Transcript FX and Macro Outlook - Commonwealth Association for

October 2011
October 2011
FX and Macro Outlook
John Shin +1 646 855 9342
FX Strategist
MLPF&S
[email protected]
G10 FX: EUR lower near term to 1.28 in 2012Q1, then 1.40 end-12
EM FX: Mixed forecasts, with CNY higher
Macro: US Outlook, FOMC, sovereign debt
Follow: European growth picture, oil, further US politics
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11086616
Refer to important disclosures on page 35-38.
1
October 2011
Key FX, rates and macro views
Shocks…and reactions to shocks

Now… slowdown in the US

Still… sovereign debt worries in Europe

And oil (Commodities)
Contrasting central banks and policymakers

We look for the Fed to stay on hold until 2014

We also expect the ECB to cut rates – after hiking rates earlier this year

Core drivers in previous ECB hikes: headline (ECB) versus core inflation (Fed)
We expect EUR-USD to fall short-term below 1.28, then up to 1.40

Europe sovereign debt worries, ECB rate cuts, no near-term QE3

US fiscal policy has different effects over time

In general, our USD forecasts are mixed and ambivalent
2
Fed balance sheet worry
October 2011
Fed balance sheet and bank reserves
tr
3.0
QE2
2.5
Balance Sheet
Reserv e Balances
2.0
 However, most “money
printing” winds up in the
form of excess bank reserves
 “Monetarist” case is
intuitive, but not a driver of
our short-term and mediumterm inflation views
1.5
1.0
 QE2 has been a huge impetus
across all markets, FX,
equities, rates, commodities
0.5
0.0
2003
 Markets are worried about
inflation because of massive
Fed balance sheet expansion
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
 Fed balance sheet is a
particular point of
contention for EM FX
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics and BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
3
USD-JPY: Crisis Currency
October 2011
Stronger correlation to US rates
USD-JPY
%
130
4.5
125
120
USD-JPY (left)
4.0
2y r US-JP spread (right)
3.5
115
3.0
110
105
2.5
100
2.0
95
1.5
90
1.0
85
0.5
80
75
Jan-07
0.0
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
 Hard to move away from
US interest rates for
behavior in USD-JPY
 We still see rate support
for a higher USD-JPY, but
over longer time
 Fed implies rate spreads
not yet moving in USDfavorable direction
 Economy has been doing
years of QE and fiscal
deficits, showing difficulty
in tracing policy impacts
directly to currency
Source: Bloomberg and BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
4
Forecast: Oil is U-shaped
October 2011
Our oil team looks for supply issues
140
Brent crude oil prices
$/bbl
120
100
80
60
40
 Still odds oil could briefly
break through $140/bbl over
near-term
 Their base case assumes
Libya generally offline for
next few months, but
without other severe
disruptions
 Quarterly forecasts for oil
are 102/104 (brent) and
88/94 (WTI)
 Old rule of thumb: $10/bbl
means 0.5pp fall in GDP
20
Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research; see Global Energy Weekly, 19 August 2011
5
US Employment: Slow comeback
October 2011
700
Joblessness: the key issue
 Years of 200K-like monthly
job growth need to fill in
excess capacity
Apr 1991 - Feb 2001: 24m jobs
 Breakeven is not zero, it is
more around 100K
k
Dec 2001 - Nov 2007: 7m
500
 Unemployment generally
used to envision “excess
capacity”/”output gap”
300
100
-100
 Payrolls are, in some sense,
the “flow” out of the “stock”
of unemployment
-300
July 1990 - Mar 1991: -1.3m
Mar 2001 - Nov 2001: -1.6m
-500
-700
Dec 2007 - Jun 2009: -7.4
m
-900
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
 Feeds into inflation and also
consumer spending; majority
of consumption “hand to
mouth”
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
6
US recession chance: 40%
October 2011
US Consumption still a large
share of economy
 Consumption is still
exceptionally high, and
provides small scope for
growth
%/GDP
72
70
 Latest Philadelphia Fed
readings are one sign of
concern
68
66
 We argue recession odds are
40%: still not our base case,
but a growing possibility
64
62
60
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
