Transcript Prezentace aplikace PowerPoint

Euro in Slovakia
1st Year With the Common Currency And Its First Effects
Igor Barát
Member of the Board, Poštová banka, Bratislava
Plenipotentiary of the Slovak Governement for the Introduction of the Euro (2007-2009)
Katowice 2 June 2010
January 2009: Slovaks with the new currency
•Technically:
•Macro impact:
General atmosphere calm and
positive
High level of public awareness
Enough cash
ATMs, POS operational
No technical or organisational limits
Mandatory double pricing
Dual circulation till 16 January
Extended hours in banks for cash
exchange
Price increase by
• 0,12 – 0,19 % (NBS)
• 0,24% (MoF)
Less than Malta, Cyprus, Slovenia (0,3 %)
Unjustified jumps in prices not registered
Some insignificant cases found in
restaurants, hotels, cafés, services
1
External Factors Dominated in Early 2009
Gas Crises in January – (dramatic drop in RU gas supply)
-80% of industry stopped or significantly limited production
-Most of the economy in crises and emergency regime
Outburst of the global financial and economic crises
-Drop in foreign demand
-Depreciation of CZK, PLN, HUF up to 30% to the Euro
-„Shopping tourism“ of Slovaks
-Decrease in passive tourism
GDP -4,7%
Difficult to abstract the immediate impact of the euro
from other factors
2
Maastricht Criteria
March 2008
ref. value April 2010
2008 (now)
Criterion
inflation (average HICP, %)
2,2
3,2 (0,9)
0,3
interest rates (%)
4,5
6,5 (6,2)
4,5
public debt (% GDP)
29,4
60,0
35,7
public deficit (% GDP)
2,2
3,0
6,8
Exchange Rate Stability
ERM II since Nov. 05
Source: Eurostat, European Commission, MF SR, NBS
3
Inflation remains among the lowests
4
GDP Growth
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
Slovakia
Germany
Czech Republic
EU 27
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
5
Benefits of the Euro Adoption
Direct (immediate) benefits
Indirect (long-term) benefits
•Exchange rate
•trade growth
•increase of FDI
•faster growth/increase of living
stability/elimination of
exchange rate risk
•lower costs of capital
•elimination of some
transaction costs
•higher price transparency
•Higher comfort for people
abroad
•Psychological aspects
standards/progress in real
convergence
6
The introduction of the euro is/was...
100%
90%
8%
5%
11%
14%
6%
15%
80%
11%
8%
14%
7%
10%
15%
7%
3%
5%
5%
19%
16%
15%
NK/NA
25%
70%
32%
60%
34%
38%
30%
27%
47%
50%
51%
40%
30%
3%
4%
50%
Rather bad
decision
43%
39%
35%
39%
36%
Rather good
decision
38%
20%
10%
10%
8%
7%
10%
10%
4/2007
11/2007
2/2008
5/2008
7/2008
0%
15%
11/2008
Definitely bad
decision
20%
24%
1/2009
3/2009
31%
Definitely good
decision
X.09
Focus Agency, SK
7
Slovakia Has The Best Rating In The Region
Standard &
Poor’s
Slovakia
Moody’s
Fitch Rating
JCR
R&I
A+
A1
A+
A+
A
stabilný výhľad
stabilný výhľad
stabilný výhľad
stabilný výhľad
stabilný výhľad
A
A1
A+
A
A
stabilný výhľad
stabilný výhľad
stabilný výhľad
stabilný výhľad
stabilný výhľad
Czech Republic
Poland
Hungary
A-
A2
A-
A-
A-
stabilný výhľad
stabilný výhľad
stabilný výhľad
stabilný výhľad
stabilný výhľad
BBB-
Baa1
BBB
BBB+
BBB
negatívny výhľad
negatívny výhľad
negatívny výhľad
stabilný výhľad
stabilný výhľad
8
Medium-Term Outlook for Slovakia is more optimistic
Source: Consensus Economics.
9
Thanks for Your Kind Attention
Igor Barát
Member of the Board of Directors
Poštová banka, a.s. Bratislava
www.pabk.sk
[email protected]
10
Benefits vs. Costs
financial
transaction costs
benefits
asministrative
transaction costs
exchange rate risks
long-run GDP increase by 7-20 %
costs
currency
conversion costs*
0
0,1
0,2
(% HDP)
0,3
0,4
loss of independent
monetary policy
11
Fiscal Deficit
12
Fiscal Deficit
13
ERM II Exchange Rate Development
Nov 2005
ERM II entry
38,4550
SKK/EUR
Mar 2007
1. revaluation
35,4424
-7,83%
May 2008
2. revaluation
30,1260
-21,66%
July 2008
conv. rate
30,1260
14
Euro Cash Frontloading
Banknotes
188 million ( 7 b. €)
obtained thru ESCB/OeNB Vienna
51 million (950 mil €) subfrontloaded to banks
Coins
499 million (150 mil. €)
Minted in Kremnica Mint, Slovakia
283 million (98 mil €) subfrontloaded to banks
Starter Kits for households and SMEs
Set 45 coins worth 16,60 € (500 SKK)
1,32 mil produced and sold
15
Information campaign
In cooperation with professional
agency: Creo/Young & Rubicam
Information campaign for general
public started in January 2008
Lasted till end February 2009
Domestic sources
6,2 m EUR
European Commission 1,8 m EUR
Total costs
7,9 m EUR
22%
31%
Partners: EC, ECB, OeNB, domestic
institutions
47%
NBS
Government
European Commission
16
Euro myths and fears
„Euro = „teuro“ = price jumps“
„Euro helps businesses, not ordinary people“
„We´ll face psycho shock“
„We´ll need pouches“ (europurses)
„Seniors will face serious problems“
„We´ll become poorest euro nation“
„Neighbours are smarter – they wait“
17
Published
•Daily newspapers
(paid)
•Leaflets
•NBS website
•Partner websites
•Media support
Voting options
•Phone call (paid)
•SMS (paid)
•Internet (free)
RESULT:
Over 140.000 votes
18
Saturation with information
Do you have enough information about the euro changeover
51
35
45
54
79
86
86 87
87
12
11
90
88
9
11
91 89
90
70
42
37
39
28
33
12
20
7
10 9
12
V.
20
XI 06
.2
00
V. 6
20
0
V. 7
06 20
.0 08
6
21 . 20
.0 08
7
07 . 20
.0 08
8
22 . 20
.0 08
8
08 . 20
.0 08
9
24 . 20
.0 08
9
07 . 20
.1 08
0
21 . 20
.1 08
0
07 . 20
.1 08
1
24 . 20
.1 08
1
16 . 20
.1 08
2.
20
08
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
(Slovak Stat´s)?
enough
not enough
19
Public opinion on the euro
What will euro mean for you, personally? (Slovak Stat´s)
60
54
51
45
50
40
42
37
35
38
43
41
40
28
26
29
30
30
27
20
31
29
28
33
31
27
26
10
08
20
.6
.2
00
8
21
.7
.2
00
8
22
.8
.2
00
8
24
.9
.2
00
8
21
.1
0.
20
08
14
.1
1.
20
08
V.
20
07
V.
20
6
XI
.2
00
06
V.
20
X.
20
04
0
benefit
disadvantage
20
Hurdles and troubles
Good Reasons
Everybody needs more money, staff...
Public procurement process
Short time for minting, sub/frontloading
Slow legislation – amendments,
modifications, exceptions
Public sector is always slower
Public myths to be fighted („teuro“,
coins....)
Always possible to find arguments
against
21