Transcript Governance and Power Development Planning in Thailand

Governance and
Power Development Planning
in Thailand
Suphakit Nuntavorakarn
Healthy Public Policy Foundation and
National Independent Commission on Environment and Health (Provisional)
www.14iacc.org
www.iacconference.org
www.twitter.com/14iacc
13 November 2010
Power Development Plan (PDP)
and its importance
•
•
PDP is the long-term strategic plan of the Thai power
sector (15-20 years timeframe)
PDP determines the future investment - how many and
which types of power plant?
– For example, total investment of PDP2010 120 billion USD
•
PDP also determines the future impacts of the power
sector, including environmental, economic, social, and
health impacts
Electricity Governance in
Thailand, 2nd Assessment (2006-2008)
• Aim toward constructive engagement to encourage
good governance
• Develop and communicate the concept and
assessment direction to the stakeholders since the
beginning period
• Participate and observe the relevant meetings and
forums, as well as arrange the public forum on Power
Planning for local communities and energy networks
• Through the multi-stakeholders Advisory Committee,
develop the indicators as well as review the draft report
Electricity Governance Assessment
(2nd Assessment)
The part on Power Development Planning2007
•
Apply the indicators from EGT and review the draft report
by multi-stakeholders advisory committee
Comprise of four parts, 14 indicators
•
–
–
–
–
Transparency and access to information
Participation
Capacity
Accountability and redress mechanism
Electricity Governance Assessment on
PDP2007
•
Many governance problems in the PDP2007, reflecting
from many indicators in all four parts
• Leading to questions for the approval of the PDP2007 and
then, problems in the implementation, for example
– much higher fuel price than the assumptions in the PDP
– conflicts and protests in all four IPP projects and none
can proceed to construction until the present
The key recommendation from EGT on PDP
The policy for
Power Development Planning 2010
•
On 7th October 2009, Ministry of Energy announced
the ‘Green PDP’ policy for PDP2010
– Systematic public participation process
– Reduce GHG emission from PDP2007
– Introducing ‘End-Use’ approach for demand
forecast
–
Following the targets in the Renewable Energy
Development Plan 2007-2022 by Ministry of
Energy
–
Open for different PDP options and performing
Impact Assessment to compare these options
Governance problems of the recent
Power Development Plan 2010-2030
• MoE made the first draft of PDP2010 since January
2010 without any public inputs or participation
• MoE made decision not to use the ‘End-Use
Approach’ study, commissioned by themselves
Governance problems of the recent
Power Development Plan 2010-2030
• The first public hearing on draft PDP2010 on 17th
Feb., while the ‘Long-term GDP Growth’ study,
commissioned by MoE is not finished yet.
• The second public hearing on 8th Mar. on draft
PDP2010, only four days after a technical hearing on
the ‘Long-term GDP Growth’ study
Governance problems of the recent
Power Development Plan 2010-2030
• The Senate Sub-Committee on PDP arranged two public
forums on 4th and 11th March, with representative of MoE
said that ‘they will postpone the submission for approval’
due to the ‘Red Shirt’ protest and demonstration
• The National Energy Policy Council approved PDP2010 on
12th March and the government approved on 23rd March,
during severe political conflicts in the society
Installed Capacity at the end of 2030
Unit : MW
กำล ังผลิตไฟฟ้ำ
PDP2010
GDP Base case
Installed Capacity at the end of 2009
New Installed Capacity
29,213
54,005
Decommission
Installed Capacity at the end of 2030
- 17,671
65,547
New power plants 2010-2030
-
Nuclear 1000 MW
CCGT
Imported coal
SPP Co-Gen.
