Transcript Inflation Report August 2005

Inflation Report
August 2005
Demand
Chart 2.1
Nominal GDP
Chart 2.2
Contributions to quarterly growth in consumer spending(a)
(a) Chained volume measure. Excluding non-profit institutions serving households.
(b) Other spending is on net tourism and non-durable goods.
Chart 2.3
Households’ quarterly interest payments and receipts and the repo rate
(a) Includes non-profit institutions serving households.
(b) Quarterly average. Last data point is 2005 Q2.
Chart 2.4
Households’ real post-tax labour income
Chart 2.5
GfK consumer confidence: households’ financial situation over the next
twelve months
Source: Martin Hamblin GfK.
Chart 2.6
Real house prices(a) and consumption(b)
Sources: Bank of England, Nationwide and ONS.
(a) Real house price measure, calculated as the nominal Nationwide series deflated by the consumption expenditure deflator.
(b) Chained volume measure of consumption. Excluding non-profit institutions serving households.
(c) 2005 Q1 data were unavailable at the time of the May Report.
Chart 2.7
Sectoral contributions to quarterly whole-economy investment growth(a)
(a) Chained volume measures.
Chart 2.8
Official estimates of business investment and a survey-based indicator
Sources: Bank of England, ONS and Ellis, C and Barnes, S (2005), ‘Indicators of short-term movements in business investment’, Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Spring, pages 30–38.
(a) Shaded area shows the survey-based indicator plus and minus its average absolute difference from official estimates between 1996 and 2002.
Chart 2.9
Nominal government procurement and public sector employment
Chart 2.10
Euro-area competitiveness — real effective exchange rates based on
relative unit labour costs
Source: Thomson Financial Datastream.
(a) Inverted scale. An increase in the index implies a fall in competitiveness.
Chart 2.11
Contributions to quarterly US GDP growth(a)
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis.
(a) Chained volume measures.
Chart 2.12
Revisions to quarterly UK export growth since 1997
Tables
Table 2.A
Expenditure components of demand(a)
Percentage changes on a quarter earlier
2003
Average
Household consumption(b)
Government consumption
Investment
of which, business
Final domestic demand
Change in inventories(c)(d)
Alignment adjustment(d)
Domestic demand
Exports
Imports
Net trade(d)
Private final expenditure(e)
GDP at market prices
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
2004
Average
2005
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0.0
0.8
1.0
1.0
0.0
0.5
0.9
0.3
0.9
0.6
0.8
0.1
0.0
0.7
1.2
1.4
-0.1
1.0
1.3
0.3
1.5
0.8
1.0
-0.1
0.1
1.0
1.4
2.0
-0.2
1.3
0.6
0.2
1.5
2.0
0.6
-0.1
-0.1
0.6
0.4
1.2
-0.3
0.6
0.6
0.4
-0.2
-0.4
0.4
0.1
0.4
0.8
1.1
1.7
-0.2
0.6
0.1
0.7
0.3
0.1
0.2
-0.1
0.1
0.2
-0.9
-1.2
0.1
-0.4
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
-0.1
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.4
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.6
1.5
-0.2
-0.7
0.7
Chained volume measures.
Excludes non-profit institutions serving households.
Excludes the alignment adjustment.
Percentage point contributions to quarterly growth of GDP.
Household consumption excluding non-profit institutions serving households, private investment and exports.
Q2
Table 2.B
Indicators of consumer spending
2004
Q2
Q3
Q4
0.8
-0.7
0.0
-1.2
5.5
4.0
2.7
41.3
2005
Q1
Q2
July
0.1
-4.9
0.7
0.5
n.a.
n.a.
2.6
3.9
1.2
n.a.
1.5
0.0
0.7
-2.5
n.a.
5.7
21.0
-3.3
-13.3
-14.7
Percentage changes on a quarter earlier
Retail sales volumes
Private vehicle registrations(a)
2.0
-8.2
Percentage changes on a year earlier
BRC retail sales values (total)
BRC retail sales values
(like-for-like)
Balance
CBI retail sales volumes(b)(c)
Sources: Bank of England, BRC, CBI, ONS and SMMT.
(a) Seasonally adjusted by the Bank of England.
(b) Balance of respondents in the CBI Distributive Trades survey reporting sales
higher than a year earlier.
(c) July figure is a three-month moving average.
Table 2.C
Indicators of future investment(a)
Average
since
1989
Average
in
1997
Surveys of investment intentions
BCC service sector
BCC manufacturing(b)
CBI manufacturing
CBI distributive trades
15
10
-7
-1
Confidence in profitability(c)
BCC service sector
BCC manufacturing(b)
34
29
2004
2005
Q3
Q4
Q1
28
23
12
9
17
18
-17
24
15
16
-19
6
11
10
-16
-18
46
37
35
24
41
35
38
34
Q2
8
9
-15
-29
29
34
Sources: BCC and CBI.
(a) Percentage balances of respondents.
(b) Includes agriculture, energy and construction.
(c) The question asks ‘Do you believe that over the next twelve months profitability will improve/remain the
same/worsen?’
Revisions to the
National Accounts
Chart A
GDP(a)
(a) Chained volume measure.
Chart B
Revisions to the level of GDP
(a) Calculated using the difference in cumulated growth from 1991 Q4 before and after the revisions, as volumes levels before and after the revision are not directly comparable.
(b) Excluding non-profit institutions serving households.
Chart C
Household consumption(a)
(a) Excluding non-profit institutions serving households.
(b) 2005 Q1 data were unavailable at the time of the May Report.
Chart D
Households’ saving ratio
(a) 2005 Q1 data were unavailable at the time of the May Report.
Chart E
Business investment(a)
(a) Chained volume measure.
(b) 2005 Q1 data were unavailable at the time of the May Report.
Chart F
Whole-economy stock-output(a) ratio
(a) Inventories (excluding the alignment adjustment) as a proportion of chain-weighted GDP.
(b) 2005 Q1 data were unavailable at the time of the May Report.