Transcript ARE Day - Presidential Climate Action Project — PCAP

Climate & Energy Policies
44th
for the
President & 111th Congress
William Becker
Presidential Climate Action Project
November 13, 2008
What science is telling us
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Global warming is real.
It is underway now.
It is caused mostly by human activities.
If allowed to go much farther, it will have
disastrous consequences for our economy,
health, security & ecosystems.
We have the tools to prevent this.
We don’t have much time.
How Far?
Emission Reduction Goals for Industrial Nations
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By 2015
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Stabilize global emissions: IPCC
By 2020
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(compared to 1990)
25-40%: Bali action plan
20-30%: European Union
How fast?
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"If there's no action before 2012,
that's too late. What we do in
the next 2 to 3 years will
determine our future. This is the
defining moment.“ – Rajendra
Pachauri, IPCC
“The next president and congress
must define a course next year in
which the United States exerts
leadership commensurate with our
responsibility for the present
dangerous situation…” – Dr. Jim
Hansen, NASA
Moving in Wrong Direction
McKinsey & Company 2030 Reference Case for U.S.
By 2030…
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CO2e emissions increase 35%
Carbon absorption decreases 7%
Carbon intensity &
per capita emissions
improve
Growth factors
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Population growth
Buildings & appliances
More carbon-based power
Moving in Wrong Direction
Energy Information Administration - 2007
The challenge…
21st century economy
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Security
Opportunity
Stewardship
Carbon Economy
Petroleum
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Oil dependence to cost
economy $560 billion & 1.5%
of GDP in 2008 (Oak Ridge
National Laboratory/DOE)
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$1.7 trillion lost in past five
years
$1 trillion transferred to oilproducing nations
Oil = 1/3 trade deficit
Cheap oil gone
Efficiency, conservation & new
fuels can deliver 50 times more
oil than expanded domestic
drilling (Consumer Federation of
America)
Direct Economic Costs of U.S. Oil Dependence, 1970-2009
Source: U.S. Department of Energy
Carbon Economy
Electric Generation
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U.S. power sector world’s largest
 2 times China
 3.5 times Russia
 5 times India
Per capita use in U.S. 5 times
global average
70% wasted in generation
6-9% wasted in line losses
Congestion/blackouts cost $79
billion/year
BAU by 2030
 60% power from coal
 34% of GHG emissions
Carbon Economy
Coal
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80% U.S. power plant CO2
1/3 existing plants to retire by 2030
151 plants in pipeline in 2007
Nearly 90 stopped by lawsuit,
permitting, lack of investment
CCS decade + away
Post-Carbon Economy
Market opportunity
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Global green market to reach $2.7 trillion by 2020 (UNEP)
U.S investments in renewables = $13 billion in 2007
Post-Carbon Economy
Renewable Energy
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Today
 11% of generation
 Wind capacity grew
45% 2006-2007
 Solar capacity grew
40%
 Geothermal projects
up 20% through Aug.