7
Worry about global downturn
October 2011
Global manufacturing PMIs
65
60
55
50
US
45
CH
UK
40
GE
35
 PMIs not always accurate for
overall economy, but
synchronized nature of
downturn is worrisome
 Markets have always looked
at US PMI, but China PMI now
gathering substantial
attention
 Such “forward looking” data
continue to drive sentiment
IT
30
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
8
G10 Growth still favoring… China
October 2011
Relative growth is the key
story in G10
2010
2011
2012
US
3.0
1.6
1.8
Euro area
1.7
1.6
0.8
UK
1.4
1.1
1.6
Japan
4.0
-0.5
2.7
Canada
3.2
2.5
2.4
Australia
2.7
2.0
4.3
NZ
1.5
1.4
4.5
Switzerland
2.7
1.9
0.5
Norway
2.1
2.5
2.7
Sweden
5.4
4.3
2.1
China
10.3
9.3
9.0
 Our US Economics team expects
rather weak growth in 2011-12
 Even within Europe, growth is very
asymmetric, and focused on the core
 UK still to be hampered by real
effects of fiscal consolidation
 Japan disaster has negative GDP
impact in 2011, with positive reversal
in 2012
 China remains a key EM development
for all markets to watch
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Bloomberg
9
Inflation: Price pressures
October 2011
Inflation and core inflation
% y -oy
16
14
12
CPI %y oy
10
Core CPI %y oy
8
 Informally, the Fed has an
inflation target of around
2.25% (not super precise)
 Inflation is generally seen as
modeled by two things:
excess capacity and inflation
expectations
 “Core” is preferred measure
as total very noisy, difficult
to “chase”, and moved
sharply by short-term factors
6
4
2
0
 Politically, “core” is
becoming harder to defend
-2
-4
1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
10
Inflation expectations still moderate
October 2011
TIPS imply contained inflation
%
3.5
UMich survey shows little shifts
%
5.0
3.0
4.5
2.5
4.0
2.0
3.5
1.5
3.0
1.0
0.5
2.5
0.0
2.0
May -07 Nov -07 May -08
Nov -08 May -09 Nov -09 May -10 Nov -10 May -11
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Bloomberg
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Bloomberg
 Inflation expectations are the other crucial factor for inflation
 Policymakers put more weight on market-derived expectations, however
 Inflation expectations have been responding to macro outlook
11
Fed: looking at the “Twist”
October 2011
Distribution of maturities
in Fed’s portfolio
290
$bn
 Current Fed portfolio has
duration of around 75 months
 So additional policy would
well extend the maturity of
the portfolio
270
250
230
 Still not clear its
effectiveness, given current
low longer term rates
210
190
170
150
0 -1½
1½ -2½
2½-4
4-5½
5½-7
7-10
10-30
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
12
US deficit risks
October 2011
Small playing field
$bn
The US stands alone in worsening
Composition of US federal outlays
0
1400
1200
-2
1000
-4
800
-6
600
-8
400
-10
200
-12
0
2005
2006
social and income security
2007
2008
medicare+health
defense
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research , Bloomberg
2009
interest
2010
all others
US
UK
Eurozone Germany France
2010
2011
Italy
2012
Source: CBO, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Bloomberg
 US deficit has soared short term, but key issue is longer-term sustainability
 However, market reaction to deficits is definitely not straightforward
 Short-term growth boost (payroll tax cuts), long-term much more problematic
13
Rate behavior not straightforward
October 2011
Nominal and Real 10yr Rates
 We formally expect 10yr
rates to rise to 2.30% by the
end of the year
%
8
7
6
Nominal
 Deficits not yet entering the
picture in terms of impacting
the market
5
4
3
2
 Economy still the key issue
(growth, inflation)
1
0
Real
-1
-2
Jan-95
Jan-97
Jan-99
Jan-01
Jan-03
Jan-05
Jan-07
Jan-09
Jan-11
 USD FX crisis would also be
part of an interest rate crisis
Source: Bloomberg, Bureau of Labor Statistics and BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
14
October 2011
EUR-USD has a mixed picture
We are expecting V-shape: 1.28 for Q1, 1.40 for end-12
 Main question is, which question will market focus on at which time
 Euro sovereign debt issues are still a key focus
 However, all the G4 currencies are significantly troubled