Renewables (VSPP, EGAT)
Import from neighboring countries
5,000 (5โรง)
16,670 (19โรง)
8,400 (13โรง)
6,919
5,348
11,669
PDP2010 (GDP Base case)
Installed Capacity by fuel type
เมกะว ัตต์
PDP2010 : (GDP กรณีฐาน)
70,000
ดีเซล
65,000
พลังงานหมุนเวียน
60,000
น้ ามันเตา
ื้ ต่างประเทศ
ซอ
55,000
7%
7%
ถ่านหินนาเข ้า
50,000
8%
ลิกไนต์
45,000
7%
นิวเคลียร์
40,000
พลังน้ า
35,000
5%
5%
6%
6%
7%
30,000
5%
8%
6%
6%
7%
10% 11% 12%
7%
7%
13% 14%
51%
68% 65% 64% 66% 67% 64% 63% 61% 60%
57%
10,000
0
54%
8%
49%
47%
45% 45%
Imported
coal
13%
11%
12% 11%
9%
5%
5%
4%
4%
4%
4%
4%
6%
7%
5%
7%
5%
7%
5%
7%
5%
8%
5%
11% 10% 10%
9%
9%
9%
8%
9%
9%
9%
9%
8%
8%
8%
7%
7%
2553
2556
2557
2558
2559
2560
2561
2562
2563
2564
2565
2566
2567
2568
2555
43% 42%
15% 17%
13% 15%
4%
7%
5%
2554
44% 43%
51%
7%
6%
7%
7%
18%
16% 17%
Import
7%
6%
5%
7%
18%
18%
15%
9%
8%
8%
17% 18%
Gas
7%
20,000
5,000
8%
8%
15% 15%
25,000
15,000
7%
Renewables
ก๊าซธรรมชาติ
7%
Nuclear
8% 7%
7%
8%
8%
8%
7%
7%
6%
6%
6%
2569
2570
2571
2572
2573
ปี
An Alternative PDP
• Needed new capacity
- Peak demand 52,890 MW in 2030
- Reserve Margin at 15% would need
60,824 MW in 2030
- Not 65,547 MW in 2030 as determined in
PDP2010
- Need better arrangement of all Installed
Capacity
DSM in PDP2010
Saving target of T5 high efficiency light bulb program
2010-2019
ปี
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
MW
43
129
215
344
473
584
498
369
198
ปี
2553
2554
2555
MW
43
172
387
Save 0.3% of
2556
2557
2558
2559
2560
the
peak
demand
731
1,204
1,788
2,286
2,655
in 20 years
2561
2,853
Saving target of DSM program for 2020-2030
ปี
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
MW
240
240
240
240
240
240
240
240
240
240
240
240
ปี
2562
2563
2564
2565
2566
2567
2568
2569
2570
2571
2572
2573
MW
3,093
3,333
3,573
3,813
4,053
4,293
4,533
4,773
5,013
5,253
5,493
5,733
14
DSM in PDP2010
DSM in PDP2010
Press meeting by MoE “T5 high
efficiency light bulb program will
save around 8,708 GWh per year
or reduce the expenses of 26,124
million Baht per year”
Ref. : EPPO 29/09/2009.
http://www.eppo.go.th/Thaienergynews/Energy_News/sho
wNewsDetail.aspx?NewsOID=4701&GroupOID=7&Sub
GroupOID=22&ObjectID=3
Average saving of
1,170 GWh/year
Ref. : EPPO 17th Feb. 2010
http://www.eppo.go.th/power/pdp/page5.html
Save 12% in 10 years and
29% in 20 ปี
DSM&EE Potential in
the Industrial Sector
• Financially viable potential, around 42% of
total demand in the Industrial Sector (Tira
Foran, 2010)
• Consider achievable savings and
achievable facilities
• Market potential in 10 year
– Save 10% of total demand in the sector
– Around 10,498 GWh , 1,680 MW
An Alternative PDP
• Renewable Energy
- Follow the High Renewables scenario
of the draft PDP2010
- Target of 8,581 MW in 2030
- Adjust the growth to achieve the goal
of 5,608 MW in the Renewable Energy
Development Plan 2007-2022 by MoE
Fast Growth of Renewable Energy in Thailand
การเพิม่ ขึน้ ของกาลั งการผลิ ตติดตั้งจากพลั งงานหมุนเวียน
MW
1,400
1,200
1,000
VSPP
800
600
SPP Non-Firm
400
200
SPP-Firm
0
1994
2537 2538 2539 2540 2541 2542 2543 2544 2545 2546 2547 2548 2549 2550 2551 2552
2009
Numbers of Renewable Energy Projects applying
for Investment Promotion
Number of
Projects
Total Investment
(billion Baht)
2008
62
19.9
2009
402
229.0
An Alternative PDP
• Co-generation and Tri-generation, that have
much higher energy efficiency, when
compared to conventional power plants
- Follow the target in the draft PDP2010
8,631 MW in 2030
- But will rebuild the existing projects, which
will be retired during 2010-2030 1,798 MW
• Repowering, or building new power plant at
the site of retired plant
– 13,600 MW
An Alternative PDP
รายการ
เมกะวัตต์
New Installed Capacity 2010-2030
Better arrangement of all Installed Capacity
54,625
5,344
Demand Side Management (15% of the Peak Demand)
8,136
Renewable energy
8,581
Co-generation and Tri-generation
10,429
Repowering
13,600
Can decrease the new installed capacity
46,090
New Power Plant Projects needed for 2010-2030
8,535
Strategic Impact Assessment
on different PDP options
•
•
•
•
•
•
Impact on energy security
Import burden and GDP contribution
GHG emission
Air pollution and waste
Health impacts
Job creation
Should be share and discuss through
public deliberation process
DSM/EE is the cheapest energy option,
but PDP2010 chose the expensive ones and
try to make them look cheap, like coal and nuclear
Comparison of electricity cost from different
options in Pacific Northwest, USA.