2008
What’s Ahead
 20% wind by 2020
(DOE)
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Solar grid parity in ~5
years (McKinsey)
Smart grids
Distributed power
Post-Carbon
Economy
Energy efficiency
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Largest source of US energy
supply for last 35 years
30% savings cost effective in
the next 20-25 years (ACEEE)
$1 for efficiency avoids more
than $2 in new supply (IEA)
Best cushion against rising
prices
Efficiency could hold US CO2
constant to 2030 (NREL)
Post-Carbon
Economy
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$100 billion
investment could
produce 2 million jobs
in two years - Center for American Progress
$500 billion investment could produce 5 million
jobs in 10 years - Apollo Project
National push could create 2.5 million new
metropolitan jobs by 2018 - U.S. Conference of Mayors
McKinsey Curve: Power of Efficiency
Project Sponsors:
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Available on 11/18 at:
Building and Construction
Trades Department (AFLCIO)
International Brotherhood
of Boilermakers
Industrial Union Council
(AFL-CIO)
United Association of
Plumbers and Pipefitters
Environmental Defense
Fund
http://www.cggc.duke.edu/environment/climatesolutions/
Raw
Materials
Window
Components
Lumber
Frames
Aluminum
Sill, Sash, Stop,
& Stool
Fiberglass
Vinyl
Gas Filling
Krypto
Argon
Nickel
Low-E, Solar Control
Coatings
Insulating Spacer
Titanium Dioxide
Flat Glass Panes
Chromium Nitrate
Silver
Polystyrene Foam
Silica
Other Components
-Backer Rod
-Flange
High Performance Windows
Raw
Materials
Components
Manufacturers
Silica
Low-E Coatings
U.S. Silica Co., Wedron
Silica Co.(IL), Shore
Mountains Silica (TN)
Top Window
Manufacturers
Flat Glass
Russia, Canada, Australia,
Indonesia
Corning, Inc: (NY) 313 employees
Cardinal Insulating Glass (ND)
280 employees
Pilkington Glass Co.: (OH) 300
employees
Chromium
Polystyrene Foam
Owens Corning (OH),
Carpenter Co. (VA),
Foamex Intl. (PA)
Argon
Praxair (CT), Air Products
and Chemicals (PA)
Aluminum
Alcoa Inc., A.M. Castle
Fiberglass
U.S., China
Vinyl
Lumber Weyerehouse
Co.(WA), Jeld-Wen (OR),
Pella Co.(IA)
Other: Krypton,
Titanium dioxide,
Silver
Jeld-Wen: (OR)
25,000 employees, $ 2,900
million sales
Pella Co.: (IA)
9,000 employees, $1,530
million sales
Spacer
Edgetech I.G.: (OH) 50 employees
GED Integrated Solutions: (OH)
110 employees
TruSeal Technologies: (OH) 40
employees
Gas Fills:
Praxair: (CT) 27,992 employees
Air Liquide: France
Air Products and Chemicals: (PA)
21,500 employees
Airgas: (PA) 14, 500 employees
Andersen: (MN)
9001 employees, $3,000
million sales
Milgard Windows: (WA, CA)
3,607 employees, $1,227.1
million sales
Atrium Windows and Doors:
(TX)
520 employees, $120.6
million sales
Gorell Enterprises (PA) 280
employees, $72.2 million
sales
Lowe’s: (NC) 160,000 employees
Home Depot: (GA) 331,000
employees
84 Lumber: (PA) 9,500 Employees
Manufacturer Retail Stores/
Showrooms
Installation (Contractors)
Professional Installation
Contractors Within Each
State
Residential Construction
Companies (Professional
Installation)
Backer Rod,
Flange
Frames:
Most frames are made on-site at the finished product manufacturer:
Pella, Jeld-Wen, Milgard
Research & Development:
Manufacturers: Many component and window manufacturers employ research engineers
(ex: Pella has over 300 engineers; CPF Films has an R&D department)
Industry Organizations: Energy Star
Leading U.S. Window
Retailers
Alpen (co)
Other Components:
Dow Chemical Co., E.I. du Pont
Consumer
Market
Retailers
Seki-Sui-Lec: (Japan)
Emirates Glass: (Dubai)
CPFilms: (VA)
Nickel
Elements Chromium (TX
and NC)
Window
Manufacturers
•D.R. Horton (TX) 6,231
Employees
•Lennar (FL) 6,934
Employees
•Pulte Homes (MI) 8,500
Employees
•Centex (TX) 11,418
Employees
U.S. Component and Window
Manufacturers
LED Lighting Manufacturing
Companies
Status of U.S. Policy
Americans can always
be counted on to do
the right thing...after
they have exhausted
all other possibilities.
–
Sir Winston Churchill
PCAP Mission
Provide the 44th President of the United States with a
comprehensive plan to take bold action on climate
change within 100 days.