 EUR-CHF has been bearing the brunt, with Swiss intervention the result
15
EUR: link to rates
October 2011
Interest rate differentials for EUR
EUR-USD
1.55
2y r rate spread, EZ-US
1.6
1.4
1.50
1.2
1.45
1.0
1.40
0.8
1.35
0.6
0.4
1.30
0.2
1.25
0.0
EUR-USD (left)
1.20
 Correlations had not been
particularly stable for EUR across
markets before (or during) the
crisis
 Had been following rate
differentials; relative growth
stories and QE2 had previously
been the story
 Relative central banks had also
been driving the FX story, with a
hiking ECB and a Fed on hold
-0.2
2y r rate spread, EZ-US (right)
1.15
-0.4
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Source: Bloomberg and BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
16
EUR: Further negative
October 2011
Euro-zone concerns remain elevated
 Periphery countries are
substantially of concern
bps
2500
2000
Portugal
Italy
Greece
Spain
Ireland
 Issues of restructuring are still
lurking in a currency-negative
perspective
1500
 Sovereign debt spreads are still
well elevated
1000
500
0
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
 Crucial question is the banking
sector links within Europe;
“bank stress tests” not very
compelling
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Bloomberg
17
EUR: Italy too big to bail
October 2011
Debt and deficits for Italy
12
120
10
110
8
6
Total deficit/GDP
Gov . debt/GDP
100
90
4
80
0
70
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2
 High stock of public debt, equal to
120% of GDP in 2010, but above
80ppt of GDP since 1975 and over
100ppt since the early 1990s
 Low-growth environment (growth
averaged 1% in 1990-2000) and
prospects (potential growth is now
estimated at below 1%)
 However, no major imbalances
either before or during the crisis,
e.g. no housing bubble, and little
correction in house prices
Source: Bloomberg and BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
18
EM and oil pushing up EUR demand
October 2011
Reserve Accumulation still
rising, but more slowly
USD bn
7000
6000
USD bn
7000
EM50 FX reserves adjusted for revaluation
effects and interest accrual
Currency denomination of emerging
market foreign reserves
%
80
USD
70
EUR
60
6000
EM50 FX reserves
50
5000
5000
4000
4000
3000
3000
40
30
20
10
2000
Feb-07
Feb-08
Feb-09
Feb-10
2000
Feb-11
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
 Reserve accumulation should decelerate
 Such reserves have been key to drive flow diversification into EUR predominantly, also GBP
 High oil prices imply exporters selling their USD to rebalance into euro
19
EUR: Long-term negative
October 2011
Unit labor costs have risen
significantly in peripheral Europe
Index
Index
Unit Labour Costs
 Periphery has become
substantially uncompetitive in
terms of labor costs
150
150
140
140
Spain
Portugal
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Germany
130
130
120
120
110
110
100
100
90
90
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Bloomberg
2006
2007
2008
2009
 With individual currencies, we
believe a depreciation could
return countries to
competitiveness more quickly
 Every country is currently on
the same monetary policy
setting, which means they can
only be more competitive
through some combination of
deflationary environment and
EUR depreciation
20
EM vs. DM: The key difference
October 2011
CPI inflation: EM (higher) vs. DM (lower)
(YoY % change)
Inflation fundamentals for EM
9.0
8.0
• Higher commodity exposure
7.0
6.0
• Smaller output gaps
5.0
• Policy tied to US
4.0
3.0
• Hot capital inflows
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Source: Haver Analytics, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
21
October 2011
China uptrend against USD
We are expecting 6.30 for end-2011; 6.20 for end-2012
 China is now a crucial factor in macro and currency space
 Most importantly, macro pressures arguing for a higher RMB
 China’s macro picture very different from US: strong growth and inflation
 Allowing higher RMB is both “mechanically” and economically key policy
22
China: Soft landing, price pressures
October 2011
Inflation pressures
moving with food
Core macro outlook
