Transcript 战略指标体系 - CARNOC.com

Change in Chinese Civil Aircraft Market
Demand and Aircraft Selection
Air China Ltd.
3rd 11, 2008
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Content
A.Comments on Chinese Civil Aircraft Demand
B.Aircraft Selection
2
A. Comments on Chinese Civil Aircraft
Demand
3
Strong economic growth is the driving force of aircraft
demand
• China’s GDP is keeping rapid growth during the past 30 years
compound growth
rate in 26 years：
10.09%
compound growth
rate in 10 years：
9.42%
compound growth
rate in 5 years：
10.6%
4
Aviation market became mature with economic
development. The average annual growth rate of aviation
passengers is 16.4% from 2000 to 2007
• The number of aviation passengers from 2000-2007
Unit：million people
CAGR:16.4%
38,759
33,197
28,435
24,193
13,369
14,874
2000
2001
17,137
17,518
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Source： CAAC
5
Aircraft numbers doubled from 2000 to 2007 with average
annual growth rate 11.4% from 2000 to 2007
• The number of transport aircraft from 2000-2007
Unit: aircraft
CAGR:11.6%
Source： CAAC
6
Passenger and aircraft demand will maintain growth
momentum in the long run
• Historical data showed that passengers will keep rising
–
From 1986 to 2007, compound growth rate for international and domestic capacity
are 16.6% and 16.4% respectively
–
The growth rate of Chinese aviation passengers is 1.7 times of GDP
–
If average GDP growth rate to 2015 is supposed to reach 8-9%, passengers will keep
increasing by 13-15%
•
Aircraft demand will keep strong
–
Chinese civil aircraft Increased from 527 in 2000 to 1134 in 2007
–
Main aircraft manufacturers give a positive look on Chinese future aircraft market
7
Boeing predicted that over 29400 new aircrafts worth 3.2
trillion US dollars will be delivered in the future 20 years to
global airlines, in which Asia Pacific areas accounted for
31%.
Source：Boeing website
8
Airbus predicted that 24262 new aircrafts worth 2.8
trillion US dollars will be delivered in the future 20 years to
global airlines, in which Asia Pacific areas accounted for
31%.
Source：Airbus website
9
In the short term, aviation market demand witnessed a
slowdown due to the effect of global economy. Airlines
need to adjust fleet scale and development speed
• The year of 2007 marked peak of last aviation market growth, from 2008,
airline industry entered into a “winter” period
Profit of global airline industry
(Unit: 100 million dollar)
Growth rate of aviation passenger (%)
-23
-5
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
-41
-75
-130
Source: IATA
11.6%
56
37
-113
2006
2007
7.1%
2008
5.0% 6.0%
3.4%
3.2%
-1.9% -0.1%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
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According to the latest IATA statistic, global passenger
growth rate of June 2008 reached a record low since SARS
2003. The total loss of worldwide aviation industry
amounted to 9.3 billion US dollars
Source: IATA
Jun 08 VS
Jun 07
RPK
Increase
rate
ASK
Increase
rate
Load
factor(%)
FTK
Increase
rate
ATK
Increase
rate
Africa
-1.5%
-0.8%
67.6
-1.9%
-4.7%
Asia-Pacific
3.2%
4.9%
75.8
-4.8%
-0.9%
Europe
2.1%
4.4%
77.9
0.7%
3.5%
LatinAmerican
12.5%
10.1%
73.5
-12.7%
8.2%
Middle-East
9.6%
9.8%
75.5
12.1%
11.8%
North
America
4.4%
6.1%
83.7
4.0%
6.6%
All
3.8%
5.5%
77.6
-0.8%
3.3%
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Most carriers suffered a sharp fall, especially British
airways which located in financial center London was hit
most seriously
•Operation outcome of several airlines during first part of 2008
BA（profit 2Q 2008 before tax,
Unit: 100million pounds）
AF-KLM（net income 2Q 2008，
Unit：100million EUROs）
CX（Profit Jan-Jun 2008,
Unit：100million HK dollars）
-59.4%
-87.6%
-125.6%
4.15
2.98
25.8
1.68
0.37
2007
Source: airline websites
2008
2007
2008
2007
2008
-6.6
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Airlines need to get prepared for passing the cold winter.