Real Levelized Cost (Cents/kWh - 2000$)
12
10
EE
8
Renewables
Coal
6
Gas turbines
Combined cycle
4
2
0
245
514
1598
2202
2560
3444
4934
6735
Cumulative Resource Potential (Average Megawatts)
Resource potential for generic coal, gas & wind resources shown for typical unit size.
Additional potential is available at comparable costs.
Source: Northwest Power and Conservation Council
8945
Investment and fuel costs in PDP 2010
กาลังผลิต
เงินลงทุน
(ปี 2552)
Heat Rate
อายุ
้
การใชงาน
ื้ เพลิง
ราคาเชอ
(ปี 2563)
(เมกกะวัตต์)
($/kW)
(Btu/kWh)
(ปี )
($/MMbtu)
AP
EP
รวม
โรงไฟฟ้ าถ่านหิน
800
1,550
9,125
30
4.01
1.27
1.37
2.64
โรงไฟฟ้ านิวเคลียร์
1000
3,087
10,953
60
0.50
2.60
0.19
2.79
โรงไฟฟ้ าถ่านหิน (CCS)
800
2,632
9,125
30
4.01
1.99
1.37
3.36
800
727
6,800
25
11.12
0.65
3.04
3.69
800
727
6,800
25
14.26
0.65
3.69
4.34
290
437
10,410
20
30.66
2.05
11.69
13.74
โรงไฟฟ้ า
โรงไฟฟ้ าพลังความร ้อนร่วม
(Gas Existing)
โรงไฟฟ้ าพลังความร ้อนร่วม
(Marginal Gas)
โรงไฟฟ้ ากังหันแก๊ส
หมำยเหตุ โรงไฟฟ้ำนิวเคลียร์ รำคำรวม
- Power Plant Equipment
- Site Preparation & Civil Work
- Raw Water System
- Land & Land Right
ื้ เพลิง
- ระบบเก็บร ักษำและกำจ ัดกำกเชอ
- อืน
่ ๆ
โรงไฟฟ้ำถ่ำนหิน
- ใชเ้ ทคโนโลยี Supercritical หรือ Ultra Supercritical
้ ำ่ นหินนำเข้ำประเภท Bituminous
- ใชถ
- ติดตงระบบ
ั้
FGD
ต ้นทุน (บาท/kWh)
(ปี 2563)
Fuel prices in
PDP2010
Prices in the last
10 years (US$/MMBTU)
18
16
14
Dubai Crude
Australian Coal
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2542
2543
2544
2545
2546
2547
2548
2549
ที่มา: http://indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=coalaustralian&months=300
http://indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oildubai&months=300
2550
2551
The problematic regulation and
conflicts of interests
ROIC and Investment Efficiency
• Using Return on Invested Capital
(ROIC) as the main criteria for
setting electricity tariff may lead to
over investment
• since more investment means more
profit
• Strong regulation on investment
plans is needed, but the Regulators
still lack of data, knowledge, and
human resources to check and
balance
• The approval of the tariff is still with
the National Energy Policy Council
ROIC = Net profit after tax
Investment
EGAT 8.4%
MEA 4.8%
PEA
Result :
Over Demand Forecast and prefer high investment options
The cycle of supporting more investment
under ‘monopoly’ power
Power Planning
that prefer
high investment
options
2
Benefits of
utilities,
energy
companies
, etc.
1
Over
Demand Forecast
3
Electricity tariff that allow
the pass on of excess costs to consumers
Ft : Fuel Adjustment Charge
• EGAT: a part of the electricity tariff that increase or
decrease automatically, according to changes in fuel costs
and other uncontrol costs
• The mechanism to pass on the costs to consumers, which
includes
– Fuel costs
– Electricity price for private producers and import (including
profit guarantee, compensation for inflation and exchange
rate)
– Expenses according to government policies (e.g.
Community Development Funds, ‘Adder’ for renewable
energy, etc.)
– Compensation for lower sale (or over investment)
Power Business
35%
PTT
35%
MEA
30%
EGAT
45%
Thai Oil Plc.