China
2010
2011
2012
Real GDP (% yoy)
10.3
9.3
9.0
CPI (% yoy)
3.3
4.5
3.6
20
Policy Rate (end)
5.81
6.56
7.06
10
GovBal (%/GDP)
-2.1
-2.3
-2.2
0
%YoY
25
15
5
-5
CurActBal (%/GDP)
5.2
4.2
3.5
2005
2006
2007
CPI
2008
2009
2010
CPI:non-food
CPI: Food
2011
 China’s GDP growth headed to the “new normal” of 9.0%
 There is genuine concern around inflation, although current prices pushed by food impacts
 Continued tightening to fight price pressures, including recent rate hike
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
23
China: Recent move higher
October 2011
Some recent strengthening
 More consistent movement
against the USD
USD-CNY
8.5
 On a macro basis, however,
the impact could be muted
based on past reactions for
trade
8.0
7.5
 The stronger currency
works to lower inflation
pressures, both directly and
through policy implications
7.0
6.5
6.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: Bloomberg and BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
24
Japan: Catastrophe
October 2011
2010
2011
2012
2011
Q1
Real GDP(%qoqAR)
4.0
-0.5
2.7
-3.6
-1.3
4.4
4.2
CPI (% yoy)
-1.0
-0.5
0.4
-0.8
-0.3
-0.3
-0.5
Policy Rate (end)
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
FscGovBal(%/GDP)
-9.1
-11.0
-9.9
CurActBal(%/GDP)
3.5
2.1
2.7
Japan
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
 Economic numbers reflect the macro disruption post-earthquake
 Reconstruction likely to have more direct impact in H2
 Deflationary forces remain in the macro outlook
 Supply chain issues: Could see some companies miss earnings forecasts in Q3
25
JPY: intervention tension
October 2011
JPY, Nikkei and intervention
Nikkei Index
25,000
 Intervention attempts have
increased over the past year
USD-JPY
150
140
20,000
130
120
15,000
110
100
10,000
90
80
5,000
70
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
JPY-selling Intervention
01
02
03
04
05
Nikkei 225 Index
06
07
08
09
10
11
 Unilateral efforts, however,
are not very effective
 Also causing distress in terms
of FX politics around the
world
 Intervention generally
accepted only in “disorderly”
market conditions (when we
saw coordinated action)
USD-JPY Spot Rate (right)
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
26
UK: Inflation issues near term
October 2011
United Kingdom
2010
2011
2012
2011
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
Real GDP(%qoq)
1.4
1.1
1.6
0.5
0.2
0.4
0.3
CPI (% yoy)
3.3
4.4
2.4
4.1
4.4
4.7
4.6
Policy Rate (end)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
FscGovBal(%/GDP)
-9.7
-8.1
-6.6
CurActBal(%/GDP)
-3.2
-1.8
-1.3
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
 GDP had contracted by nearly a whopping 5% in 2009, by far the weakest since WWII
 Growth is mixed, with QE and low GBP offset by fiscal tightening
 Inflation has been high, but on energy, VAT and import prices
27
GBP: Mixed outlook
October 2011
We expect mixed outlook
against USD for GBP
GBP-USD
2.1
 Our economics team expects BOE
on hold this year
EUR-GBP (rev erse)
0.50
2.0
0.60
1.9
1.8
0.70
1.7
0.80
1.6
1.5
1.4
GBP-USD (LHS)
EUR-GBP (rev erse, RHS)
1.3
0.90
1.00
 We expect GBP-USD to be lower
near term (1.51/1.49 targets for
Q4/Q1)
 Longer term, combination of EURUSD higher to 1.40 and EUR-GBP
lower to .85 implies GBP-USD end2012 target of 1.65
 Ultimately, fiscal tightening in UK
contrasts with Europe and US
favorably for currency
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Bloomberg and BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
28
Australia: Asia beneficiary
October 2011
2010
2011
2012
2011
Q1
Real GDP(%qoq)
2.7
2.0
4.3
-1.2
1.6
1.1
1.2
CPI (% yoy)
2.8
3.5
3.0
3.3
3.6
3.6
3.4
Policy Rate (end)
4.75
4.75
5.75
4.75
4.75
4.75
4.75
FscGovBal(%/GDP)
-4.4
-3.3
-1.7
CurActBal(%/GDP)
-2.6
-2.5
-3.5
Australia
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
 Australia growth prospects hit this year on weather disasters
 Imbalances are not as major an issue as they previously were amid currency strength
 Ties into China growth cycle, compared to the US, have been positive
29
AUD: high despite low risk appetite
October 2011
AUD gained with risk, and
had also held up well