Utilization of fleet improved and demand for new aircraft
expended
• Carriers started to reduce aircraft scale but increase utilization
• Airlines is speeding up elimination of outdated aircraft and lots of
second-hand aircraft emerged from the market
• Airlines eyes on more efficient new aircrafts
• Industry crisis led to merge opportunities but the integration
process is full of difficulties
13
Entering into 2008, domestic aviation market appeared
fluctuations even slowdown. But aircraft numbers keep
growing which led to a reduction of utilization and
incompliance with market
Number of civil aircrafts and
passengers in 2008
Passenger turnover
Unit：million people
Aircraft utilization in 2008
Number of
aircrafts
9.4
9.4
9.2
9.1
9
8.9
8.9
8.8
8.5
1
Source :CAAC
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
14
From structural perspective, increase of domestic aircraft
mainly focused on mainline aircrafts
Structure of transport aircrafts in 2000
Structure of transport aircrafts in 2007
Regional
7%
Regional
13%
Mainline
87%
Source :CAAC
Mainline
93%
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Fierce competition led to excessive concentration of
capacity in hub airport, where slot drives rapid growth of
truck route aircraft
• Airport passenger turnover（million people）
First 23 airports account for 80% turnover
Airports have reached or exceeded designed capacity
The lack of slots became more obvious
60000000
50000000
40000000
Most medium and small sized airports are not
fully used and suffer from operation loss. 50 of
them are less than 10 million people per year
30000000
20000000
10000000
1
4
7
10
13
16
19
22
25
28
31
34
37
40
43
46
49
52
55
58
61
64
67
70
73
76
79
82
85
88
91
94
97
100
103
106
109
112
115
118
121
124
127
130
133
136
139
142
145
148
0
Source：CAAC
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Civil aircraft development and composition need to be
better matched with market demand.
• The market need for low passenger volume is high, however this kind of
need is now using the narrow body aircrafts to fulfill
Routes by different PDEW
72
>800
700-800
15
600-700
13
500-600
26
400-500
27
300-400
200-300
100-200
0-100
Source：CAAC
Totally 1012 domestic routes
28%，286 routes
59
74
140
72%，726 routes
586
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As the congestion of Top 20 airports, future passenger increase will
emerge in medium and small sized airports. As a result, there will be
diversified need for aircraft type
Distribution of China airport flow put in 2007
Comments
60000000
•
From 1996-2007,average
increase rate of China
airport turnover is 12%
•
The share of TOP20’s
reach the peak of 80.06%
in
2002 ， after that
decreased every year. In
2007, the share is 76.82%
•
By the end of 2010, 45 new
built regional airports will
be put into use, the share
of
Top 20 will decline
further
•
As the congestion of Top20
airports, future passenger
increase will emerge in
medium and small airports
50000000
40000000
30000000
20000000
10000000
91
96
10
1
10
6
11
1
11
6
12
1
12
6
13
1
13
6
14
1
14
6
81
86
71
76
61
66
51
56
41
46
31
36
21
26
6
11
16
1
0
Share of TOP20 airports
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
81%
79.9% 80.1%
79.0%
78.6%
80%
78.6%
77.9%
79%
77.8%
77.4% 77.4%
76.8%
76.6%
78%
77%
76%
75%
74%
1996
1997
Source：CAAC
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2004
2005
2006
2007
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B. Aircraft selection
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Fleet planning and selection have a direct effect on other
decisions and will be influenced by other planning
Corporate
strategy
Network planning
Business plan
Fleet planning
Infrastructure
Financial
planning
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Fundamental point for aircraft selection is to match
aircraft type with the market and network
• By the end of 2007, CA had 220 aircraft, 212 passenger and 8 cargo.