Background
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Most comprehensive
climate action plan yet
Two-year, $2 million project
Wirth Chair, UC-Denver
Sources of proposals:
 Science & policy experts
 Advisory Committee members
 Original research
 Current & former federal
National Advisory Committee
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Ray Anderson, Founder & CEO,
Interface Inc.
Dr. D. James Baker, former NOAA
Administrator
Scott Bernstein, Center for
Neighborhood Technologies
April Bucksbaum, Baum Foundation
Dianne Dillon-Ridgley, Chair, Plains
Justice
Brian Castelli, VP, Alliance to Save
Energy
Boyd Gibbons, past president,
Johnson Foundation
Gary Hart, U.S. Sen. (ret)
Sheila Slocum Hollis, Partner
Duane Morris LLP
Van Jones, President & Founder, Ella
Baker Center for Human Rights
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John Petersen, Arlington Institute
Hunter Lovins, Natural Capitalism
Solutions
Michael Northrop, Rockefeller Bros. Fund
Dr. David Orr, Oberlin College
Theodore Roosevelt IV, Pew Center
Larry Schweiger, President, National
Wildlife Federation
Jeremy Symons, National Wildlife
Federation
Dr. Gus Speth, Dean, School of Forestry
& Environmental Studies, Yale University
Adm. Richard Truly (USN ret), former
NASA Administrator & NREL Director
Heidi VanGenderen, Chief Climate
Advisor, Colorado Governors Office
Comprehensive
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Economic policy
Climate policy
Energy policy
National security
Agriculture/rural development
Buildings
Transportation
Federal carbon management
Natural resource stewardship
Ocean ecology
Freshwater resources
Equity
Adaptation
Public health
State/Local action
International policy
Presidential leadership
Presidential Climate Action Plan
www.climateactionproject.com
PCAP by the Numbers
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Action items
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Executive authority analysis
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181 recommendations
$160 billion/year
96 climate statutes
Landmark environmental laws
140 federal court cases
370 executive orders from 1937
Climate Plum Book
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200 senior climate-critical positions
250 nominees
Among the issues…
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Carbon pricing
Perverse subsidies
Fed vs. state leadership
Carbon lock-in
Capital
International expectations
Carbon Pricing
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President-elect Obama
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Economy-wide cap & Trade
100% auction
EPA regulation
GHG = 1990 by 2020
80% cut by 2050
PCAP
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Economy-wide cap & trade
Upstream allowances
100% auction
No off-ramps/safety valves
Reductions measured in
absolute tons
25-30% cut by 2020
80%+ cut by 2050
Renewable Power
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President-elect
Obama
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PCAP
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25% by 2025
$15 billion/year
30% 2020
$30 billion/year
$1 billion platinum
carrot
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Energy storage
Plug-in hybrids
Cellulosic ethanol
Energy Efficiency
Critical for Coping
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President-elect Obama
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Reduce consumption
15% below projected
demand by 2020
PCAP
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25% cut from today’s
use by 2020
50% cut by 2050
Coal-fired Generation
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President-elect Obama
 Aggressive R&D on CCS
 5 demonstration plants
PCAP
 Use efficiency/renewables to
avoid new conventional plants
 “Clean” = life-cycle CO2
 Explore converting existing
plants to natural gas
 CCS R&D
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Continue but don’t wait
Increase industry cost-share
Continually evaluate costeffectiveness
Nuclear Power
Avoid problem-switching
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President-elect Obama
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Solve storage,
proliferation, safety
problems
PCAP
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Same as Obama
Meantime, implement
clean energy surge
Transportation
Beyond Futurama
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President-elect Obama
 Deploy 1 million plug-in hybrids by
2015
 Increase CAFE 4%/year
 Offer $7,000 tax credit for
advanced vehicle purchases
 Provide $4 billion in retooling tax
credits for automakers
 Support liquids from coal if 20%
less carbon than gasoline
PCAP
 Increase CAFE to 50 mpg by 2025
 200 mpg by 2050
 Reform Surface Transportation
Program
 Offer $1 billion in platinum carrot
awards
 No liquids from coal
Economic Policy
Invest in the New Economy
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McKinsey & Company
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President-elect Obama
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10-fold increase in carbon
productivity in 4 decades
Comparable in magnitude to labor
productivity increases of Industrial
Revolution…
But in one-third the time
$150 billion investments over 10
years to produce 5 million jobs
PCAP
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$100 billion investment over 2
years = 2 million jobs
Economic development grants for
“climate enterprise zones”
Reform international aid & trade
to spur emerging global markets
for green energy
States & Localities
Create Intergovernmental Action Plan
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$1 billion/year for states that…
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Decouple rates
Map renewables & extend grid
Promote distributed power & cogeneration
Create interconnection standards
Implement net metering
Use feed-in tariffs
Implement climate action plans
Establish RPSs
$2 billion/year Energy
Efficiency & Conservation block
grants
$1.4 billion/year
Weatherization Assistance
Program
States Climate Change Action Plans
Information current as of August 2008.
