Transcript Veranstaltung - Club of Amsterdam

Club of Amsterdam, June 25, 2003
Re-Inventing Democracies
for the Future:
A few Remarks on the Swiss
«Model»
2
«Super Sunday», May 18, 2003:
National vote on 9 propositions
•
•
•
•
•
•
Reform of the armed forces
Civil defense and population protection
Program for the creation of apprenticeships
Closure of nuclear power plants
Moratorium for refurbishing nuclear power plants
Income and wealth-tested premiums for health care
insurance
• «Four Sundays without Car Traffic»
• Equal rights of access for the handicapped
• Regulations for «Fair Rents»
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TH/June 25 2003
3
Closure of nuclear power plants
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TH/June 25 2003
4
Income and wealth-tested premiums
for health care insurance
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TH/June 25 2003
5
High hurdles: Popular and state vote
Proposition
Popular Vote
% Nay
State Vote
Nay : Yea
Moratorium on nuclear power
59,4
22 : 1
Equal rights for handycapped
62,3
20 : 3
«Four Car-free Sundays»
62,3
23 : 0
Closure of nuclear plants
66,3
22½ : ½
Regulation for «Fair Rents«
67,3
22 : 1
Programm for apprenticeships
68,4
23 : 0
Health care insurance
72,9
23 : 0
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Examples for cantonal votes (%Yea)
• Law on extended shopping hours (2000, 56%)
• Cantonal supplements to federal social security
payments (44,1%)
• Cantonal investment in Crossair/Swiss (55,5%)
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Examples for communal votes
• Budgeting and expenditure authority of local
council (2002, 863 yeas vs. 611 nays, 51,4% voter
participation)
• Contribution of CHF 2’481’200.- for renovation of
regional hospital (2001, 3133 yeas vs. 1005 nays,
33,3% voter participation)
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TH/June 25 2003
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Direct democracy on the rise: More
votes
• 1848 – 1970: 223 (Ø 1,9/year)
• 1971 – 1990: 256 (Ø 7,8/year)
• 1991 – 2001: 105 (Ø 9,5/year)
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Participation in elections and in votes
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Declining vote participation
• Vote participation rate >> election participation
rate
→ limited role of parliament
→ stable 4 party government («Magic Formula»)
• Participation rate depends on mix/composition of
ballot
→ (additive) issue voting
→ high degree of predictability
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TH/June 25 2003
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Mandatory referendums as
confirmation and legitimation of
consensus process
• Mandatory referendums
– Amendments to the Constitution
– Membership in supranational organizations
– Majority of voters and majority of the cantons required
• 1848-2001: 198 votes
• 75% accepted
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TH/June 25 2003
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Optional referendums as veto
mechanism for special interest
groups/cantons
• Optional referendums
– Laws and certain international treaties
– 50’000 voter signatures required within 100 days after
final vote by parliament
– Majority of voters required
• 1848-2001: 141 votes
• 51% accepted
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TH/June 25 2003
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Low success rates for popular
initiative
• Popular initiatives
–
–
–
–
Amendment to the Constitution
100‘000 voter signatures required within 18 months
General proposal or precise paragraphs
Optional counter-proposal by government/parliament
plus tiebreaker
– Agenda setting and reform function
• 1848-2001: 138 votes
• 8,7% accepted
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TH/June 25 2003
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In praise of direct democracy …
• More communicative politics
• Reduction of apathy and cynicism, increase of
self-esteem (and happiness)
• Financial and fiscal restraint
• Collective learning processes
• Antidote to the «personalization» (and
banalization) of politics (?)
• Restoration of trust (?)
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Switzerland with low (or no) growth
Basisjahr 1984 = 100, Quelle: OECD
180
USA
EU
160
EFTA
140
Schweiz
120
100
80
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
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1994
1996
1998
2000
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Club of Amsterdam
TH/June 25 2003
Growth 1980 – 2000: Switzerland‘s
position according to 3 concepts of
GDP
GDP standardized
Command GDP
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GDP in PPP
TH/June 25 2003
19
20
Ranking GDP per capita:
Top Ten 1970 - 2020
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
CH
USA
LUX
LUX
LUX
LUX
LUX
CH
USA
USA
USA
IRL
USA
CAN
CH
NOR
IRL
USA
DNK
NOR
CAN
CAN
NOR
NOR
SWE
ISL
JPN
DNK
DNK
KOR
AUS
LUX
DNK
CH
CAN
DNK
CAN
DNK
ISL
IRL
JPN
JPN
NLD
SWE
SWE
AUS
AUS
AUS
NLZ
AUS
NOR
BEL
CH
CAN
NOR
NLD
FIN
JPN
ISL
GBR
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Projection of GDP per capita for 2015
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Labor force participation, 1999 (in %)
Schweiz
Norwegen
79. 8
78. 5
74. 8
73. 9
70. 3
69. 9
69. 6
68. 5
64. 7
62. 8
61. 8
60. 9
60. 5
59. 4
59. 3
56. 3
Quelle: OECD, 1999
50. 8
Japan
USA
Grossbritannien
Kanada
Schweden
Australien
Fürstentum Lichtenstein
Österreich
Niederlande
Neuseeland
Deutschland
Frankreich
Irland
Belgien
Italien
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Growth of labor productivity, 1992-2001
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Patterns of labor productivity
220
200
Japon
Modèle
AngloSaxon
180
Modèle
Latin
160
Modèle
Scandinave
140
Modèle
Allemand
120
Suisse
00
20
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
19
88
19
86
19
84
19
82
19
80
19
78
19
76
19
74
19
72
19
19
70
100
Quelle: seco 2003 (Studien zum Wachstumsbericht)
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Change in public expenditure (% of
GDP), 1992-2001
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Change in fiscal quota, 1992-2001
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Change in public debt, 1992-2001
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The price of direct democracy (and
«extreme» federalism)?