Average aircraft age is 7.3. Average seat number is 177
• By the end of 2007, CA operated 127 destinations including 79 domestic
and 46 international ones.
• International routes covered 28 countries, 46 cities and 2 regional cities.
Domestic routes reached 79 cities.
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CA is more prudent in capacity arrangement and fleet
increase. Aircraft utilization is more important than scale
Passengers carried by domestic airlines from Jul,
07-Jun,08
CA
18%
Others
25%
ASK increase of CA、CZ and MU (2004-2007)
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
HU
8%
30,000
CZ
29%
20,000
10,000
0
MU
20%
Source：Bombardier market division
CA
CZ
2004
2005
MU
2006
2007
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CA total aircraft number is expected to reach 270
by 2010, most of which are narrow-body aircrafts
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In the future, CA fleet will still be aligned in compliance
with market and corporate strategy
• Long haul wide-body aircraft
– mainly used in international route of hub airports and newly opened
destinations
• Middle and long haul wide-body aircraft
– mainly used in domestic and around routes
• Narrow-body aircraft
– accounting for main part of fleet, flying domestic and around routes
– mainly using existing aircrafts, keep an eye for next generation narrow-body
aircraft
• Regional aircraft
– watching closely the development of regional aircraft
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Request for future aircrafts
Beyond traditional fly safety, future aircraft will be
• environment friendly—lower noise and emission
• customer friendly---comfortable cabin
• airline friendly---reduce operating cost
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Reduction of direct operating cost is the unchanged goal
in aircraft selection
• Economy slowdown, soaring fuel price and fierce competition bring
higher challenge to airline cost control
• To reduce airline cost, aircraft and engine manufactures are
beginning new round of substitution
• fuel efficiency
– During the past 20years, fuel burn decreased from 8 liter per 100RPKs to 5;
future aircrafts should have better fuel efficiency
• reduction of maintenance cost
– Development and application of new material
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Starting from the wide-body aircraft, new round of
technology substitution begins
• Technology applied in A380、A350、B787 will lead the future aircraft
development
•
Similar technology trend appears both for Airbus and Boeing
– Expand application of non-metal materials
– Simplifying system design
– Widely use of digital data and network
– Aircraft health management and monitor (Airman/AHM)
• Product development of wide-body aircraft
– Product line of Airbus has already showed the trend of stable and complete, A380
and A350 will be main products
– Boeing is adjusting its products and 787 will be the future development basis
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Narrow-body and regional jets are seeking new
development
• Development of next generation narrow-body aircraft
–
New technologies in wide-body, such as new material and engine, will
widely used in narrow-body. The target is to reduce overall cost by at least
10%
• CSERIES——a game changer
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
15% better cash operating costs-20% fuel burn advantage
Total life cycle cost improvement
Operational flexibility
Family of Aircraft with full commonality
Wide-body comfort in a single aisle aircraft
Mature 99% reliability at entry into service
Environmentally focused-20 EPNdB Margin to Stage IV
• Development of new regional aircraft
–
Reduce cost by using new technology and new materials
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Conclusion Remarks
• Beneficial from the robust development of domestic economy, China’s
civil aviation passenger and aircraft demand increased tremendously.
• From the long-term prospective, China’s economy still keeps growth
trend, driven from that, domestic passenger needs and aircraft market
will maintain expanding.
• While in the short-term, facing the fluctuation of world economy and
shrink of aviation market, airlines need to adjust their fleet with the
change.
• In addition to guarantee safety, future aircraft should also be friendly to
environment and passenger, and to reduce the operation cost of airline
as best as it can.
• There are full of opportunities and challenges in China aircrafts market.
We believe that China aircraft industry will experience high
development in the near future.
• Wish our own-designed big aircraft project achieve great success!
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Thank you!
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