Completed: 32
AL, AZ, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, HI, IA, IL, KY, ME, MD, MA, MN,
MO, MT, NH, NJ, NM, NV, NY, NC, OR, PA, RI, SC, TN, UT,
VT, WA, WI
In Progress: 6
AK, AR, ID, KS, MI, VA
No Policy in Place: 13
International Climate Action
Strong domestic policy = Leadership
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President-elect Obama
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Join actively in post-Kyoto negotiations
Provide incentives for reductions by developing nations
Create Global Energy Forum G8+5
Cooperate with China/India to reduce oil demand
PCAP
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Send representative to Poland
Commit to holding warming to 2oC or less
Negotiate bilateral pact with China
Champion reforms in aid & trade
Propose OPIC
Meet with Congressional leaders early to collaborate on preCopenhagen plans
Questions for Congress
The international community is looking for an
early signal of U.S. commitment. Will Congress
move cap & trade legislation in 2009?
If not, what measures will it support to
demonstrate U.S. commitment?
Questions for Congress
Should we allow the construction of any
more conventional coal-fired power
plants?
If so, how do we reconcile new plants with
need to reduce CO2?
Questions for Congress
European Union & other nations call for
industrial nations to cut GHG emissions 25-40%
below 1990 levels by 2020
That’s far short of any legislation in Congress or
proposed during presidential campaign.
Can the U.S. have credibility in international
negotiations without the higher goal?
Questions for Congress
If you support more oil production and a
reduction in greenhouse gas emissions,
how do you reconcile those two
contradictory goals?
Questions for Congress
On the one hand, there’s general agreement we
should correct market signals by pricing carbon.
On the other hand, market signals are distorted
by fossil energy subsidies.
Will you push for an end to public subsidies for
the coal, gas and oil industries?
Questions for Congress
The first big opportunity to make federal policy
more “climate friendly” next year will be the
reauthorization of the surface transportation act
Will you shift the emphasis from building roads
to building mass transit systems, high speed rail,
and transit-oriented communities?
Questions for Congress
Although everyone talks about “energy
independence”, the U.S. has little control
over oil prices or supplies. More domestic
production will have little effect.
What can the U.S. do to reduce this global
vulnerability?
Questions for Congress
Climate scientists tell us we need action
far more aggressive than any
contemplated by Congress so far.
How do we close the gap?
Needed: Bold Action
Soon
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Reduce federal emissions 30% by 2020, 8090% by 2050
Cut oil consumption in half by 2025
Offset all U.S. oil imports by 2040
Achieve zero-net-carbon buildings by 2030
Reduce energy consumption 25% by 2020
Obtain 30% of electricity from renewables by
2020
Reduce vehicle miles traveled 20% by 2020,
50% by 2050
De-carbonize federal subsidies
De-carbonize international development
policies
Form Organization of Petroleum Importing
Countries (OPIC)
Require carbon impact statements
[email protected]
www.climateactionproject.com