Transcript Document

ECONOMIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE
ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC PROCESSES
IN THE REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN
April 2011
Content:

GDP structure for 2010

Money-and-credit and financial sectors

Macroeconomic indicators

Foreign trade turnover

Implementation of State Budget

Real sector

Social sector

Conclusions
GDP structure for 2010
% of corresponding
period of previous year
bln. tenge
GDP
Production of commodities
Agriculture, forestry and fisheries
Manufacturing industry
Mining and quarry development
Secondary production
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning
Water supply, sewage system, control over the collection and distribution of waste
Construction
Production of services
Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles
Transportation and warehousing
Facilities for accommodation and meals
Information and communication
Financial and insurance activities
Real estate
Professional, scientific and technical activities
Activities in the field of administrative and support services
Public administration and defense, compulsory social security
Education
Healthcare and social services
Arts, Entertainment and Recreation
Other service activities
Activities of households as employers of domestic workers and produce goods and
services for own consumption
Total Industry
Indirectly measured financial intermediation services
Gross value added
Net taxes on products and imports
Volume
ind
ex
Deflator
structure in% of
GDP
21 513,47
9 490,40
940,60
6 943,20
4 018,62
2 468,29
390,03
66,26
1 606,59
11 391,34
2 832,19
1 613,19
170,91
520,22
1 333,50
1 877,76
841,40
107
105
88,3
109,6
105,3
118,4
104,1
104,8
101
106
112
107,4
101,7
110
97,6
103,8
106,1
115,3
117,7
103,4
125,1
125,7
123,9
127,6
119,7
100,3
113
122,2
105,6
117,3
81,5
107,3
120
112,1
100
44,2
4,4
32,3
18,7
11,5
1,8
0,3
7,5
52,8
13,2
7,5
0,8
2,4
6,2
8,7
3,9
418,33
417,09
674,95
375,44
128,81
171,89
107,3
102,4
103,5
105,1
104,5
109,3
109,7
116,9
118,4
120,2
121
110,6
1,9
1,9
3,1
1,7
0,6
0,8
15,67
20 881,73
-482,74
20 398,99
1 114,48
100
105,5
74,5
106,5
116,7
113,2
115,1
119,5
115
122,1
0,1
97
-2,2
94,8
5,2
According to the report GDP amounted to 21,513.5
billion at the current prices in a year. Real GDP
grew by 7% compared to the same period of 2009.

GDP deflator for the period also increased in
comparison with the previous year and amounted
to 115.3%.

The industry share in GDP increased and totaled
at 32,3% in comparison to 2009. The construction
share has decreased by 7,5% in 2010 and 9,1% - in
2009.

The share of manufacturing goods in
GDP was 44.2%, services - 52,8%.