• Chronic lack of growth, low productivity
• Loss of competitive advantages
• Missed opportunities due to, and of, Non-EUmembership
• Systemic blockage of necessary reforms
• Demographic trap: democratic majority of elderly
voters against younger generations?
• Territorial units VS. urban development
Club of Amsterdam
TH/June 25 2003
December 6, 1992: 50,3% of voters
and two thirds of cantons vote against
EES
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TH/June 25 2003
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Electricity prices for industrial clients in
selected cities in Europe and Switzerland
(1.1.2003)
16.2
La Chaux-de-Fonds
Rom
15.4
Zürich
14.0
Genf
13.2
Basel
13.2
12.5
Bern
Dublin
12.2
Freiburg
11.2
Brüssel
11.1
Lissabon
9.7
8.9
Hamburg
Athen
8.6
London
8.2
Paris
8.2
M adrid
8.0
6.5
Helsinki
Oslo
Stockholm
6.0
4.4
Pr eise in R p . / kW h
Club of AmsterdamInterlaken
Quelle: Enerprice / Avenir Suisse, 2003
TH 08.05.2003
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32
Liberalization of postal service market
(2001):
Switzerland still with a weighty monopoly
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TH/June 25 2003
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Speed of liberalization: Slow
Switzerland
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TH/June 25 2003
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The price of direct democracy (and
«extreme» federalism)?
• Chronic lack of growth, low productivity
• Loss of competitive advantages
• Missed opportunities due to, and of, Non-EUmembership
• Systemic blockage of necessary reforms
• Demographic trap: democratic majority of elderly
voters against younger generations?
• Territorial units VS. urban development
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TH/June 25 2003
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Effects of federalism on veto players
and other institutions
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Veto players
«In Switzerland, a federal country with a
combination of bicameralism und qualified majority
decision making , the role of the President of the
Confederation is even more reduced; in fact, Swiss
Citizen may even ignore his name.
George Tsebelis, Federalism and Veto
players
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The price of direct democracy (and
«extreme» federalism)?
• Chronic lack of growth, low productivity
• Loss of competitive advantages
• Missed opportunities due to, and of, Non-EUmembership
• Systemic blockage of necessary reforms
• Demographic trap: democratic majority of elderly
voters against younger generations?
• Territorial units VS. urban development
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TH/June 25 2003
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Club of Amsterdam
TH/June 25 2003
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Reform of federalism (>> direct
democracy)
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•
•
•
•
Centralization [«fédéraliser»]
Equalization?
Unbundling?
New layers (agglomerations)
New territorial Functional, overlapping, and
competing jurisdiction (FOCI)
• New definition and reduction of territorial units
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TH/June 25 2003
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Net-contributors and net-receivers due to New
(federalist) Financial Equalization (in Mio. CHF)
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
-150
-200
-250
-300
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VS
BE
TG
SO
TI
LU
SG
FR
BS
AG
UR
SH
BL
NE
GR
VD
JU
AI
OW
AR
GL
NW
GE
SZ
ZG
ZH
-350
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Reform of federalism (>> direct
democracy)
•
•
•
•
•
Centralization [«fédéraliser»]
Equalization?
Unbundling?
New layers (agglomerations)
New territorial Functional, overlapping, and
competing jurisdiction (FOCI)
• New definition and reduction of territorial units
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TH/June 25 2003
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Club of Amsterdam
TH/June 25 2003
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A program for autonomous
(economic) policy reform (?)
• Maximum openess for international exchange and
immigration
• Liberalization of domestic markets, decisive free market
and competition policy
• Active foreign trade policy in all directions
• Redimensioning of welfare state, strengthening individual
responsibility
• Investment in education and research (plus structural
innovation)
• Maintain and protect Swiss accomplishments: liberal and
flexible labor market, high quality infrastructure, safety,
quality of life
Club of Amsterdam
TH/June 25 2003