
law
Targets
(not
mandatory)
Yes
Morocco
Ongoing
Tunisia
Yes
RE: 10%
Yes, by
share in technology
TPES and
(wind,
20% in
SWH, …)
electricity
generation
by 2012
No
Foreseen
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
(SWH)
Yes
Yes
(strong)
Turkey
Yes
20062012: +
926 MW
RE
20102015: +
625 MW
Yes
Yes
Source: OME
Thank you
Contact
[email protected]