15%
บริษัท ไทยออยล์ จากัด
54.99%
CLP
14.99%
RATCH
25.41% 22.42%
EGCO
บริษัท ราชบุรี โฮลดิง้ จากัด
บริษัท ผลิตไฟฟ้ า จากัด
Thai Oil Power
50%
Gluf
Electric
50%
บริษัท กัลฟ์ อิเลคทริค จากัด
50%
ราชบุร ี
อัลลัยแอนซ ์
26%
Banpu
Glow Energy
บริษัท ไทยออยล์ จากัด
56%
ผลิตไฟฟ้ า
อิสระ
700 MW
15%
อมตะ
เพาเวอร์
บางปะกง
112 MW
24%
ผลิตไฟฟ้ า
และน้ าเย็น
14.85%
อมตะ
เอ็กโก
เพาเวอร์
165 MW
25%
100%
50%
ราชบุร ี
เพาเวอร์
ผลิตไฟฟ้ า
ราชบุร ี
ไตร
เอนเนอยี
1,400 MW
80%
3,645 MW
700 MW
ระยอง
1,232 MW
ขนอม
824 MW
100%
แก่งคอย
1,468 MW
100%
Glow
IPP
BLCP
1,468 MW
713 MW
บริษัท โกลว์ ไอพีพ ี จากัด
70.3%
100%
ทีแอลพี
โคเจน
117 MW
100%
100%
ร ้อยเอ็ด
กรีน
9.9 MW
100%
100%
กัลฟ์
หนองแค
สมุทรปราการ
ั่ โคเจนเนอเรชน
ั่ โคเจนเนอเรชน
ั่
โคเจนเนอเรชน
110 MW
126 MW
126 MW
โกลว์
พลังงาน
358 MW
โกลว์
เอสพีพ1
ี
124 MW
100%
กัลฟ์
ยะลา
23 MW
โกลว์เอสพีพ2
ี /
โกลว์เอสพีพ3
ี
514 MW
Conflict of Interests in Ministry of Energy
• The exception in the National Energy Policy Council
Act B.E.2551 (2008)
• Section 5/1. A Member of the National Energy Policy Council
shall:
• (2) not hold any post in a juristic entity operating a business
related to the generation, transmission or distribution of nonrenewable energy or electricity, except for the case that the
Member of the National Energy Policy Council is a civil servant,
who has been assigned by the government or by the Board of a
given state-owned enterprise to assume a post of Board
Member or any other post in that state-owned enterprise
operating an energy-related business or in a juristic entity of
which the state-owned enterprise is a shareholder.
Conflict of Interests in Ministry of
Energy
• The exception in the Standard Characteristic for Board
and Staff of State-owned Enterprise B.E.2550 (2008)
• Section 6 Board member in State-owned Enterprise shall:
• (10) not hold any post in a juristic entity that get the
concession, joint venture, or has the link to the State-owned
Enterprise, except for the case that has been assigned by
the State-owned Enterprise to be Chair of the board, board
member, or executive staffs
Examples (Data in 2008)
Role in the Government
Mr.Pornchai Secretary-General, Ministry
Rujiprapa of Energy
National Energy Policy
Council
Role in the private sector
Chair of the Board, Electricity
Generating Authority of Thailand
Board, Electricity Generating
Company (EGCO) (resign in
2007)
Chair, Sub-Committee on Chair of the Board, PTT (resign
Electricity Demand Forecast in 2007)
Chair, Committee on PDP Chair of the Board, PTT
Revision
Chemical, PTT Aromatics and
Refineries
Chair, Committee of Energy Chair of the Board,
Fund Administrative
Example Annual benefits to Chair of the Board, PTT in 2008
Mr.Norkhun Sittipong, Deputy Secretary-General,
Ministry of Energy
Baht
Role in the private sector
Meeting
Allowance
Bonus
Total
Chair of the Board
770,000
2,200,000
2,900,000
Role in the Government sector
Deputy Secretary-General,
Ministry of Energy
Salary
Addition for
Executive position
Total
804,000
252,000
1,056,000
National Energy Policy Council,
Chaired by PM
Energy Policy Administrative Committee,
Chaired by Energy Minister
Sub-committee on Waste-to-Energy
Sub-committee on EGAT Coordination
Secretary-General
or
the Deputy Secretary-Generals
is Energy Eff. Std.
Sub-committee on
Sub-committee on Demand
Forecast
the chair
of the Sub-committees
Sub-committee on Hydropower
Sub-committee on PDP
Sub-committee on DSM
Energy Policy and Planning Office,
is secretariat
of the Sub-on Environment and
Sub-committee
Sub-committee on an MoE
IPP project
Energy
committees
Sub-committee on
Community Development Funds
Sub-committee on Renewable
Energy
Recommendations to improve
the PDP process
• Change the ROIC to Performance-based regulation
– Introduce Contracted Demand to large electricity users (e.g.
more than 10 MW)
• Improve the Ft by excluding the compensation for lower
sale
• DSM should be considered as one investment option for
electricity supply
• Compare various draft PDPs, according to Government
policies and planning objectives
– Integrated Resource Planning; IRP
– Various forums, dialogue, etc. for public deliberation
Toward Reflexive Governance in the PDP process
Thank you for your attention
email: [email protected]