Money-and-credit and financial sectors
Deposits attracted
The total volume of residents' deposits in depository institutions in January 2011
increased
by
1,6%
to
7,513.8
billion
tenge.
Corporate
deposits rose by 2.0% to 5,304.9billion and deposits of individuals by 0.6% to 2208.9 billion.
Money-and-credit and financial sectors
Credit activity, bln KZT
The total volume of bank lending economy in January 2011 decreased
by 0.3% to $ 7,572.9 billion.
Money-and-credit and financial sectors
Key indicators of the monetary system
Money Supply
In January 2010, money supply grew by 0.7% to 8,608.6 billion tenge (from the
beginning of the year - an increase of 0,7%) due to growth in net external assets
of the banking system.
In January 2010, total cash in circulation decreased by 4,7% and amounted
to 1,094.8billion tenge.
Money-and-credit and financial sectors
Key indicators of the monetary system:
Monetary base
The monetary base in February 2011 decreased by 0,43% due to reduction of net
external assets of the National Bank and consisted
2,630.1 billion tenge. Narrow monetary base, without taking into account
urgent deposits of banks with the National Bank decreased by 2.5% to 2143.0 bln.
tenge.
Money-and-credit and financial sectors
Dynamics of major currencies
Exchange rate of KZT to USD changed in the range 146,0-146,96 Tenge per USD
in February 2011. Over February 2011 Tenge has appreciated by 0.6% and at monthend
exchange
rate
of
Tenge
was
146.02
per
U.S.
dollar.
Volume of stock transactions on the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange, taking into account
transactions on additional auctions has increased in comparison with January 2011 by
27,9% and amounted to 7.1 billion dollars. Volume of transactions on-the-counter foreign exchange
market decreased by 12.7% to 2.7 billion dollars.
Macroeconomic indicators
Inflation rate
The consumer price index was higher in February 2011 than in February 2010; as a
result the inflation rate in February 2011 amounted to 8,8% in annual terms.
Macroeconomic indicators
Investments in fixed assets
Investment in fixed assets in January-February 2011 compared with the corresponding
period of last year increased by 16,4% and amounted to 411.6 billion Tenge. The
significant proportion in the total investment in fixed assets in January-February 2011 occupied
mining and quarry development (47,5%), transportation and warehousing (14.3%), real estate
transactions (10.7%).
Macroeconomic indicators
Retail trade
Retail trade turnover amounted to 511.9 billion Tenge in JanuaryFebruary 2011, and increased by 16,2% to the reporting period of 2010. Despite
the drop of retail Volume index for a month to 7,8%, which is associated with
a traditional slowdown of business activity in the beginning of the year, there
is an increase of 9,9% in annual terms.
Foreign trade turnover
Foreign trade turnover in January 2011 amounted to 6.0 billion
USD (compared with January2010. increased by 5,1%), including export - 4,2
billion U.S. dollars (0,7% less) and import -1.8 billion U.S. dollars (21,8%
more). Exports with the countries of the Customs Union was 510.7 million U.S.
dollars or 47.4% more than in January 2010, imports - 796.2 million
USD (64,5% more).
In the total turnover the share of exports in the accounted period is 70%,
import - 30%. Favorable market conditions in world commodity markets and
the growth of production in export-oriented sectors contributed to the increase of
foreign trade turnover for the period.
Foreign trade turnover
Exports of goods
Exports fell in January 2011 by 0,7% and amounted to 4,2 billion U.S. dollars.
A significant proportion of the commodity structure of exports occupy mineral
products (in January 2011 - 70,5%).
The main partners of Kazakhstan for export in the period of January-October 2010
were China (17.8%), Italy (13,1%), Russia (11,9%) and Germany (7,7%).
Foreign trade turnover
Importing goods
Imports in January amounted to 1.8 billion dollars and increased by 21,8% to the reporting
period of the last year. Imports are growing due to increased imports of machinery
and equipment (up 31.8%) and trucks (up 84.7%). The import of passenger cars
greatly reduced (66.5% reduction) due to a reduction in consumer demand and customs
duties on imported cars.
Kazakhstan's main partners for imports are Russia (43,3% of total imports), China (14,8%),
Ukraine (6,1%) and Germany (5,0%).
Implementation of State Budget
State budget revenues as of March 1 totaled 718.5 billion tenge or 85% of the plan. Compared
to the same period last year, revenues increased by 24,8% mainly due to tax revenues.
Tax receipts during the reporting period this year amounted to 649.7 billion tenge
exceeded plan by 26,5%. Compared with the corresponding period last year there is an increase
of 42%.
Expenditures amounted to 636.9 billion tenge or 85.4% of the plan on payments for the
reporting period. The major share in the state budget expenditures during the reporting
period,
which
is
typical
for
the
state
budget
of
Kazakhstan, take care and social welfare(30.6%), education (16,8%), and health (16.9%).
According to the results of February the state budget was formed with a surplus of 20 billion tenge.
Real sector
Industry
Industrial output (goods and services) in January and February of this year amounted to2 311.8 bln.
tenge. In comparison with the last year Volume index of industrial production amounted to:
105,3% to the same month and 98,7% to the previous month.
Thus, in annual terms, growth is continuing in industrial production. However, during the reporting month
(compared to January of this year) against decrease in performance in many sectors there is reduction
of production volume index of industrial products by 1,3%.
In 2011 the leading position on the annual increase of Volume index retained by the manufacturing
industry - 7,7%. This trend continued during the last year and takes place at the
moment. Particularly significant for the year increased production Volume index of computers, electronic
and optical products (164.8%), machinery and equipment(127.2%), manufacture of motor vehicles,
trailers and semitrailers (209.7%), furniture(157, 7%).
Real sector
Production and consumption of electricity
It was produced 7 710million kWh in February 2011. In comparison with the previous
month there was a decrease of electricity generation by 10,1%, which is related to the end
of the heating season. Compared with February of last year electricity production increased
by 5%.
Consumption of electricity in February 2011 amounted to 7 664.8 million kWh, down for a
month by 11,2%. For the year consumption rose by 2.7%.
Surplus in February 2011 in the country was 44.9 million kWh.
Real sector
Loading and unloading of goods by rail
The increase in turnover in February 2011 compared with the reporting period of previous
year (14,8%) is due to an increase in rail freight, pipeline and road transport, whose
share in total turnover is high (54,6%, 26,0% and 18,6% respectively).
Cargo turnover in February of the current year amounted to 29,899 million tone-kilometers(tkm), which
is 14,8% more than in 2010. Turnover of goods by rail has demonstrated an annual increase by 7,4%. The
main factor of increase in the industry - a substantial recover of cargo, which is observed by all modes of
transport from mid-2009 due to the growth of industrial production.
In terms of commodity groups in February there was a slight decrease in shipments for all groups. Oil (by
9,8%), iron ore (by 8.7%), non-ferrous ores (by 4,7%), and ferrous metals (by 7.9%).
Social sector
Employment and unemployment
8,141 thousand people were occupied in the economy of Kazakhstan in the 4th quarter of 2010. With
respect to 4th quarter of 2009 their number increased by 204 thousand persons or by 2,6%. During the 4th
quarter employment fell by 30 thousand persons or by 0,4%.
The unemployment rate in the 4th quarter amounted to 5,5%, decreased compared to the 4th quarter of
2009, as well as to the 3rd quarter of this year.
Conclusions:
Real sector. The stabilization is noticed in industry; Volume index to the reporting period of
previous year has grown steadily.
A similar situation in the trade sector. Revitalizing the economy as a whole, in particular increasing the
income of the population contributed to stabilization of the real sector.

Lending to the economy. As before, a large proportion of bad loans is a major systemic risk of
banks, but their volume, according to the banks estimation is stabilizing. Credit policy of banks
contributes to revive lending.
Growth in world energy prices has put upward pressure on Tenge, helped to restore confidence in the
national currency, which caused the growth of deposits during the reporting period.

Inflation. The rate of inflation since the beginning of the year amounted to 3,2%, while in the same
period last year it was 2,3%. Factors of inflation increase were: positive trend in energy prices, lower
food production (food prices are still growing rapidly), and seasonality. Risk to the inflation acceleration
is primarily an unstable situation on the world stage that is quite capable of affecting the economy of
Kazakhstan.

Exchange rate. At the moment there is a period of commodity currencies strengthening. Tenge is
not an exception. There is a stable tendency of Tenge growth in recent months . In this case, all
existing conditions favor the fact that Tenge trend may continue over a period.

Thank you all for your
attention!