AUD-USD
S&P 500
1.2
1600
1.1
1500
AUD-USD (LHS)
1400
S&P 500 (RHS)
1.0
1300
1200
0.9
1100
0.8
1000
900
0.7
 Currency strength more tolerated
by policy makers to fight inflation
 AUD is a classic “commodity
currency”, which implies also
downside if oil/commodity prices
drop later this year
 Key risks also lie in China data and
expectations for RBA
 We expect 0.95 for end of year
800
0.6
700
0.5
Jan-07
600
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
30
Canada: resilient
October 2011
2010
2011
2012
2011
Q1
Real GDP(%qoqAR)
3.2
2.5
2.4
3.6
-0.4
3.2
4.3
CPI (% yoy)
1.8
3.1
2.7
2.6
3.4
3.1
3.4
Policy Rate (end)
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
FscGovBal(%/GDP)
-2.5
-1.6
-0.9
CurActBal(%/GDP)
-3.1
-2.8
-1.6
Canada
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
 Canada growth has been more resilient
 Our economics team expects on hold until 2012
 Unlike US, Canada did not have massive QE, deflation, or banking issues
31
CAD: following oil
October 2011
Oil and CAD
USD-CAD
$/bbl
1.35
30
1.30
50
1.25
70
1.20
1.15
90
1.10
110
1.05
130
1.00
0.95
 CAD has been benefiting from oil
prices, and we are looking for oil
prices to drop
 Currency strength is also becoming
more uncomfortable for Canadian
economy
 CAD had benefited from broad riskpositive environment
 We expect 1.07 for end of year
USD-CAD (left)
150
Oil (right, rev erse)
0.90
170
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
32
G10 currency forecasts
October 2011
Quarterly Forecasts- G10 currencies
Spot
G3
EUR-USD
USD-JPY
EUR-JPY
Dollar Bloc
USD-CAD
AUD-USD
NZD-USD
Europe
EUR-GBP
GBP-USD
EUR-CHF
USD-CHF
EUR-SEK
USD-SEK
EUR-NOK
USD-NOK
Dec '11
Mar '12
Jun '12
Sep '12
Dec '12
1.35
76
103
1.30
75
98
1.28
77
99
1.30
80
104
1.35
83
112
1.40
86
120
1.03
0.98
0.78
1.07
0.95
0.75
1.07
0.94
0.75
1.05
0.96
0.77
1.03
0.94
0.76
1.01
0.93
0.75
0.87
1.55
1.22
0.90
9.24
6.85
7.83
5.80
0.86
1.51
1.22
0.94
9.20
7.08
7.80
6.00
0.86
1.49
1.24
0.97
9.10
7.11
7.70
6.02
0.85
1.53
1.26
0.97
9.00
6.92
7.60
5.85
0.83
1.63
1.28
0.95
9.00
6.67
7.60
5.63
0.85
1.65
1.30
0.93
9.00
6.43
7.60
5.43
Note: Forecast as of 28 September 2011. Spot exchange rate as of 26 September 2011. The left of the currency pair is the denominator of the exchange rate. Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
33
EM currency forecasts
October 2011
Quarterly Forecasts- EM currencies
Spot
Latin America
USD-BRL
USD-MXN
USD-CLP
USD-COP
USD-ARS
USD-VEF
USD-PEN
Emerging Europe
EUR-PLN
EUR-HUF
EUR-CZK
USD-UAH
USD-RUB
USD-ZAR
USD-TRY
EUR-RON
USD-EGP
USD-ILS
USD-AED
USD-KWD
USD-SAR
USD-QAR
Asian Bloc
USD-KRW
USD-TWD
USD-SGD
USD-THB
USD-HKD
USD-CNY
USD-IDR
USD-PHP
USD-MYR
USD-INR
Dec '11
Mar '12
Jun '12
Sep '12
Dec '12
1.85
13.71
512
1,909
4.20
4.29
2.77
1.75
12.80
480
1,850
4.35
4.30
2.70
1.77
13.05
485
1,850
4.60
4.30
2.65
1.80
13.10
490
1,850
4.80
4.30
2.65
1.82
13.15
495
1,850
5.00
4.30
2.60
1.85
13.20
500
1,850
5.20
4.30
2.60
4.43
291
24.64
8.00
32.40
8.11
1.86
4.30
5.96
3.74
3.67
0.28
3.75
3.64
4.20
285
24.50
8.00
30.00
7.30
1.85
4.30
6.00
3.60
3.75
0.29
3.75
3.64
3.95
270
23.75
8.00
29.00
7.25
1.65
4.30
6.30
3.35
3.75
0.29
3.75
3.64
3.95
270
23.70
8.00
29.00
7.35
1.65
4.30
6.50
3.30
3.75
0.29
3.75
3.64
3.95
270
23.65
8.00
29.00
7.50
1.65
4.30
6.75
3.25
3.75
0.29
3.75
3.64
3.95
270
23.65
8.00
29.00
7.60
1.65
4.30
7.00
3.20
3.75
0.29
3.75
3.64
1,193
30.59
1.30
31.15
7.80
6.40
9,125
43.80
3.18
49.46
1,160
30.00
1.25
30.50
7.82
6.30
8500
43.00
3.20
48.50
1,120
31.00
1.24
30.00
7.75
6.30
8400
42.00
3.00
47.50
1,050
30.50
1.22
30.00
7.76
6.25
8500
41.00
2.90
46.00
1,000
30.00
1.22
30.50
7.76
6.20
8500
42.00
2.90
46.00
980
29.00
1.23
30.80
7.78
6.20
8400
42.00
3.00
45.00
Note: Forecast as of 28 September 2011. Spot exchange rate as of 26 September 2011. The left of the currency pair is the denominator of the exchange rate. Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
34
October 2011
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October 2011
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36
October 2011
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October 2011
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